These past few weeks, I have seen many people share their conclusions on fantasy players purely based on their fantasy numbers. Because of this, I have seen many people sell low and buy high on various fantasy players. Context is key in fantasy and this article will give you an idea of things to look for context-wise.

Here are some things to keep in mind when looking at these numbers to put those stats into context.

Injuries (and Missed Time)

This may seem obvious, but there are people that complain about a player’s performance, completely oblivious that they were removed from the game due to injuries, ejections, or some other sort of reason for missed time such as a blowout.

However, there are more indirect ways that injuries can affect players. Injuries to key pieces in the offensive line hurt the entire offence (except maybe dump-off targets). Another example is that injuries to receivers can hurt the QB and potentially give RBs more volume.

Matchups

Some defences are better against the run, others are better against passes, and others are just bad. Even within these categories, some are better against slot receivers while others are better against field stretchers, and yet others are better against TEs. The offensive matchups matter too. Teams facing poor offences might not need to throw as much. Teams facing high-scoring offences might need to pass more to keep up with the other team.

Weather

Not all NFL franchises play with roofs over their heads. Because of that, heavy rain and snow can hinder air yards and force the teams to move the ball on the ground. However, trying to run in mud can also be very difficult. The wind can also help or hinder the trajectory of the ball through the air.

Team

This is more of a factor for dynasty leagues. Upgrades or downgrades at QB can drastically affect an offence. The same applies for offensive lines and coaches. You need to consider talent and situation.

Wrap Up

Don’t overreact. It has only been two weeks, which is a relatively small sample size to make strong conclusions about players. Of course, some of these contextual factors will not change, so in that case, it can make sense to react accordingly. But I have seen many people overreacting to even one game performances whose abnormal numbers can easily be explained through context. Context is key in fantasy and with other stats. If something is not as expected, check to see if context is the reason for it.

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