Friday, November 08, 2024

Fantasy Football

Dynasty Rookie QB Post-Draft Analysis

Well, the draft wasn’t as bad we all expected. It went pretty smoothly for the most part. Aside from Goodell not knowing how to pronounce anyone’s name, which seems like a norm for the last couple of years. It is time for me to get to work now with my post-draft dynasty rookie analysis. With every new dynasty league opening I see, most are typically SuperFlex. This draft class of rookie QB has some great options for your Superflex rookie drafts. I give you a dynasty breakdown of the top QB selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. I address both SuperFlex and standard league value. This list is not a ranking but more of a breakdown of the 2020 NFL Rookie QB class.

Check out my Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Analysis on other positions here : QBRB Part One, RB Part Two

Joe Burrow

Coming off a National Championship at LSU, Joe Burrow was the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow will be welcomed by TylerBoyd who has shown that he could make the transition much smoother for the Heisman winner. Joe Mixon will also play a huge role on the ground for Burrow. There has been rumors that Mixon won’t play unless given a contract extension. 

Green has been riddled with injuries over the past three years but can produce fantasy points if healthy. The Bengals also brought in Clemson WR Tee Higgins. Higgins will be a big athletic target for Burrow and I expect them to find an instant connection. It helps when teams bring in rookie WR alongside their rookie QB as they will grow together in rookie camp and throughout the preseason. Joe Burrow should be the 1.01 off the board in SuperFlex rookie drafts and will fall into the late 1st to 2nd round in standard rookie drafts.

Tua Tagovailoa

Tagovailoa will be welcomed into Miami by DeVante Parker and emerging TE Mike Gesicki. Tua should be a Day 1 starter but may sit a year under Ryan Fitzpatrick. It appears that Tagovailoa is getting back to his normal self and free of injury. The Dolphins used their 7th round pick on Navy WR Malcolm Perry. I thought they would have used some of their draft capital to grab one of the star WR in this class. They must be hopeful for Parker and 2nd year WR Preston Williams to carry the load.

It is unclear to full project his 2020 season. Fitzpatrick will most likely start the season as the man, but I feel Tagovailoa can be a starter by Week 5. Flores won’t look to rush Tagovailoa into the starting lineup but after a few bad games from Fitzpatrick, Tua will be asked to take over. Tua should be a Top 4 pick, depending on the hype of CEH and Taylor. I just grabbed Tua at 1.04 yesterday and I was very happy. Tua will go in anywhere in the 2nd round in standard rookie drafts. Tua won’t start Week 1, but I would expect him out there by Week 16.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is joining one of the better offensive situations for a QB-needy team. Herbert will be welcomed in by elite pass-catching back Austin Ekeler, reception monster Keenan Allen, and jump-ball receiver Mike Williams. Herbert will be the Day 1 starter as I don’t believe Tyrod Taylor will be a threat to Herbert. The Chargers also went out and grabbed a few more pass catchers by drafting Joe Reed in the 5th and K.J. Hill in the 7th round. They also added another back in Joshua Kelley as they look for someone to fulfill the hole that Melvin Gordon left.

Herbert is entering one of the better situations of the rookie QB. He has targets around him that have shown that they are capable of making the QB’s job a lot easier. If Rivers was able to throw the ball farther than 3 yards, the Chargers would not have been in the position to grab Herbert. There is some concern about Herbert’s accuracy but it doesn’t worry me as of now. In Dynasty SuperFlex rookie drafts Herbert will be a Top 8 pick. There are many that doubt how good Herbert is so he may fall even farther. In standard rookie drafts, Herbert will go in the late 2nd to anywhere in the 3rd round.

Jordan Love

Many have questioned the Packers’ decision to move up and grab Jordan Love in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jordan Love has the pure arm talent that made him a 1st round target. The Packers didn’t want to let that slip through their fingers. I like the pick a lot for them. However, I don’t think they needed to trade up as he would have been there when they were on the clock. I look at it this way. Brady just left the New England Patriots this offseason without much forewarning. What would it take to keep Rodgers to stay in Green Bay for the rest of his career? Let us say that Rodgers wants to go play for division rival Chicago because LaFleur pisses him off one too many times. Well, now they have their answer and his name is Jordan Love.

Love will be joining a similar situation much like Rodgers was for Farve. I see it as a challenge for Rodgers now that your immediate backup is pushing you out the door. They want to complain that Rodgers doesn’t get any offensive help. However, maybe it is time for Rodgers to step up and be the ultimate difference-maker. I like what Rodgers has done in his career but he seems like he has fallen more into the game manager role the last few seasons. Jordan Love is a great stash of a rookie QB.

He most likely won’t get any playing time this year unless Rodgers goes down. Love is the future of the Green Bay Packers. In SuperFlex rookie drafts, Love will go around the 2.02 to 2.07 and I would always grab him there. In a standard rookie draft, Love will fall to the last pick in the 2nd round and could go anywhere in between the 3rd round. Love is why we have such things as taxi spots. Throw Love on there and wait it out as he learns how to be one of the best gunslingers in the NFL under Rodgers.

