Thursday, March 28, 2024

Fantasy Football

Chargers Projections: LA’s Austin

What is up, San Diego? I mean Los Angeles, of course. I know I am not the only one still doing that. LAC is going to look very different come 2020. In case you missed it, last time we covered the Denver Broncos. Now, come join me in the city of angels as we take a sneak peak into what the Chargers are gonna be looking like in 2020.

QB:

Herbert will be starting, sooner or later. I mean, look at that hair!

Tyrod Taylor: Passing: 105/167- 1,264, 7 TD: 2 INT
Rushing: 41-223-1 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 103.86 (34)
0.5 PPR: 103.86 (34)
1 PPR: 103.86 (34)

Justin Herbert: Passing: 201/303- 2,468, 16 TD: 9 INT
Rushing: 48-183-2 TD: 6 FMBL
Standard: 178.02 (31)
0.5 PPR: 178.02 (31)
1 PPR: 178.02 (31)

I foresee Taylor starting the first 6 games, and then Herbert takes over. They took him too early not to play him, especially since I don’t believe Tyrod is going to be dominating. However, I expect growing pains from Herbert. I am not getting exposure to either of them, for the simple reason that they will split time, and neither offers crazy upside in 2020. I will be looking harder at Herbert in 2021.

That being said, having either of these guy as your third QB is a calculated move I wouldn’t be against. There is plenty of talent on this offense, and if either guy can take advantage of that, you could be looking at a huge steal here. Neither are going early, so feel free to take a shot. But using either as your QB1 is crazy. Not the so crazy it just might work kinda crazy, but the eating Tide Pods crazy.

RB:

Ekeler is going to wreck in PPR leagues. He is the ultimate safety blanket for both QBs.

Austin Ekeler: Rushing: 141-678-3 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 97 targets, 75 catches, 819 Yds, 5 TD
Standard: 194.7 (16)
0.5 PPR: 232.2 (11)
1 PPR: 269.7 (7)

Justin Jackson: Rushing: 91-485-3TD
Receiving: 21 targets, 13 catches, 85 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 81 (51)
0.5 PPR: 87.5 (55)
1 PPR: 94 (55)

Joshua Kelley: Rushing: 82-398-4 TD
Receiving: 8 targets, 5 catches, 34 Yds
Standard: 67.2 (57)
0.5 PPR: 69.7 (59)
1 PPR: 72.2 (61)

Austin Ekeler, ladies and gentlemen. This guy took the league by storm in 2019, becoming a pass-catching machine. He holds similar value heading into 2020, especially considering the unknown at QB. Ekeler is elite in PPR formats, and flirts with elite outside them. He had an 85.2 catch percentage in 2019 and caught 92 balls. 92! On 108 targets. He also had 11 total TDs. He is not a secret anymore, you are going to have to grab him early. But I will. His value as a pass-catcher is undeniable.

Here is where things get tricky. Jackson looked good in a small sample size last year, averaging 6.9 YPC. That is good, period. But Kelley looked solid at UCLA also, and I was high on him coming out. Both these guys are serviceable or better. Pick and choose folks, one of them is gonna be the RB2, and carry some value in 2020. Alternatively, they split RB2 duties as I project and annihilate all fantasy value between them. If I had to bet, I would bet on Kelley. No Jackson. Crap, listen to your heart and take Ekeler. The Chargers let Gordon go because of him.

WR:

Both these guys can ball. It also looks like they are about to dance-off.

Keenan Allen: Rushing: 3-22, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 118 targets, 79 catches, 911 Yds, 5 TD
Standard: 122.3 (36)
0.5 PPR: 161.8 (34)
1 PPR: 201.3 (31)

Mike Williams: Rushing: 3-16, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 93 targets, 51 catches, 951 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 131.7 (31)
0.5 PPR: 157.2 (36)
1 PPR: 182.7 (36)

Andre Patton: Receiving: 18 targets, 9 catches, 111 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 17.1 (131)
0.5 PPR: 21.6 (131)
1 PPR: 26.1 (131)

Joe Reed: Receiving: 9 targets, 6 catches, 54 Yds
Standard: 5.4 (154)
0.5 PPR: 8.4 (154)
1 PPR: 11.4 (154)

K.J. Hill: Receiving: 8 targets, 4 catches, 28 Yds
Standard: 2.8 (171)
0.5 PPR: 4.8 (168)
1 PPR: 6.8 (168)

I nearly outright projected this, but erred on the side of caution. Mike Williams is better than Keenan Allen in fantasy. Yikes, I know, it’s hard to believe. But believe it. I think losing Rivers hurts Allen more than Williams. And I feel like Williams has the higher ceiling. I was trying to be safe in projections, but I have a sneaky suspicion Big Mike becomes the WR1 for the Chargers in 2020. I am not betting my house on it, but I would bet your house on it. Allen is a catch machine, don’t get me wrong, and I will target him late. But Williams has a much lower ADP and as a result, I am getting way more exposure to him.

Ignore the rest of these guys. Completely. In dynasty, feel free to look at Reed late, but outside of that, just say no. Williams and Allen are gonna eat. And Henry and Ekeler will too. There aren’t enough balls in LA to feed them all. Hahaha cheap shot at Hollywood yes I did. But seriously, there is nobody with balls in LA. And none of these other receivers are worth your time or draft investment.

TE:

I know it’s camera angle, but doesn’t Henry look like hes 7 feet tall here?

Hunter Henry: Receiving: 85 targets, 57 catches, 689 Yds, 4 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 91.4 (12)
0.5 PPR: 120.4 (9)
1 PPR: 148.9 (8)

Virgil Green: Receiving: 13 targets, 7 catches, 50 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 11 (68)
0.5 PPR: 14.5 (69)
1 PPR: 18 (69)

OK, let’s get real here. Hunter Henry is a beast. He has just struggled to stay on the field for 16 games. I am assuming he plays more this year, but the QB situation leaves much to be desired. That being said, he has incredible upside at the TE position. A healthy season could make him a top-three TE, with consistent QB play. I am slightly lower on him simply because I don’t trust these QBs. In dynasty, he has incredible value and I want lots of exposure. But in 2020, I am slightly low on him.

That being said, draft him high if you like. The upside is real. And if the quarterbacks perform beyond my expectations, his projections could look really low in a healthy year.

Virgil Green is an afterthought unless/until Henry is injured. And even then, he is only a streaming option. He does not need to be rostered.

I project the Chargers scoring 1,159.98 points in 0.5 PPR. That’s 27th. While that seems low, there is still a lot of value and upside here in this offense. There is plenty of talent, and even above-average QB play could vault them into the top half of the NFL for fantasy offenses. So be careful, but getting exposure to this offense makes sense if the value is right.

Charger fans, I wish I could tell you what 2020 is going to look like. The talent is all over, but this is a new-look offense. Buckle up, it could get bumpy! Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Kansas City Chiefs.