Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Do You Have a Win-Now Team?

Fantasy managers in dynasty circles often talk about the importance of knowing whether you are in win-later or win-now mode. The biggest mistake one can make in dynasty leagues is thinking you’re a win-now team when you’re not. People with middling teams who think they can win now often end up giving up draft picks and young pieces for older veterans. Then, they get stuck with no wins and a bad old team that nobody wants. It’s very tough to rebuild from there. Hopefully, this article helps answer the question, do you have a win-now team?

If you want a real-life example, the Rams are the poster child of win-now teams at the moment. They mortgaged their future to get a stacked team and it got them to the Superbowl. You might want to do similarly, but make sure your team is ready to go for it.

I’ll tackle this from a somewhat average league, meaning 12-team PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1Superflex, 1K, 1DST (though the latter two don’t really matter).

Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers carries New York Jets during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Is Your Team Stacked?

I’m going to give you a guide as to what I think you should have on your roster before considering going all-in on a championship. This is just my opinion and every league is different so take this with a grain of salt. Also, the rankings being used for this section are redraft rankings, not dynasty rankings. Trevor Lawrence may have more dynasty value than Aaron Rodgers according to many fantasy players, but I’d much rather have Rodgers for a win-now team.

  • Quarterback
    • 2 top-12 QBs (and their backups)
    • 1 top-16 QB
  • Running Back
    • 1 top-12 RB (and their handcuff(s) if possible)
    • 1 top-24 RB (and their handcuff(s) if possible)
    • 2 top-36 RBs
  • Wide Receiver
    • 2 top-24 WRs
    • 3 top-48 WRs
  • Tight End
    • 1 top-6 TE
    • 1 top-12 TE

I’m not guaranteeing a win with a team like this. But if your team is significantly worse than this, I’d recommend against going all-in to win now. If your team is barely meeting these requirements, I wouldn’t be very confident giving up my future to try to win now. If you want to go all-in, you should be clearing these minimum recommendations by a significant margin in quite a few categories. Too many people look at their starting lineup and think they have a win-now team. But in my opinion, it’s too risky to go all-in without bench depth. Injuries are very prevalent in the NFL.

Another way to look at your team is to see how well you can withstand injuries. If your best QB, RB, and WR were injured, would you still have a chance? If the answer is no, I wouldn’t risk your future for this year.

Also, remember that draft picks can fill some of these gaps, whether it’s by drafting them in an upcoming draft or by trading them. Don’t sell cheap though.

Another note is that your team should be competitive for two to three years because you can have the best team and still lose in your first playoff game because the game is so unpredictable. If you’re heavily counting on players like Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce, or Jalen Hurts, who might not even start in two years, it can be very risky to go all-in now.

What Are Win-Now Moves?

So if you think you are in a win-now team, you can try to make sure your team can dominate the competition. This can involve trading away future picks and young prospects like Zach Wilson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rashod Bateman, or Pat Freiermuth. In exchange, you can acquire proven producers like Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, or Travis Kelce (I’m not saying you can get these trades done straight up, these are just examples of pieces you may want to trade away or trade for).

Wrap-Up

With all this being said, you may not need to mortgage your future for a win-now team. With patience, you can build a team with stud young players. It’s just more difficult to do so. But if you can pull it off, you could dominate the league for years. I have one team in a 12-team Superflex league with Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, TJ Hockenson, three firsts this year, and two firsts next year. A win-now and win-later team can be achieved with good moves, but it’s rare and not easy to get to.

I hope this article helps you to see: do you have a win-now team? If you don’t, that’s fine. Being in a rebuild can be fun. It does require patience and being very active in trades.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me on Twitter.