TJ Hockenson is a fascinating tight end for fantasy football this year. He’s going into 2021 ranked as TE5 by Fantasy Pros, but his potential says he could be number 1 this year. Going into his 3rd season with the Detroit Lions, Hockenson is coming in as the number 1 receiving option for the Lions and it’s not even close. His breakout this year is expected to be big, but I think it could be elite.

Team Situation

The Lions are abysmal at wide receiver this season, especially after letting Kenny Golladay sign with the New York Giants. There are approximately 216 targets that have become available this year with the departures of Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. The Lions receivers that could eat up those targets are Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perrimen and Amon Ra St. Brown. I don’t see Williams and Perrimen lasting the entire season and St. Brown has potential but he’s still a rookie who has a lot of work to do at the next level. 

TJ Hockenson on the other hand should look at those 216 targets and say “Feed me”. This is a guy that at his full potential could be a 150-175 target guy this year. That’s the kind of opportunity that can make anyone a strong candidate for a breakout season. Hockenson is already a big red zone target, who last year caught 8 of 15 for 43 yards and 6 TDs. Imagine his potential this year, it’s literally only him and Swift in the red zone.

One overlooked aspect of the Lions this year is that they improved their 13th ranked offensive line last year. Adding the best lineman in the draft, Penei Sewell, to shore up the right tackle position. This team is going to protect Jared Goff and give Hockenson the chance to get open. The Lions o-line makes me confidently think that TJ Hockenson will put up great numbers this year.

The Lions Defense Sucks

This is self explanatory. The Lions have a terrible defense, ranking last in points allowed and yards given up. The Lions didn’t really add too much over the offseason that would compel people to think they improved. Topping it all off, the Lions 2021 schedule includes 9 playoff teams from 2020. The Lions have drawn an unlucky schedule for a rebuild, but one that will give us an idea of how good Hockenson and Swift are going forward.

This could be the best gift for D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson fantasy owners. The Lions will almost be guaranteed to play from behind during most, if not all their games in 2021. This means more garbage time and inflated fantasy numbers. This could put Hockenson into 10 tgts/game territory this upcoming season and backing up my 150+ tgts claim. The Lions abysmal defense might be the push TJ Hockenson needs to become the TE1 in fantasy football this upcoming year

Sophomore Year Growth

Hockenson doubled his rookie year stats and elevated his usage in the Lions offense in 2020. In 2019, Hockenson had 32 recs, 367 yds and 2 TDs on 59 tgts in 12 games played. Last year Hockenson was targeted 101 times, collecting 67 recs, 723 yards and 6 TDs. One of his biggest improvements was his completion percentage from 2019 (54.2) to 2020 (66.3). This jump from rookie to sophomore year should give the Lions confidence to make Hockenson the number 1 target.

Hockenson is a good route runner and someone who plays to the whistle. Last year he took a regression in yards after the catch (YAC) from 6.3 yds to 4.9 yds. I suspect that was because his opportunities doubled in his sophomore year, and I think it could stabilize or get better in 2021. The one thing that Hockenson needs to work on are his drops because last year he had 7. This is something that every player deals with, but he definitely needs to address the issue before he breaks out. Though he had drop issues this past year, his talent should shine through this upcoming year

Conclusion

TJ Hockenson is a top 5 tight end going into this year with the potential to be the number 1 overall tight end. He’s going to be given all the opportunities in the world this year to become the guy in Detroit. The Hockenson prediction is that he will be given 150 tgts this year, 100 recs, 1000+ yds and 8-10 TDs. This is one of those guys you can get later in your draft that has a sky-high upside. I love the Hockenson pick and think he’s on the rise, but taking the mantle of TE1 in fantasy football might require more than just a great year. At the end of the day I think Hockenson covers his top 5 tight end projection and has the potential to be the top scoring tight end in fantasy football.

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