Friday, March 29, 2024

Betting, Fantasy Football, Gambling

DFS Week 14 Values and Picks

Week 14 has gotten underway with the Rams handling business against the Patriots. Now that Thursday Night Football is complete, it is time to take a look at some DFS plays for Sunday’s slate. This week usually stands as the first week of the Fantasy Playoffs or the last week before playoffs begin. Best of luck for whichever side you are on. On the contrary, you might be here because your fantasy season was brutal and you need to see fresh faces in your lineups and make some money to pay off your league dues (pretty much talking about myself right there). In that case, I will do my part in guiding you in the right direction with some values for DFS this week. All salaries used in this article can be found on DraftKings Daily Fantasy.

At this point in the season, it is clear where most teams stand. All teams have something to play for, whether it is playoff seeding, keeping their season alive, or trying to play well enough for pride but ultimately losing to get a high draft pick. Regardless of which side any team falls towards, there’s still a reason for them to go out on Sunday and perform. With that in mind, let’s dive right into the best plays and values for Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Although he is battling a turf toe in just, should Philip Rivers be included in DFS lineups?
Aaron Rodgers- $7,500

He doesn’t come cheap, but if it wasn’t for that guy in Kansas City, Rodgers would be the undisputed MVP this season. Coming off of a week where he became the fastest quarterback to reach 400 passing touchdowns, Rodgers is ready to go out there and ball while the Packers aim for that number one seed in the NFC. Lucky for him, he gets to head to the dome in Detroit where he made his career defining play.

When Rodgers faced the Lions in Week 2, the number were solid but not spectacular. He only threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. However, remember that this was the game where Davante Adams got hurt. With Adams now healthy and performing better than he ever has, look for Rodgers to take advantage of the Lions poor secondary.

Philip Rivers- $5,900

I know, he might be arguably the most boring play here. However, this matchup against the Raiders is too good to pass up. For a quarterback that you don’t have to pay top dollar for, Rivers is a great value. Last week, he remembered that T.Y. Hilton still plays for the Colts and is actually pretty awesome at football. He also has rookie Jonathan Taylor coming off his best game as a pro, with 135 total yards and a touchdown.

Like I said, there is nothing to be excited about with this play. All that we know is that Rivers has a ton of weapons to utilize.He also goes against defense that is not great to begin with, likely missing their most dynamic safety in Jonathan Abrams, and just allowed Sam Darnold to score three touchdowns against them last week. I think you can go into Sunday feeling pretty safe with Rivers plugged in at quarterback.

Matt Ryan- $5,700

“Matty Ice” benefits from Rivers being in the league still. Once Rivers retires, Ryan will slide right in and take the crown of the most boring quarterback to watch. As boring as he may be, he still gets to throw the ball to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Luckily, nothing about those guys are boring.

Ryan and the Falcons get to travel to Los Angeles and take on the Chargers, who have allowed at least 27 points to every opponent since Week 4. Considering the fourth quarter heartbreaks that both teams have endured this season, I assume we will see some weird stuff out of this game on Sunday. Compile that with the Falcons’ struggling rushing attack and hopefully another full game from Julio, look for the former MVP to put some points on the board.

Running Backs

Can Kenyan Drake continue to be the work horse he has been over the past three weeks?
Austin Ekeler- $7,000

In his first game since suffering a brutal hamstring injury in Week 4, the Chargers eased Ekeler back into action with ONLY 23 touches. While he only had 12 touches in last weeks blowout against the Patriots, volume is clearly something guaranteed for Ekeler.

In a game against the Falcons that should be high scoring, expect Ekeler to be involved early and often. With rookie quarterback Justin Herbert coming off his worst performance of the year, look for the Rookie of the Year frontrunner to come out firing. In doing so, Ekeler should be active in the passing game, making him worth the high price you have to pay for him.

David Montgomery- $6,500

It feels like we have been waiting for this stretch of games out of Montgomery since the beginning of last season. For a player that has received as much volume as Montgomery has, it has been frustrating to see him struggle with inconsistency in this Bears offense. However, since returning from his concussion and the bye week, Montgomery has put together back to back 100-plus yard performances.

The Texans have allowed an average of 151 rushing yard per game. Compile those numbers with Montgomery’s increased usage, expect the Bears lead back to be in store for a big game.

Kenyan Drake- $5,500

The hype surrounding Drake was at its highest at the beginning of this season following his amazing stretch at the end of last season. After coming over from the Dolphins, it appeared the Cardinals had found the perfect running back to compliment Kyler Murray. However, between battling injuries and being involved in a timeshare with Chase Edmonds, Drake hasn’t looked like a running back playing on the transition tag this season.

However, there is reason for optimism for Drake this week. Over the past three weeks, Drake is out-touching Edmonds 52-24. Drake also has had four touchdowns over that span. If Drake maintains this volume against a weak Giants run defense, expect him to produce strong numbers in what is a must win game for the Cardinals playoff hopes.

