Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Double Down On Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or CEH for short, was the talk of the fantasy football community last year. CEH was RB8 going into the 2020 season. This had people buzzing about his potential, and many drafted him in the first round of start-up drafts. CEH finished as RB22 and has left a lot of supporters with bad tastes in their mouths. This article is going to be a deep dive into why you should hold onto, draft, or trade for Edwards-Helaire.

Chiefs O-Line is Better

Coming off of the Super Bowl loss, the Chiefs needed to upgrade the line and get the run game more involved. The Chiefs released Pro Bowl tackle, Eric Fisher, and All-Pro, Mitchell Schwartz. This was a red flag for chiefs fans until free agency opened. The Chiefs signed Joe Thuney, an excellent run-blocking guard, who posted the second-lowest run-blown block rate among guards. The Chiefs also added center Austin Blythe, who had a 73.2 run-blocking grade per Pro Football Focus in 2020. Maybe the strongest piece added was Orlando Brown Jr., whose run-blocking grade was 72.8 with the Ravens, the team that ran the ball the most last year (555 carries). The Chiefs have added 3x Pro Bowl guard, Kyle Long, as well as center Creed Humphrey through the draft. The Chiefs have solidified their offensive line and have a backup line that could rival most teams’ first-string.

Last year, the Chiefs ranked 31st in run block win rate (67%). This makes CEH’s accolades in his rookie year rather impressive. Edwards-Helaire posted 803 yards (yds), and 4 TDs on 181 carries (car) in 2020. One stat that stands out to me is 4.4 yds/car last year, an impressive number considering the offensive line was frequently injured and rarely together on the field. Edwards-Helaire’s patience and burst through the hole is going to mix well with his new offensive linemates. Something CEH does incredibly well is he plays through contact, breaking 15 tackles last year. The Chiefs adding offensive linemen who can run block is going to be a huge plus for CEH’s fantasy value. Last year Edwards-Helaire fared well for a rookie running back, but this year his re-vamped O-line is going to push him to the next level.

Pass Catching

Clyde Edwards-Helaire runs for 138 yards, first NFL TD in Chiefs' 34-20  victory over Texans | Sports | theadvocate.com
Charlie Riedel-AP

The Chiefs rely heavily on the passing attack with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and an assortment of young speedsters. Ranking as the #1 overall offense shows you how deadly this passing attack is in Kansas City. Having CEH step up this year and shoulder more of the load should be a priority for the Chiefs. This would give Patrick Mahomes the ability to be patient and not force throws downfield. Making CEH a 60-80 target running back would take this offense to new heights.

Last year Clyde Edwards-Helaire was brought in to give Patrick Mahomes a lethal check-down option. He closed out his LSU senior season with 55 recs, 453 yds, and a TD and averaged 8.2 yds/rec. While CEH wasn’t Christian McCaffrey in 2020, he didn’t disappoint either. He put up 36 receptions, 297 yds, and a TD on 54 targets with an exceptional 8.25 yds/rec. He has established himself as a check-down threat who can take it upfield and break tackles along the way. His yards after the catch (YAC) average last year was 8.2, telling us that every yard he got was earned. If CEH takes on more of the workload this year, he could end up becoming a top 10 running back.

Depth Chart

KC Chiefs: Running back depth chart after 2020 NFL Draft
Leigh Oleszczak-Fan Sided

Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon highlight the depth chart behind Edwards-Helaire. Williams is a solid backup who does a little bit of everything and is a change of pace back for the Chiefs. As for his chances of digging into CEH’s carries, it’s more likely that he claims half of Le’Veon Bell’s 63 carries from last year. Williams is a solid handcuff for CEH owners, but don’t look for him to take much of Edwards-Helaire’s workload.

McKinnon is a former starting running back who put up good numbers last year with the 49ers. In 2020,  McKinnon returned from recurring ACL injuries that had previously kept him out since 2017. McKinnon flashed some of the talent that had made him a number one running back for the Vikings. He showed off his ability to cut back and change direction while still having explosive speed. McKinnon showed he can still shoulder the load for an entire game, but that doesn’t mean he should or will. I see him as someone to come in and give CEH a break on passing downs. He won’t take away anything from CEH fantasy-wise and should serve to keep CEH’s legs fresh.

Conclusion

Coming into 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the hype train of the fantasy football world. When he didn’t produce to that level, we saw fantasy owners sour on him. I, on the other hand, am getting on the CEH sophomore year hype train. CEH has a breakout season written all over him and should be someone who is sought after. My prediction for CEH is 210 cars, 950-1100 yds, and 6 TDs. His receiving prediction is 60 targets, 45 recs, 300-400 yds, and 2-3 TDs.

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