This is the second of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue with the AFC East, with the Miami Dolphins. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Buffalo Bills. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)
Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback
QB1: Ryan Fitzpatrick
CEILING: Fitzmagic casts a spell on the league, passing for 3,900 yards, 29 TD, and winds up as the next QB for the New England Patriots. He then solves world hunger, and develops an algorithm for optimal beard health.
FLOOR: Tua starts week 1, and we never see that glorious beard again.
PREDICTION: Fitzpatrick starts the first few weeks, and hands the reigns to Tua midseason, fading into black as the world grows a little dimmer because the magic slowly dies all around us.
QB2: Tua Tagovailoa
CEILING: 3,500 yards, 30 total TD, with him starting week 1. Miami is actually good, and Tua stays healthy and torches NFL defenses the same way he did college defenses.
FLOOR: He never plays, because Fitzmagic voodoos him into irrelevance. Then, he and Rosen start a boy band and film a documentary about themselves titled The Last Dancers. It’s about how Ryan Fitzpatrick taught them how to river dance so well they gave up football to form a pro dance team, which travels worldwide to crowds of 70-130 people.
PREDICTION: Tua is going to start at some point. His health is the biggest concern. I see plenty of weapons for him when he arrives, and coach Brian Flores seems to have that team pointed in the right direction. Don’t expect Rookie of the Year, but he should be a serviceable backup QB for fantasy teams.
QB3: Josh Rosen
CEILING: Low.
FLOOR: Lower.
PREDICTION: Playing for the New York Mets in 2021.
Ceilings and Floors: Running Back
RB1: Jordan Howard
CEILING: Howard wins the job, then proceeds to produce numbers along the lines of 1,100 yards and 10 TDs in his age 26 season, solidifying himself as a borderline RB1 in fantasy. Just like he has been the majority of his career.
FLOOR: He becomes part of a RBBC, but can’t get anything going. He ends up forfeiting the job to Breida, relegating himself to a backup role for the remainder of his career.
PREDICTION: I like Howard in this situation, and expect a solid season with above-average production from the consistently capable back. 7 TDs and 900 yards seems realistic for him.
RB2: Matt Breida
CEILING: Breida finally gets the run he deserves and capitalizes with 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. Meanwhile, every back San Francisco has gets hurt, and the 49ers watch from the couch as the Dolphins compete in the playoffs.
FLOOR: Breida loses his job to Howard, and serves in the same role he always has, backup. Then he gets hurt, and Laird once again becomes relevant, much to fantasy owner’s chagrin.
PREDICTION: Backup RB with no upside, who scores a couple of lucky TDs and remains relevant NFL-wise, but disappears fantasy-wise.
RB3: Patrick Laird
CEILING: We saw it last year. It wasn’t pretty.
FLOOR: A bottomless pit of despair and sadness.
PREDICTION: Nobody is seeing anything. If you draft him, I have a spot open in one of my fantasy leagues just for you.
RB4: Miles Gaskin, RB5: Kalen Ballage, RB6: De’Lance Turner
CEILING: The three backs ahead of them go down, and Miami is forced to go even lower than Patrick Laird for RB help.
FLOOR: One or two of these guys will contribute to special teams, leaving the rest of them to compete for time as Dwyane Wade‘s training partner. I am rooting for you on this, De’Lance.
PREDICTION; Fantasy irrelevant, do not draft, and do not try to apply for Dwyane Wade’s training partner.
Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver
WR1: Devante Parker
CEILING: Top 10 WR. Parker continues where he left off the latter part of last year and destroys defenses for 1,300 yards and 11 TDs.
FLOOR: Parker fools everyone once again, last year’s flashes were only that, flashes. He has 30 catches, 400 yards, and 2 TDs, reminding everyone that he hasn’t really been very good outside of his surge last season.
PREDICTION: I am high on Parker this year, and expect a 1,200 yard, 9 TD year that forces him into the conversation for best WR in the division.
WR2: Preston Williams
CEILING: 900 yards, 7 TDs, and an official breakout year for Williams who is coming off a torn ACL suffered last season. He becomes a legitimate threat in an emerging Dolphins passing attack.
FLOOR: He is only good for the occasional big play, and he never fully recovers from his injury. His floor is precipitously low.
PREDICTION: A serviceable line of 600 yards, 6 TDs make him a viable depth piece.
WR3: Allen Hurns
CEILING: 800 yards, 6 TD to emerge as the Dolphins WR2.
FLOOR: He isn’t good, for the fifth year in a row, and he winds up being passed on the depth chart.
PREDICTION: He isn’t very good anymore, and his low ceiling leaves little to be excited about.
WR4: Albert Wilson
CEILING: Meh, year seven seems unlikely to be a breakout year, but Wilson manages to score 5 TDs, having 600 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Pretty much any statistical year Wilson has had to date.
PREDICTION: He adds depth to the Dolphins WR corps, but not your fantasy team.
WR5: Jakeem Grant
CEILING: There is no high. He is fast, and scores a couple of times.
FLOOR: There is only low.
PREDICTION: While a solid weapon because of his speed and agility, he has yet to show anything remotely close to fantasy viability. He won’t start this year.
WR6: Isaiah Ford, WR7: Mack Hollins, WR8: Malcolm Perry, WR9: Gary Jennings, WR10: Ricardo Louis
CEILING: There isn’t a lot to get excited about here. Any of these guys could realistically emerge as WR6 for Miami, but targeting a WR6 in your fantasy draft would be questionable at best.
FLOOR: None of these guys make the final roster
PREDICTION: One or two of these guys could find work on special teams, but will provide nothing in terms of fantasy production.
Ceilings and Floors: TE
TE1: Mike Gesicki
CEILING: Elite TE option. He continues breaking out in 2020, and makes the Pro Bowl with a 1,000-yard season, scoring 12 TDs and cementing his status as an elite TE.
FLOOR: I don’t see any way he scores less than 5 TDs, or has less than 500 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: It is going to be a big year for Gesicki, I am loving the AFC East TEs this year. 9 TDs and 900 yards are well within his reach.
TE2: Durham Smythe
CEILING: I mean, have you seen his stats the last two years? Even I can’t convince myself to go higher than 400 yards and 4 TDs.
FLOOR: How about 58 yards, and 0 TDs? Those are currently his career averages.
PREDICTION: He stays consistent. Which is bad.
TE3: Chris Myarick
CEILING: He was not statistically relevant in college, TE3 is essentially his ceiling.
FLOOR: He is living it.
PREDICTION: As you can see, I am not high on many TE3s. Don’t expect that to change much. He doesn’t belong on your fantasy roster barring injury issues.