Jalen Hurts

As Doug Pederson was sitting there on Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft, he realized that maybe the Packers are on to something. Wentz is susceptible to injury, and however, we did see him play all 16 games in 2019, Pederson needed a playmaker for a backup. I love Jalen Hurts. Truthfully, I think he can be something special in this league given his playmaking abilities with his league. He is not Lamar Jackson by any means. Hurts is capable of moving an offense and doing it very well. Wentz is not going anywhere as he remains under contract until 2024.

There is a strong possibility that Wentz remains healthy and Hurts isn’t ever used much, but I see the opposite. Pederson will look to use Hurts in many different ways in their offense. Possibly getting Wentz off the field for a bit here and there will reduce his chance of injury. I mean it will for sure, the less playing time, the smaller chance of getting injured unless he stubs his finger while getting a drink of water. I mean you never know, it is Carson Wentz.

Hurts will go in the late 2nd to even the 4th round in SuperFlex rookie drafts. If he is there in the 3rd, I would recommend grabbing him. In standard rookie drafts, he will go in the 4th round and I am pretty confident in that. This class is too full of positional talent for Hurts to be selected before the 4th in standard drafts. Hurts is one of the more interesting rookie QB in this class to project his future role.

Jacob Eason

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 14: Jacob Eason #10 of the Washington Huskies throws the ball in the first quarter against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during their game at Husky Stadium on September 14, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Jacob Eason landed in one of the better spots of all the rookie QB. I don’t think he has much of a role this season but Rivers is only on a 1-year deal. I don’t think the Colts will bring back Rivers after the 2020 season after they see his true colors. I’m not very high on Rivers being an NFL capable QB anymore after watching him throw interception after interception in the latter half of 2019. The Colts will rely on the running game in 2020 with new stud RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor behind that line is amazing but I will save that for another article.

With Rivers out of town after 2020, Eason should be able to compete for the starting role. It will be uncertain if T.Y. Hilton will still be playing football then. However, the Colts drafted promising WR Parris Campbell in 2019. They also added Michael Pittman Jr. and Dezmon Patmon in the 2020 draft. Pittman and Campbell will develop into a nice receiving core by the time it is Eason’s job. Eason will spend this year learning under Rivers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is thrown into game action in 2020. Eason is a 4th round pick in SuperFlex rookie drafts. Eason will go around the 4th-5th in standard drafts and may go undrafted. There is no reason why Eason should not be owned. Please check your waiver wires post rookie draft and stag him up.

James Morgan

Nov 23, 2019; Miami, FL, USA; FIU Golden Panthers quarterback James Morgan (12) throws against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets drafted James Morgan with the 125th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft with clear intentions that he will be the backup behind Sam Darnold. I think it is quite bold to tell your 4th round pick that he will be the backup immediately. I don’t think Darnold has done anything yet to prove that he should ultimately be the Jets’ starting QB on Day 1. Morgan is a few months older than Darnold. This may make him a little more experienced than Darnold despite never playing a single snap in the NFL.

Morgan is competitive and will approach the Jets with this mindset, “It’s up to them to decide. All I am going to focus on is what I can control and that’s giving my full effort to helping the team win. However it shakes out, I’m just here to help this organization win games” (NY POST). Morgan will go undrafted in both SuperFlex and standard rookie drafts. Monitor his situation during camp as he may compete for the starting job. 

Jake Fromm

Jan 1, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm (11) celebrates after a touchdown pass against the Baylor Bears during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

If you watched the 2020 NFL Draft, you may have noticed that Fromm’s name was on the best player available board for many picks. I was surprised to see Fromm go this late. Yes, Fromm has one of the most accurate arms in the country. However, many will pass on him simply because of his lack of passing stats. Georgia hasn’t had a prolific offense for as long as I can remember. They are known for their rushing attack and playing defense. I was surprised that maybe a team with an underlying need at QB like Chicago and Jacksonville didn’t attempt to grab him.

Fromm will back up Josh Allen in Buffalo, and these two QB’s are very opposite. Where Allen struggles with accuracy, Fromm is prided for it. Where Fromm struggles with his mobility, that is where Allen excels. I don’t think Fromm will be a competitor to Allen for the starting job but will fit in right in as his backup. If Allen goes down with injury because of his style of play, Fromm should be able to step in and manage that offense. Fromm will go undrafted in both SuperFlex and standard rookie drafts unless someone is truly willing to take a shot on him. Fromm has slid down my rookie QB boards.

Here, check out my previous TE Rankings: 40-3130-2120-1110-1

Check out my Rookie Mock Draft 1.0 , 2.0 and Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings

Check out my Top 10 Dynasty RB & Top 10 Dynasty WR as well!

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