Thursday, December 26, 2024

Fantasy Football

Don’t Reach On Tight End

Travis Kelce and George Kittle are widely regarded as the top two Tight Ends in fantasy football, and for good reason. But they are not easy to acquire in drafts, and acquiring them means using a very early pick on your Tight End. Considering the cost of acquiring either of them, I think any of the following guys make more sense later in the draft.

Mike Gesicki

I am higher on Gesicki than every single person in the industry. The 6′ 6″ 250 lb. 4.54 speed 41.5″ vertical super athlete sure looks the part. I have him as my TE3, and as such, my exposure to him is off the charts. Even with my TE3 rank, Belly Up TE rankings have him as TE10. Fantasy data has him as TE16, ADP 148.9. Gesicki finished 2019 with 51 catches for 570 yards and 5 TDs. His numbers over the last 5 weeks of 2020? 20 catches, 248 yards, 4 TDs. He had one heck of a finish.

He increased his numbers across the board from 2018, and I expect a similar trend heading into 2020. In year three, I expect more consistency from Magic Mike. I view him as a surefire lock to outproduce his 2019 stats when he finished as the PPR TE11 according to Fantasy Pros. I don’t care who is quarterbacking the Dolphins in 2020. Getting him as the 16th tight end is exactly how you win leagues.

Jace Sternberger

The Green Bay Packers have Davante Adams, an elite WR. And they have… other guys at WR too. Suffice it to say, they aren’t exactly loaded at WR. Which brings me to second-year tight end Jace Sternberger. Despite only seeing 1 target in 2019 and recording zero counting stats, Sternberger heads into 2020 as the starting TE for the Packers. This guy can play, as evidenced by his lone season at Texas A&M in 2018. He recorded 48 catches for a whopping 837 yards and 10 TDs. That’s a 17.3 YPC average.

Aaron Rodgers is going to need more guys to throw to. The artist formerly known as Jimmy Graham scored 3 TDs along with 447 yards last year. That should be considered the floor for Jace. He has proven to be effective in the past, and another year in the pros should do wonders for Jace. He is currently going off the board as the 26th tight end, with an ADP of 306. Grab him late, and you should have no issues solidifying the rest of your roster before addressing TE. He offers incredible upside at his current price.

Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith enters 2020 in rather unfamiliar territory. For the first time in his career, he is the starting TE. Smith has shown flashes in his young career, demonstrating the speed to be a mismatch and the athletic ability to be a playmaker for a Titans offense that could be quite formidable in 2020. At an ADP of 157.1, the 17th tight end, Jonnu Smith could easily wind up in the top 10. He will get the reps this year, and based on the flashes I have seen so far in his career, he is capable of producing.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old tight end averaged 12.5 yards per catch in 2019. He also added 4 rushes for 78 yards, demonstrating some of the big play ability he has. 439 yards and 3 TDs in 2019 will be a baseline for him as he absorbs the TE1 volume on a full season, and a breakout is likely. Consider that defenses must plan on stopping Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown is a threat to score every play, so Smith should see ample room to operate. Sign me up.

Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox struggled with inconsistency in his rookie season with the Bills. Despite this, he managed to average 13.9 yards per catch in 2019. 28 catches on 50 targets, for 388 yards and 2 TDs doesn’t exactly scream superstar. However, he flashed a few times in 2019, and the big-bodied TE should benefit from the addition of Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen showed improvement in almost every facet of his game in year two, and if the improvements continue, Buffalo could have a formidable offense in 2020.

Knox will be the primary tight end, and I expect his 61% snap share to increase in his second year. If Allen’s accuracy continues trending up, and Knox can work on consistently performing, we could be looking at a year two breakout for the very athletic Knox. As the 27th tight end off the board with an ADP of 310, Knox offers the type of upside I covet with my late-round picks.

Gerald Everett

Apologies to all the Tyler Higbee fans reading this, but I am avoiding him like the plague at his ADP. The best TE the Rams have is 4th-year man Gerald Everett. In 13 games last year, he recorded 37 catches for 408 yards and 2 TDs. Let’s do a career comp. Player A career numbers: 129 catches, 1406 yards, 7 TDs on 10.6 YPC. Player B career numbers: 86 catches, 972 yards, 7 TDS, 11.3 YPC. Higbee is Player A, Everett is player B. I prefer B. Rumors are the Rams will be using 12 personnel more in 2020, which means both guys should see a lot of time on the field.

At 6’3, 240, Everett runs a 4.62 and has shown he is the big play threat between the two tight end options. Consider also that Everett has 0 career drops, to Higbee’s 3. Both those numbers are great, but Everett’s athleticism vaults him above Higbee for me, and at his ADP of 293, the 23rd TE off the board has a solid chance of seriously outproducing his draft slot.

Any of these tight ends provide high upside in 2020, and are available much later in your drafts. The depth at the tight end position in 2020 is pretty remarkable. Guys like Austin Hooper, Jack Doyle, Dallas Goedert, Kyle Rudolph, and Chris Herndon all deserve mention, along with others. So don’t fret about getting those two elite guys. There is plenty of tight end love to go around!

Enjoy this article? Thanks for reading. Tight ends are evolving in the NFL, and getting the right ones are key. If you want more of my content, follow me @realryanhicks. Also follow Belly Up Fantasy on twitter, and check out our website for all your fantasy needs.