Wide Receivers

Rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been very productive this season despite inconsistent quarterback play. Look for him to continue to be a difference maker for this 49ers team.
Corey Davis- $5,700

The Titans are coming off of a tough loss in Week 13 but still find themselves atop of the AFC South. With only four games to go and the Colts breathing down their necks, every game matters for Mike Vrabel and his boys. Playing from behind last week, Corey Davis was the main beneficiary.

Coming off of a career high 11 receptions and 184 yards, Davis and Ryan Tannehill have clearly established a strong chemistry in the Titans passing attack. Now, with a matchup against a depleted Jaguars secondary, Davis will be busy yet again as the Titans need to come out firing in a bounce back performance.

Brandon Aiyuk- $5,400

When the 49ers selected Brandon Aiyuk in the first round, it was a move that raised a lot of eyebrows. They had their choice of taking Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. Instead, this was the guy that Kyle Shanahan wanted and it has been a perfect fit when Aiyuk is healthy. He has fought injuries and COVID this season, but in his last four games active, Aiyuk has 40 targets and three touchdowns.

Aiyuk has been able to put up great numbers despite Nick Mullens being under center. He is preparing to face a pass defense in the Washington Football Team that has performed very well this season. With both teams still alive in the playoff race, this should be expected to be a surprisingly competitive game. As such, Aiyuk should continue to see a high volume of targets.

Michael Gallup- $3,800

Oh, Michael Gallup. We all had such high hopes for you this season. When Dak Prescott was healthy, Gallup was viewed as a weekly fantasy starter. Since then, Gallup has become a forgotten man in what has become a very boring Cowboys offense. There has been signs of life from Gallup though as Andy Dalton has looked his way 19 times over the past two games.

Against this Bengals secondary, it serves as a great opportunity for Gallup to remind everyone that when right, he is a very productive receiver. For the price that you are getting him for and the Cowboys clinging on to the slim hope that they still have a chance in the NFC East, expect them to come out on Sunday playing to win.

Tight Ends

The talent is there. Can the production be there as weak for Evan Engram in Week 14?
Evan Engram- $4,300

Engram is such a frustrating player. He has so much talent and can truly be a top tier tight end in this league. However, he switches off between being hurt or underperforming. There are reasons to be optimistic about Engram this week.

In the two weeks since the bye, Engram has seen 17 targets. This has been done with two different quarterbacks under center, which gives reason to expect his high volume to continue. Combine that with the struggling Cardinals defense that he is facing, this can hopefully serve as a big week for Engram.

Robert Tonyan- $4,200

Any time you have Aaron Rodgers throwing you the ball, you hold value in any and every format. Tonyan has stepped up for the Packers in a huge way. Serving as another target for Rodgers all over the field, Tonyan gets a lot of action when defenses are too scared to get beat by Davante Adams.

Like I mentioned with Rodgers, the Packers are still playing meaningful games in their fight for the top seed in the NFC. With at least five targets and a touchdown in three straight games, Tonyan is one of the most appealing tight end options to plug into your lineups in Week 14.

Tyler Eifert- $3,100

If you’re looking for a really cheap option who should see some volume, Effect should be on your radar. In the two weeks with Mike Glennon taking snaps for the Jaguars, Eifert has seen 10 targets and has caught a touchdown. In a matchup against the Titans, the Jaguars stand to be down early and throwing the ball often, leaving plenty of opportunity for Eifert to contribute.

While any of these three guys can contribute and have value for their price, let’s face it. Budget elsewhere and make your life easy with Travis Kelce at your tight end position. He’s just so much better than the other options so make the obvious choice.

Defense/Special Teams

Malcolm Jenkins didn’t feel valued by the Eagles when they opted not to bring him back. He now gets a chance to show them what they’re missing in Week 14.
New Orleans Saints- $3,800

We can keep this one short and sweet. Elite defense against a rookie making his first career start. Sprinkle in the fact that we have a Malcolm Jenkins revenge game, keep it simple and fire up the Saints defense.

Seattle Seahawks- $3,000

Any team that plays the Jets has to be on your DFS radar. Especially when the Jets best player last season in Jamal Adams is going to be all over the field for the Seahawks in order to torment his former team. While Sam Darnold did have three total touchdowns last week, there is not much to be excited about with this Jets offense. The Seahawks will certainly force some turnovers as the Jets travel to the Pacific Northwest.

Dallas Cowboys- $2,400

Let’s put this nicely. The Cowboys defense is not good. However, with no Joe Burrow, no Joe Mixon, and the ghost of A.J. Green running around, it is hard to expect positive results with Brandon Allen under center. If you spend heavy elsewhere and need a cheap option, you can do much worse than the Cowboys this week.

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