I’ve done a few 2022 rookie drafts and I’ve seen a few others as well. There was a lot of hype on a few QBs pre-draft but many were surprised by how late they fell. What I’ve noticed is that that hype is still strong. Many still believe in those QBs despite the fact the NFL clearly showed they don’t. Don’t overvalue 2022 QBs.

There are three 3rd round QBs that are often going early in rookie drafts. Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, and Matt Corral are often going in the top 20 picks. However, they were drafted in spots that show they are likely career backups. If they fall to the end of the 2nd or later, I can understand taking a shot on them. However, I have seen many mangers reach on Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder. Many express the expectation they will be given the chance to be solid starters. I would much rather spend that draft capital on players who are probably starters at other positions.

History

There was 1 QB taken in the 1st round. Besides Kenny Pickett, no one else was taken in the first two rounds. To me, here are the other QBs of note that were not drafted within the first two rounds over the past 10 drafts, including this past one: Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph, C.J. Beathard, Nathan Peterman, Taysom Hill, Jacoby Brissett, Dak Prescott, Taylor Heinicke. This list excludes many other names that are even more fantasy irrelevant. Dak Prescott is the only person on this list I would have been happy spending a 1st round or early 2nd round pick on.

The Logic

I kind of get the thinking. In Superflex leagues, starting QBs are gold. However, let’s look at Davis Mills. He is likely the starter going forward for the Houston Texans. Despite that, not many would give up a 1st round pick for him. That being said, I think it’s unlikely any of these 3rd round QBs even turn out to be as good as Davis Mills.

Wrap-Up

Of course, one of these QBs could hit. But I’m not wasting a pick and roster spot on such low odds. Rookie hype is real. Don’t get caught up in it.

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