Monday, April 29, 2024

Fantasy Football

Ceilings and Floors: Los Angeles Rams

This is the 30th of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue with the NFC West and the Los Angeles Rams. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Arizona Cardinals. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)

Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback

QB1: Jared Goff

CEILING: Coming off consecutive 4,600+ yard seasons, Goff throws for 5,300 yards, along with 35 TDs. The Rams air it out more without Gurley, and Goff continues to show improvement in his game.

FLOOR: Goff only threw for 22 TDs in 2019, and he had 16 INTs which was a career-high. He struggles without an elite run game and poor offensive line play and throws for 22 TDs and 4,300 yards.

PREDICTION: Goff should be playing from behind often in this salty division. I expect a 4,900 yard, 28 TD year. Last year’s TD regression should not continue, and he has weapons aplenty in this offense.

QB2: John Wolford

CEILING: Wolford has no snaps. Goff has proven to be very durable. If Goff were to drop, Wolford last threw a pass in a game in 2017 in Wake Forest, where he had a nice year. 29 TDs, 3,192 yards passing, to go with 683 yards rushing and 10 TDs on the ground. But projecting anything at the NFL level seems like an idiot’s errand. 20 passing TDs, 3,400 yards passing, along with 8 rushing TDs and 500 yards on the ground.

FLOOR: I am an idiot. Wolford isn’t playing, and if he is, that ceiling has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening. His college numbers indicate it’s not impossible. Neither is me dunking, from a physics standpoint. Still not happening.

PREDICTION: Wolford does have some minimal interest from me in a 16 team dynasty as a stash guy, roster size permitting, especially if you have Goff. If Goff goes down, he gets the keys to McVay’s offense, temporarily. His dual-threat ability could make that interesting. But don’t get your hopes up.

Ceilings and Floors: Running Back

Ceilings and Floors
RB1: Darrell Henderson

CEILING: Henderson rebounds from a lackluster rookie season with more touches, and displays the potential we saw coming out of college, scoring 14 total TDs along with 1,300 total yards. He dominates the RB touches and displays the abilities he teased at Memphis when he averaged 8.2 yards per carry over his career there, including two straight 8.9 yards per carry, higher volume seasons.

FLOOR: Henderson turns out to be a huge bust, relegated to RB3 in LA, and scores 0 TDs along with 184 yards rushing like he did last year. He had a golden opportunity and performed miserably, and there is more to come. His 3.8 yards per rush last year on 39 carries concerns me.

PREDICTION: Henderson offers an upside to me, as he should be given the initial chance to take the lead role in this committee. I expect his disastrous 2019 season motivates him, and he improves dramatically in year two. 8 TDs, 1,100 total yards.

RB2: Cam Akers

CEILING: Akers eats up the majority of the shares of RB touches, and responds with 13 total TDs along with 1,100 yards. He had a terrible offensive line in college and still produced 18 total TDs last year.

FLOOR: Akers is beaten out by Henderson and Brown, and we see a flashback of Henderson’s 2019 disappointment due to lack of touches. Zero TDs, 200 yards. Akers only had 10 plays of more than 20 yards. He had 10 fumbles, too, so ball security is a real concern.

PREDICTION: Akers will contribute, he should turn out to be a quality RB option for LA. But I expect Henderson to take the lead, and see Akers scoring 5 TDs along with 700 yards.

RB3: Malcolm Brown

CEILING: Brown somehow manages to vulture enough TDs to seem relevant, like in 2019. He scores 6 TDs along with 300 yards.

FLOOR: Brown has a career 3.9 yard per carry average. He has not shown anything regarding potential other than his 5 TD 2019 outlier. Zero TDs, 100 yards.

PREDICTION: Brown is going to be the odd man out. His numbers are unimpressive. He will likely see a few touches, but his fantasy relevance is non-existent. 1 TD, 300 yards.

RB4: John Kelly

CEILING: Averaging 2.8 yards per carry over his career, with 30 career touches, his ceiling is making the team.

FLOOR: I mean… it is bad. No touches, no stats, no cover on a sports game.

PREDICTION: Very low, as low as your fantasy team will finish if you are relying on this guy. Might as well draft Barry Sanders.

Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver

Ceilings and Floors
WR1: Robert Woods

CEILING: Woods has averaged 90 touches per year since joining the Rams. He has averaged 13.5 yards per catch for the Rams. His spot as WR1 gets solidified as he records 1,400 yards and 9 TDs.

FLOOR: Woods has only averaged 5 TDs per year for the Rams. His yards per catch average was a Rams career low last year. And he only scored 3 TDs. 3 TDs and 700 yards for a floor.

PREDICTION: Woods should see the volume, but I don’t believe he finishes the year as WR1. I see 5 TDs and 1,000 yards in 2020. The volume should be there. But his lack of scoring prowess concerns me.

WR2: Cooper Kupp

CEILING: Despite playing in four fewer games than Woods, who joined the team at the same time, Kupp has 6 more TDs. That includes the 10 TD performance he just had, which would be a career-high for Woods. Kupp leaves no doubt as to who the WR1 is, and scores 12 TDs along with 1,300 yards

FLOOR: Kupp has missed games. His 13.2 yards per catch average is lower than Woods. He regresses when Woods remembers what the end zone looks like, scoring 5 TDs along with 800 yards.

