Last week, I surprised myself by correctly predicting five of the statements I made (two were incorrect and one game was canceled with Covid-19). This would have been helpful if I had money to gamble. I would be rich. Moving on, I hope this week’s bets are more accurate and will help you make good wagers for the slate of College Football games. Hopefully we don’t have any further cancelations from Covid-19 and we can have a full slate of games that makes Saturday special. Here are my eight bets: one over, one under, two cautious picks, two favorites, and two underdogs.

My Bets on Overs and Unders

OVER: Wisconsin versus Northwestern (Over 43.5)

As I have mentioned before, for College Football any total below 50 points is a low total. 43.5 is incredibly low and the assumption has to be that both defenses are going to show up on Saturday. Considering that Wisconsin’s defense has only been allowing 9 points per game and Northwestern’s defense has been allowing 14 points per game, there is good reason to believe that this game will become a defensive struggle. However, the over is too enticing to bet on this game with the assumption that one of the offenses is going to show up on Saturday. Both offenses are well-balanced and have shown that they can run up the scores. One would think that Wisconsin would be the team to pull ahead and cover the spread by themselves. Expect Northwestern to make this a close game and potentially score late for a backdoor cover.

UNDER: Oregon versus UCLA (Under 66.5)

Unlike the Wisconsin-Northwestern matchup, the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout of some variety to occur in this game. 66.5 points have to be one of the highest totals on the weekend. Yet, many are picking the Over in this game. The assumption is that Oregon is going to score at least 40 points on a terrible UCLA defense and the UCLA offense will do their part to cover the spread.

There are two things to consider when taking bets and they both involve Oregon. First, Oregon is going to step up on defense. The Ducks held Stanford to only 14 points and Stanford is just as good if not better than UCLA. The second thing to consider is Oregon running out the clock. We know Oregon likes to run the ball downhill and run up the score in the process. The problem is in the 4th quarter, the Ducks might just run out the clock if they are ahead by enough. The Over will cover if UCLA does their part on offense. Frankly, betting on UCLA isn’t going to work if you ask me. With this in mind, consider taking the Under.

Intriguing but be cautious

Alabama (-30.5) versus Kentucky

The line is beyond high for Alabama. If you place your bets on the Crimson Tide, you are betting on Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith to all have great days. You have to feel confident in that happening but can Alabama win by 31 points or greater? This is an intriguing bet since you know that Alabama is going to win and run up the score. For anyone who is a fan of ‘Bama, you should take this bet since you can watch them win by a lot. For the common bettor, I would take this one with a ton of caution.

Clemson (-34.5) versus Florida State

Like Alabama, you know Clemson is going to win but will they cover the spread? Clemson has not played since their upset loss in South Bend to Notre Dame in overtime. Clemson is returning with Trevor Lawrence and looking to make a statement for why they deserve to be in the College Football Playoff. Florida State is a shell of their dominant selves, with a 2-6 record and still searching for the formula to return to the glory days. Expect Clemson to win handily, but be careful betting on them with this high of a line.

My Bets on Favorites

Oklahoma (-7.5) versus Oklahoma State

I’m surprised that the line is this close considering how both these teams have played as of late. Oklahoma State has only lost one game all year but that loss came two weeks ago to the Texas Longhorns. The Oklahoma Sooners had two early losses, but since then have looked like the best team in the Big 12 and have seen drastic improvement from their quarterback Spencer Rattler. Oklahoma hasn’t lost to Oklahoma State since 2014 and has beaten the Cowboys by ten or more points in four of those games. The Sooners should continue their hot-streak and don’t expect them lose the rest of the season. Lincoln Riley is the type of head coach that once he figures out how to assert his quarterbacks into the air-raid, the offense becomes impossible to stop. I would take Oklahoma here and expect them to win by double-digits.

Iowa State (-10.5) versus Kansas State

I have been a big fan of what is happening at Iowa State this season. At 5-2, they have finally broken through the years of hype and are now poised to potentially play in the Big 12 title game. The offense has surprised many with Brock Purdy finally fulfilling his potential at quarterback and the tight end duo of Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen being matchup nightmares for any defense. While the 4-2 Kansas State won’t be an easy opponent, we can see a clear talent gap between Iowa State and Kansas State. Expect Iowa State to win this game and potentially blow out Kansas State to continue their incredible season.

My Bets on Underdogs

Indiana (+20.5) versus Ohio State

I’m slightly surprised that Ohio State is favored by 20.5 points. Yes, they are arguably the best football program in the nation, and yes they have owned the Big 10 in recent years. However, Indiana has been the sleeper of the year thus far. Indiana is 4-0 and it doesn’t appear to just be a fluke. They have shown they can win in shootouts or in defensive struggles in the early part of the season. Ohio State has more talent in every position than Indiana and should win this game. I would bet on Indiana in this situation since I have confidence in a closer game, plus there is more than enough potential here for an upset. Indiana already shocked us a few times this year already.

Arkansas (+106 ML) versus LSU

This game has turned into a pick ’em game. LSU is favored but only slightly, making any bets for Arkansas might as well be a bet on the Money Line for better odds. LSU hasn’t played in a game since October 31st and one would think that the long time off should help them. There are a few arguments for the 3-4 Arkansas program. The first merit is the Razorbacks being the home team. It’s hard to quantify the value of being at home but Arkansas is 2-1 at home compared to 1-3 on the road. Another thing to consider is that this has become a lost season for LSU. While the Tigers are looking for a bounce-back game, Arkansas is looking for a statement win in hopes that it can rejuvenate this season.

The lines and odds are via vegasinsider.com while the Money Line is via Fanduel Sportsbook.

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