Though real-life talent and performance often relate to fantasy numbers, this isn’t always true. This is most clearly seen at the quarterback position. One example is that quarterbacks who throw recklessly like Jameis Winston. He and the more recent version of Joe Flacco can get many fantasy points through big TDs and yardage numbers. Another example is that rushing QBs, whether good or bad, get more points. This is because rushing yards and TDs are worth more than passing yards and TDs in most leagues. So does talent matter for QBs?

Dynasty

This is a critical consideration in dynasty Superflex leagues. In 1QB leagues, having a positional advantage is more important. On the other hand, longevity doesn’t matter as much because they’re cheaper and easier to replace. But in Superflex leagues, QBs are scarce. In a 12-team league, 24 QBs can be started. There are only a maximum of 32 QBs that can start in any given week. Because of the low supply, QBs are difficult to get and are expensive. So if you spend on a QB who only lasts for a year or two, that’s a lot of value that is instantly lost when they become a backup.

Redraft

In most redraft leagues, this doesn’t matter much. The only thing that matters is a player’s weekly fantasy floor and ceiling. They only need to start for that year. And because QBs are often later-round draft picks anyway in 1QB leagues, they can be replaced. Does talent matter for QBs here? Not so much.

Practical Examples

Justin Fields hasn’t proven he’s an above-average QB. Many casual fantasy managers who don’t really watch football think he’s great because of his fantasy numbers. But Fields has been subpar for 3 years. I can’t think of any QB who has been subpar for 3 years, then suddenly became a franchise QB. Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill are examples of QBs who became decent after a rough start. But neither of them have that much value or job security either. However, Justin Fields is great for fantasy because he runs so much. For that reason, I’d say he’s great for redraft leagues or 1QB dynasty leagues. I was telling everyone it was ridiculous that he was a first-round dynasty Superflex startup pick last year after being so horrible for 2 years straight. He improved slightly this past season, but he still dropped to QB18. I think that’s still slightly too high, but it’s reasonable considering his upside while starting. However, I still see people taking him in the second round of startup drafts, which is way too early for someone who could be worth less than Daniel Jones a year from now.

On the other hand, people have been downplaying guys like Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott. They have job security and they are above average NFL QBs. The fact that they have shown they’re good for fantasy is a plus as well. They should be highly valued but people often underestimate them because of silly anti-short QB and anti-Cowboys narratives.

Wrap-Up

So, does talent matter for QBs? Yes in dynasty Superflex formats. Not so much in others (unless it’s something odd like a 32 team 1QB dynasty league). In dynasty Superflex leagues, talent should matter a lot. It leads to job security, which means longevity. It’s not just about putting up fantasy numbers, because we’ve seen guys like Tim Tebow who are great for fantasy not end up lasting long in the NFL.

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