PREDICTION: Kupp is the WR1 here, for fantasy purposes. I like 9 TDs along with 1,200 yards receiving. He should still be getting better heading into his age 27 season. He is kinda old for a third-year guy.

WR3: Josh Reynolds

CEILING: Reynolds finally gets the touches he deserves and emerges as a legitimate fantasy asset. His 15.5 yards per catch 2019 gives him a springboard into 2020, where he will see more than 26 touches. His ceiling is 8 TDs, 1,000 yards.

FLOOR: Reynolds is surpassed by the rookie Jefferson, fails to impress with more volume, and remains a depth piece for LA. He has only averaged 22.7 touches in his three-year career.

PREDICTION: It is kinda crazy all three of these receivers joined the Rams in the same year. Reynolds struggled to see the field before this year, but he has a real shot at relevance in 2020. I like 5 TDs, 600 yards, and in dynasty, he holds value.

WR4: Van Jefferson

CEILING: Jefferson wins the WR3 job. and scores 6 TDs along with 700 yards.

FLOOR: His college numbers do not impress me. He is entering a talented WR room. He will take some time adjusting to the NFL. Zero TDs, 200 yards.

PREDICTION: Jefferson is a dynasty only option in 2020. He won’t beat out any of the three guys ahead of him in year one, and likely needs a change of scenery for himself or one of the guys ahead of him to get real touches. I like 1 TD and 200 yards.

WR5: Nsimba Webster, WR6: Trishton Jackson

CEILING: These two are awarded coolest first names in the league. Nsimba Webster stars in The Lion King spin-offs, and Trishton Jackson starts a band with his family before his younger brother makes it big and buys a huge ranch to invite all his friends to, who all happen to be children.

FLOOR: Webster’s uncle Nscar takes his spot on the depth chart. Jackson apologizes to his mother, wooo, he is for real! Then he leaves the band, for good.

PREDICTION: None of this is real, just like their 2020 fantasy output.

Ceilings and Floors: Tight End

Ceilings and Floors
TE1: Tyler Higbee

CEILING: Higbee proves to be a reliable TE option, scoring 6 TDs along with 900 yards receiving. His catch percentage has increased every year of his four-year career.

FLOOR: Higbee has never shown big-play ability, he is a better NFL player than a fantasy player. His stats suggest a sure-handed, low ceiling option at TE. 1 TD, 400 yards.

PREDICTION: Higbee is not exciting for me. A career 10.9 yards per catch average and 7 total TDs in 63 games make me look elsewhere for TE depth. He lacks true upside. 2 TDs, 500 yards.

TE2: Gerald Everett

CEILING: Everett stays healthy, and assumes the TE1 role in LA. He has 7 TDs in 45 career games, and his fantasy upside surpasses Higbee’s. He had 15.3 yards per catch in 2017, and he possesses a higher ceiling. 8 TDs, 900 yards.

FLOOR: Everett can’t get touches. Higbee is a better blocker and therefore gets way more snaps. Everett continues seeing little in terms of touches. 2 TDs, 250 yards, which would both tie or set new career lows.

PREDICTION: A healthy Everett is the TE I want exposure to in LA. He possesses more talent and explosive ability and has so far outperformed Higbee from a TD perspective on a per-game basis. I like 5 TDs, 500 yards. A solid backup TE for your fantasy team.

TE3: Brycen Hopkins

CEILING: Hopkins continues where he left off in his senior year at Purdue. His college average of 15 yards per catch translates, he becomes an additional weapon for Goff and Sean McVay, and he scores 6 TDs along with 700 yards.

FLOOR: Hopkins struggles to get touches due to the depth at TE.

PREDICTION: Hopkins’ dynasty ceilings and floors are both higher than redraft. He is not going to get many touches barring injury this year. 1 TD, 200 yards.

TE4: Johnny Mundt

CEILING: He starts Mundt’s Bunts, a vegan cake shop in downtown LA catering to the rich and famous. He has the McVay Veggie Tray, Cooper Kuppcakes, Akers Bakers, Browns Brownies, and limited edition 2019 Gurley Swirleys, a vegan smoothie designed to improve cartilage health. Zero TDs, zero yards.

FLOOR: He starts Johnny’s Johnnys, a place anyone named Johnny can gather to discuss their different last names and their distaste for people named Jon, John, Juan, Jonathon, Josh, and Joseph. Josh Reynolds and John Kelly are not invited. Meetings are Sundays at 1 PM eastern, so nobody shows because everyone is watching the Rams play.

PREDICTION: Tough luck having these guys above him. But he has 5 catches for 31 yards in 25 career games, which gives him a 1.24 yard per game average. That is not even an official NFL stat so it might be better to get to baking because it can’t be much worse than his fantasy career has been so far.

Hollywood! Enjoy this article? Follow me on Twitter to get updates when new content is released @realryanhicks, including the rest of my Ceilings and Floors. Up next is The San Francisco 49ers. Also, check out what else Belly Up Fantasy is cooking up, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your Fantasy Sports needs.