With the majority of free agency wrapped up, there are many players whose value has changed, especially for dynasty purposes. Many have had major increases in their long-term outlook, while others were not so lucky. Let’s tackle some of the biggest winners and losers from the aftermath of this wild free agency period.

Winners:

Tua Tagovailoa

It is undeniable that everything surrounding Tua Tagovailoa has improved. The acquisition of new HC Mike McDaniel is a boost for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense as a whole. The additions of Running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, give him a legit run game. As a bonus, the addition of Edmonds provides Tagovailoa a secure pass-catching option out of the backfield. Then, there is the slew of receivers at his disposal. Mike Gesicki signed a one year deal after receiving the franchise tag. Tyreek Hill coming to Miami adds the most value for the young QB. While it is not great for Hill’s overall fantasy value, there is no denying that this addition will boost Tagovailoa’s fantasy value in a big way. Hill will pair Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson. This is a great trio of WRs at Tagovailoa’s disposal. Whether he is limited as a passer or not bears little weight when throwing to this loaded group of weapons. There was a world where Tagovailoa was no longer a Dolphin after 2022. That is not likely, making his dynasty outlook much more promising moving forward. Remember, if McDaniel made the 49ers work with a weaker receiving core and Jimmy Garoppolo. There is a good chance he can make this offense work with a capable Tua.

Ronald Jones

Before you argue with me about adding Ronald Jones to the winners’ list, allow me to ask a question. Besides Buffalo, is there a better situation Jones could have found himself in this offseason? He could have landed in Atlanta, where his role would have been secure. However, compared to Kansas City, Jones would not have nearly as many opportunities to score. In KC, Jones has the chance to take over as the primary ball carrier and goal-line back. After being left for dead in Tampa Bay, