Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Consistency, a QB commodity

When it comes to Fantasy Football, consistency is key in winning on a weekly basis. Through week 10, we have a pretty good sample-size as to who has consistently produced and who has not. Let’s take a look at all the guys who have put up the numbers on a weekly basis. For QBs, we are looking for top 12 finishes. Scoring is PPR. Stats courtesy of FantasyPros.

QB:

Kyler, you fantasy darling. He hasn’t finished outside the top 12 yet!

At least one top 12 finish is required to make the list. But consistency is what we are after here.

Kyler Murray: 9/9(100%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 4.67

Kyler “Consistency” Murray has impressed in 2020, and has yet to finish outside the top 12. Outside week 4 when he finished 11th, his lowest finish is week 3 at 6th. He also boasts three straight top 2 finishes.

Russell Wilson: 7/9(78%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 7.11

Wilson has been excellent in 2020, and outside a couple games, his consistency has been admirable. But he has had two duds, including last week’s 19th place finish. He needs the run game, aka Carson, healthy to thrive.

Aaron Rodgers: 7/9(78%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 8.78

Rodgers has rivaled Wilson in consistency, although his duds have been a bit worse(remember the Tampa game). Considering the weapons he has missed for stretches, Rodgers is having a brilliant 2020.

Justin Herbert: 6/8(75%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 8.5

After finishing 13th and 19th in his first two starts, Herbert has set up camp in the top 12, reaching it in 6 straight contests. He is the real deal in fantasy and should stay top 12 for the remainder of the year.

Patrick Mahomes: 6/9(67%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 8.56

Only Mahomes could finish top 12 at this rate and still have fantasy owners disappointed. That being said, he has three number 1 finishes, tops among his peers. He is still QB1 because of his ceiling.

Josh Allen: 6/9(67%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 9.2

Allen had a rough stretch of weeks 5-8, but outside those subpar performances, he has been on fire. He displays odd consistency with his stretches, and is currently back on a hot streak.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 4/6(67%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 12.83

Ahh, Fitzmagic, you were fantasy gold while you lasted. Tua has yet to finish top 12, and when you consider Fitzmagic finished 13th in his last week starting, the Harvard grad was actually a model of consistency in 2020 before Tua unseated him. If Tua goes down, Fitzmagic instantly becomes fantasy gold once again.

Cam Newton: 6/9(67%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 13.38

Cam winds up here due to his running game prowess, and not much else. There isn’t much going on with New England’s offense outside the ground game with Cam and Harris, so the fact that he has managed to finish this high this many times is a testament to his physical gifts as a runner. Until his body inevitably breaks down, his legs provide a consistency not many QBs can match.

Dak Prescott: 3/5(60%) top 12 finishes. Avg. QB Rank: 9.2

Dak caught fire after a subpar week 1 performance, but injuries derailed what looked to be a fantasy season for the ages. Look to him with confidence in 2021, this guy has the skills and weapons to continue with his fantasy onslaught post-injury.

Tom Brady: 6/10(60%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 13.3

Brady has had a couple terrible weeks so far, but outside those, he has been exceptional in 2020. He doesn’t provide the consistency of some of the guys above him, but possesses a ceiling not many other QBs can match.

Deshaun Watson: 5/9(56%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 11.78

Despite the rough start, Watson has seemed to turn things around lately. Even though it feels like he is having a terrible year, he has only finished lower than 17th once, a 21st place finish in week 2. The consistency has been there, but the offense around him? Not as much.

Matt Ryan: 5/9(56%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 14.44

Ryan started off on fire, but cooled significantly before trending back in the correct direction in week 6. Gurley has a nose for the end-zone which caps Ryan’s ceiling, but he has moved back into the upper echelons the last few weeks.

Lamar Jackson: 4/9(44%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 13

Lamar, how many fantasy seasons have you killed this year? 4 outta 9 top 12 finishes is not the MVP we saw last season. Consistency has not been the game for Jackson in 2020, and while he still has a fantastic ceiling, the floor feels very shaky.

Ben Roethlisberger: 4/9(44%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 13.89

Ben has zero running game utility. But despite that, he has as many top 12 finishes as Lamar. When you consider their price points, that makes Ben great value at where he was drafted. You could argue the Steelers D caps his ceiling slightly, but there are weapons galore here and Ben knows how to use them.

Drew Brees: 4/9(44%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15.78

Usually a model of consistency, Brees had been off this year compared to his normal standards. His arm didn’t look right, and losing MT hurt. Who knows how much time he will miss, but he isn’t your father’s Brees anymore.

Carson Wentz: 4/9(44%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15.89

Wentz had a nice stretch of weeks 3-7, but the Philly offense, and the NFC West as a whole has been a dumpster-fire. Look for consistency in other divisions, because while Wentz has been more consistent than some, he hasn’t done it enough to feel safe as a week-to-week starter.

Kirk Cousins:4/9(44%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 17.11

Despite his 4 top 12 finishes, Cousins has lacked in the consistency department in large part due to Cook going nuclear. Cousins is the value-bin consistent guy. His ceiling doesn’t blow you away, and his floor is anything but safe. That being said this offense can produce points, and his weapons can house TDs.

Teddy Bridgewater: 4/10(40%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15.3

Bridgewater has been impressive in terms of his accuracy and ground game. Despite the few duds, he has impressed in 2020 and should be taken seriously as a fantasy starter, despite my own reluctance to do so initially. He has the weapons and the Coach/OC combo to succeed both on the field and in your lineups. Just be aware that duds are possible. His health is now concerning too.

Ryan Tannehill: 3/9(33%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 13.89

A few tough games keep Tannehill out of the elite levels of consistency, but he has been relatively solid this year. Not Having AJB and Davis for stretches hurt his upside, and the fact that he still checks in tied for the 13th highest average weekly fantasy finish is a testament to his relatively safe floor.

Matthew Stafford: 3/9(33%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15

Stafford still has fantastic upside when his weapons are healthy, which has not been often in 2020. But the Lions inconsistencies sadly run over into Stafford’s performance, and he is no guaranteed start on a weekly basis. Considering the injury to his throwing thumb, expecting more consistency moving forward seems brave.

Joe Burrow: 3/9(33%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15.33

Burrow has had his typical rookie struggles, but the upside is clearly there and in time this guy will be a fantasy star. He is worth having due to his exciting upside, but don’t expect him to have it all together yet. Consistency is what he needs to work on to take that next step.

Jared Goff: 3/9(33%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 17.89

Goff has not impressed this year. If this was about QB mediocrity, Goff would jump up this consistency list. His inconsistency since that big 2018 year has become concerning, despite the excellent WRs at his disposal. I am not sold moving forward.

Gardner Minshew: 2/7(29%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 15

Minshew finished as the 31st ranked QB week 3, but outside that, he has been remarkably consistent. He has three 13th finishes and one 14th to add to his 9th and 12th place finishes. Believe it or not, Minshew had been one of the most consistent performers on a weekly basis, despite his own hand injury. If the Jags move on, I suspect Minshew makes them regret it. Unless Gase gets him.

Drew Lock: 2/7(29%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 21

Don’t look now, but Lock has 2 top 12 finishes in the last 3 weeks. He was bad to begin the year, but looks to have figured some things out lately. I wouldn’t tout his consistency, but he has played admirably recently and his youth and upside suggest there could be more of that moving forward.

Mitchell Trubisky: 1/4(25%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 22.5

Not listed: Nick Foles. Haha, yes, Trubisky finished as QB8 week 1, granting him access to this exclusive list. And his legs make him a more intriguing fantasy option than Foles. However, the Bears offense has been a hot mess for most of the year and neither of these QBs can fix that.

Derek Carr: 2/9(22%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 18.22

If you are looking for a consistent QB2 for your superflex, or a reliable backup, look no further. Carr has impressed in 2020, and despite being a better NFL QB than fantasy QB so far, you could do worse than Carr as your second option.

Philip Rivers:2/9(22%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 20.11

Rivers has displayed the wrong kind of consistency in 2020. The sucky kind. His 6th and 8th place finishes in weeks 8 and 6 respectively(would you look at that), have salvaged an otherwise underwhelming year in fantasy. Old noodle-arm is a desperation play at best, as he is technically capable of big games but not likely to have them.

Daniel Jones:2/10(20%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 20.9

Jones looked to be on a similar path to Rivers before a recent heat up for the second-year signal-caller. Losing Saquon made consistency virtually impossible, but he does offer upside as your QB2, and his newly discovered sprinter speed aides in raising his floor.

Jimmy Garoppolo: 1/6(17%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 23

Outside a week 6 outlier against the Rams, Jimmy G has been a hot mess, and not worth rostering. Jimmy G to Pats in 2021?

Sam Darnold:1/7(14%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 25

Darnold is likely done for the year, and the Jets suck. Enough said.

Baker Mayfield:1/9(11%) top 12 finishes. Avg QB Rank: 21.56

Baker has not lived up to his 2018 hype, and displays the kind of consistency Rivers does, which is to say the not so great kind.

Show Your Work!

Here is the data used, again courtesy of Fantasy Pros

AVG12345678910
K Murray4.675561155212
R Wilson7.11142147521019
J Herbert8.5013197414119
P Mahomes8.561471171102313
A Rodgers8.7821773278555
D Prescott9.201914121
J Allen9.2033361517201924
D Watson11.7812211715619916
R Fitzpatrick12.833211810313
L Jackson13.0041823518617197
T Brady13.30103092192039301
C Newton13.386228112812812
R Tannehill13.89168242317132121
B Roethlisberger13.891116141124211873
M Ryan14.44762725252161012
G Minshew15.001393113131214
M Stafford15.00211915921153266
T Bridgewater15.30152921412231320610
J Burrow15.3320101320291441117
D Brees15.7824221019101081326
C Wentz15.892324111214472424
K Cousins17.119331222177251811
J Goff17.892912526818182322
D Carr18.2225142016912212225
J Luton18.501423
G Gilbert20.0020
P Rivers20.112226252726862813
N Foles20.131624221525151529
D Jones20.901731332824191114248
D Lock21.00264028227420
B Mayfield21.5630202221162562628
K Allen22.2523161931
A Smith22.33312214
M Trubisky22.508232633
T Tagovailoa22.7531281715
J Garoppolo23.0018253292430
N Mullens23.00321829162518
J Flacco24.5036202616
S Darnold25.0028263282927
D Haskins25.5027282918
J Driskel26.67153035
A Dalton28.5035302227
C Daniel29.0029
C Keenum30.0030
B Dinucci30.003129
B Rypien30.33342334
J Stidham30.503130
C Beathard30.67302834
T Taylor31.0031
T Hill31.00333440342732222730
B Hoyer32.0032
J Hurts33.383535333429333236

Thanks for reading past that giant table. As always, you can find on me Twitter @realryanhicks. I love feedback, and love talking football even more. Follow @BellyUpFantasy, they will fulfill all your fantasy… football needs. Look for the RB, WR, and TE versions of these articles in the near future. Until then, happy football!