Over the weekend, in the midst of a 27-13 win over the San Francisco 49ers, Fantasy Football stud and New Orleans Saints starting quarterback Drew Brees was injured early on a hit in the backfield. Brees finished the drive and threw a touchdown pass to running back Alvin Kamara, but ended up missing the rest of the game due to pain from the collision. Backup quarterback Taysom Hill took a few snaps, but the bulk of the workload went to recently acquired Jameis Winston. Hill did not attempt a pass and Winston, a 2015 Pro Bowler, was six for ten with 63 yards through the air. Hill was on the field for 37% of the offensive snaps, and Winston was on the field for 58%. While Hill has more experience in the offense, Winston appeared the clear cut backup. 

While Saints fans and Drew Brees fantasy owners hoped for surprisingly good news… there was none to come:

More from @WerderEdESPN: Drew Brees is suffering from three fractured ribs on his left side and two on the right, possibly more. Doctors have cautioned Brees to be especially careful with the damage to his lung. https://t.co/6Ps1pPOfek

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 16, 2020

Fractured ribs can take six to eight weeks to heal, if not more. Thus -while he may be back for a NFC playoff run with the Saints- fantasy owners are left wondering what to do. Moreover- Should they make the same move New Orleans is making and go to Jameis Winston? 

This is a common option. In most leagues, the majority of starting quarterbacks are picked up. Further, with the return of Michael Thomas and the versatility of Alvin Kamara, there is real boom possibility with a Winston start. With the turnover prone “W” eater, there’s also a real bust possibility. 

So, if you had Drew Brees, or a buddy you want to trade with did, should you replace them with Jameis Winston? 

YES

The three highest snap percentages for offensive skill positions in New Orleans on Sunday were Thomas (78%), Kamara (66%), and Emmanuel Sanders (58%). Playing with those three, any quarterback has a chance. And a quarterback that threw for 5,100 yards as a starter last season? That, with a week of first team reps, is a recipe for a ton of success. 

Sure, Winston had a mediocre second half, but history tells us he has the arm and the weapons to score a lot of points. New Orleans plays Atlanta twice, Denver, Philadelphia, and Carolina. That’s five times against defenses that have allowed over 27+ points in more than half of their games this season. That SCREAMS for potential breakout games. 

Head Coach Sean Payton is an offensive genius. The skill position core is fast. The Saints are playing for a shot at homefield throughout the playoffs and a first round bye, and have every reason to continue to push the envelope this season. 

And Winston can carry the workload. He led the league in pass attempts and passing yards a year ago, he’s just 26 years-old, and he has every personal incentive to show the rest of the NFL he can still do it. They’re motivated, he’s motivated… and he has newfound vision, literally. 

In any competitive fantasy league, the likelihood that you can find a better option than Winston is minimal. In traditional ESPN and Yahoo scoring formats, Drew Brees was a top ten quarterback heading into Week 10. While Winston has big shoes to fill, it’s unlikely that anyone else on waivers could realistically do it better. 

NO

Listen, the Saints can go with Jameis all they want. But your fantasy team? Oof… 

When Jameis came in, the halftime speech was very clearly: hand the damn ball off. Jameis did not complete any pass that qualifies as middle range depth, much less deep. One has to imagine that will be easily coached against, even by the Falcons, Broncos, Eagles, and Panthers… right? 

Further, Jameis’ knock is turnovers, and those are negative fantasy points. He threw 33 picks last season in an offense he knew. What is he going to do in a new one? With a week of first team reps? 

The creativity of Coach Payton could simply playing to Jameis strengths… but it also may mean covering him up completely. Taysom Hill still took the reins for an entire series while it was the Jameis Winston show, and that could only increase as a way to grind the clock as the coming games go on. While the Brees injury may be good news for Alvin Kamara owners, does that mean it’s time for the Winston W eating train? 

Consensus: 

Read your league. Odds are, there aren’t many plays to be made here without trading key pieces elsewhere on your roster away. I’d recommend taking the hit at the QB position and riding the Winston wave and not giving away starpower at your other spots. Winston has several quarterback favorable matchups in the coming weeks, and it ought to at least be good enough to keep your team afloat while your other positions round out the roster. 

The defenses they play are bad. The guys he plays with are good. We’ve seen mediocre quarterbacks put up big fantasy numbers, even accounting for losing a couple of points for interceptions. Play Jameis if other options require swapping out your skill guys, he’ll be able to get the job done. 

Follow me on Twitter @painsworth512 for more, and give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts!