Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Fantasy Football

Cardinals Projections: Air-Raid

Arizona! I think I am moving there tomorrow because I imagine every house there to be like what Kliff Kingsbury‘s house is like. In case you missed it, last time we talked about the New Orleans Saints. Now, we are heading to the desert, to focus on this unique Cardinals offense. Oh yeah, and Hopkins is here now. So there is that…

QB:

Murray can run and throw, let’s see if he figures out how to make this offense fly in 2020.

Kyler Murray: Passing: 360/556-3,997 Yds, 24 TD: 11 INT
Rushing: 81-475-3 TD: 6 FMBL
Standard: 304.38 (7)
0.5 PPR: 304.38 (7)
1 PPR: 304.38 (7)

Brett Hundley: Passing: A bunch on the scout team. I think they keep Hundley ready just in case.
Rushing: On scout team too. Hundley shouldn’t see the field, but he is valuable if Murray goes down.

Murray is many people’s breakout QB of 2020. I expect he has a solid year, but I think the breakout is a bit premature. I know he added Hopkins, and he should be better in 2020. But, defenses are gonna be more ready in 2020, and while Murray should continue getting better, expecting a leap like what I see other people projecting seems less likely than some growing pains. I love his upside, and he could make me look stupid. However, Arizona’s air-raid offense has film on it now. Let’s see if defenses have been able to catch up in any way.

Kyler has a safe floor. I can’t see him doing much worse than my projections, and he is currently rank 7. But the top 3 hype seems a bit high for me. So take Kyler, he is safe, however, I think reaching over guys like Watson, Wilson, or Prescott is a bit much.

RB:

You know who doesn’t miss Adam Gase? This guy, haha. Drake is loving the Cardinals.

Kenyan Drake: Rushing: 219-1,087-9 TD: 2 FMBL
Receiving: 67 targets, 51 catches, 319 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 204.6 (13)
0.5 PPR: 230.1 (13)
1 PPR: 255.6 (12)

Chase Edmonds: Rushing: 64-271-2 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 24 targets, 17 catches, 116 Yds
Standard: 49.7 (63)
0.5 PPR: 58.2 (63)
1 PPR: 66.7 (63)

Eno Benjamin: Rushing: 13-79
Receiving: 9 targets, 7 catches, 67 Yds
Standard: 14.6 (93)
0.5 PPR: 18.1 (90)
1 PPR: 21.6 (88)

Drake has a hype train for days also. And I get it. He should receive a lion’s share of the RB touches, and with the weapons around him, defenses cannot sell out to stop the run. I love Drake as my RB2, and see RB1 potential. He averaged 80 rush yards and 1 TD every game for the Cardinals in 2019, and he is a safe bet to produce at the RB slot. I have a bit of exposure, wish I had a bit more, but he gets overvalued a lot because of his ceiling.

Edmonds is a guy I struggle with. He looked great in flashes, but Drake is definitely in his way. Drake makes him more of a gadget back for the Cardinals. If Drake goes down, both Edmonds and Benjamin go way up, as I see them splitting the duties as a team. but if Drake stays healthy, neither of these guys will accrue meaningful fantasy stats.

WR:

This was Hopkins upon realizing he didn’t have to deal with Bill O’Brien anymore.

DeAndre Hopkins: Rushing: 2-14, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 146 targets, 91 catches, 1,217 Yds, 9 TD
Standard: 176.1 (5)
0.5 PPR: 221.6 (5)
1 PPR: 267.1 (6)

Christian Kirk: Rushing: 13-129
Receiving: 91 targets, 58 catches, 673 Yds, 5 TD
Standard: 110.2 (43)
0.5 PPR: 139.2 (43)
1 PPR: 168.2 (43)

Larry Fitzgerald: Receiving: 83 targets, 52 catches, 548 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 78.8 (64)
0.5 PPR: 104.8 (63)
1 PPR: 130.8 (62)

Andy Isabella: Rushing: 3-16
Receiving: 24 targets, 15 catches, 195 Yds
Standard: 21.1 (119)
0.5 PPR: 28.6 (117)
1 PPR: 36.1 (116)

KeeSean Johnson: Rushing: 1-5
Receiving: 28 targets, 14 catches, 133 Yds
Standard: 13.8 (139)
0.5 PPR: 20.8 (135)
1 PPR: 27.8 (129)

Hakeem Butler: Receiving: 25 targets, 16 catches, 251 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 31.1 (108)
0.5 PPR: 39.1 (108)
1 PPR: 47.1 (109)

Hopkins is elite. I think he downgraded at QB, but only by a teeny bit. And this offense should suit Hopkins well. His consistent excellence shouldn’t miss a beat for the Cardinals, and you have a surefire WR1 when you draft him. I expect Hopkins to pick up right where he always does, and think he could exceed these projections if Murray and him develop excellent chemistry. I tend to go back heavy early, so I have very limited exposure to Hopkins, but not on purpose. It’s just hard to acquire him drafting my way. I recommend exposure, he has a crazy high floor too.

These other guys were tough. I think Kirk is very talented, and he already has off-the-field chemistry with Kyler. They were college roommates at Texas ATM. But Hopkins is probably gonna demand a large target share, and Fitzgerald is a living legend. They are all gonna need targets. I am also low-key excited to see what Butler can do in 2020, considering how good he was in college. I am good taking Kirk and to a lesser extent Fitzgerald as flex depth, and love taking the flier on Butler. Especially in dynasty. The problem is, Isabella and Johnson have breakout potential also. The addition of Hopkins dampened all their ceilings. And made this WR corps extremely hard to predict. Pretty sure I am gonna be pretty wrong about at least one of these guys. Probably not Hopkins though.

TE:

So many people forget about Maxx Williams. I see him winning this job. And his dynasty potential tickles me.

Maxx Williams: Receiving: 35 targets, 26 catches, 311 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 43.1 (37)
0.5 PPR: 56.1 (37)
1 PPR: 6931 (36)

Dan Arnold: Receiving: 19 targets, 11 catches, 151 Yds, 1 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 20.1 (58)
0.5 PPR: 25.6 (61)
1 PPR: 31.1 (61)

Darrell Daniels: Receiving: 5 targets, 2 catches, 16 Yds
Standard: 1.6 (85)
0.5 PPR: 2.6 (85)
1 PPR: 3.6 (85)

Williams is going to win this job, he is by far the most talented of this bunch. I find myself targeting him in dynasty leagues. He could come out swinging and make 2020 a big year, but I suspect that comes later. Arnold doesn’t do it for me. Williams has the pedigree. And if Kyler outperforms his projections, Williams will likely be a big reason why. He is an excellent blocker, remarkable even. And that will get him on the field. He has displayed pass-catching flashes, and now, with the weapons around him, he should begin to capitalize. It could happen this year. Keep an eye on Williams, as he probably goes undrafted in most formats. A late-round flier pick is where I like him, or on your watch list.

Don’t touch the other two. Arnold becomes semi-relevant if Williams goes down, but nothing to get excited about.

I project the Cardinals to score 1,249.18 points in 0.5 PPR, which is 19th. Saying that out loud feels too low. It also makes me feel like I gotta be wrong. This offense has top 10 potential easy. But I am not certain Kingsbury’s offense will be sustainable in the NFL. After a ton of back and forth with myself, I erred on the low side, but this could be a big mistake. Murray, Drake, and Hop are all safe bets. The rest of them are all intriguing but low-floored. This kind of offense is one I am going to try to get into because I feel less confident about my Cardinals’ projections than any other team.

This Cardinal offense has high flying potential. Will they live up to it? Honestly, I am asking you, I wanna know what you think. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the San Francisco 49ers.