With all the crazy moves this NFL off-season, two jump out to me for this upcoming fantasy season. Davante Adams being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders and Tyreek Hill being moved to the Miami Dolphins. Both are talented receivers that have put up solid numbers throughout the years. But moving on to new digs, are they still worth being your fantasy WR1?

Both are going into new systems, new OCs, and the most important part, new quarterbacks. Off the jump, Davante looks like he has the advantage. He and Carr have a relationship going all the way back to college. So naturally, you would think this will be a smooth transition. But let’s not mince words, Carr is no Aaron Rodgers. Let’s get right into it and dive into my favorite part… THE NUMBERS.  In PPR scoring, Adams finished second in fantasy scoring for wideouts and Tyreek sixth. Also, their average draft position was eighth for Adams and 13th for Tyreek. 

Derek Carr last year put up decent numbers last year throwing for 4,804 yards with 28 TDs. Not shabby numbers at all.  He had some pretty good weapons to throw to last year. His leading receiver was Hunter Renfrow, 103 receptions on 128 targets and 9 TDs. Darren Waller missed six games and was still able to collect 55 receptions on 93 targets. Now with adding Adams to the mix makes for a scary trio. But Adams throughout his career has never played alongside weapons of this caliber. So having Renfrow and Waller will be beneficial to him. Defenses won’t be able to key in solely on Adams and will open up the field for Renfrow and Waller. Pick your poison with the Raiders this year. 

Last year Adams put up 121 receptions on 168 targets with 11 TDs. The next closest receiver on Green Bay had 40 receptions on 60 targets. So clearly Adams was the Alpha Dog in Green Bay. With all that being said, with Adams having Carr as his QB, he will continue to be a fantasy WR1 you can trust and still draft early. 

Tyreek on the other hand is going into a totally different situation. He has no previous relationship with Tua Tagovailoa and let’s just put this out there from the jump. Tua is not Patrick Mahomes. Tyreek is not only leaving a high-powered offense in Kansas City but also leaving behind offensive genius, Andy Reid. Mike McDaniel has only been an OC once in his career before being hired as the Head Coach in Miami. This leaves me with a lot of guessing and wondering and the weapons in Miami are nice but not as sexy as Vegas.

So again, let’s dive into THE NUMBERS. While Tua had great accuracy, 67.8 percent, which was seventh in the league. His yards per pass attempt was 6.8 yards, which made him 23rd. Mahomes on the other hand 7.4, which was good for 13th. Mahomes also attempted 58 passes over 20 yards+, while Tua sadly was only half that at 30. So don’t be surprised with an adjustment period down in South Beach. 

Tyreek with that world-class speed only ranked 17th in YAC (yards after catch) and Waddle was 19th. So thinking Tua can just dink and dunk with these receivers might be a problem. Some see Mike McDaniel using Tyreek the same way they used Deebo Samuel in San Francisco. I can see it, but can McDaniel figure that out fast enough.

Let’s get back to the weapons in Miami. Jaylen Waddle put up great numbers in his rookie season. 104 receptions on 140 targets. Mike Gesicki had 73 receptions on 112 targets. Not bad at all. I believe with adding Tyreek this should elevate each player. Hill will open up the underneath game for both Waddle and Gesicki. But if Tua can’t locate Tyreek downfield, how long will he be happy running downfield with no love.

Tyreek will still put up numbers next year, but as a solid WR2, not as a fantasy WR1. I don’t see as many explosive plays for him this upcoming season. Draft him with confidence but lower your expectations if you think you’re going to see Tyreek of old. 

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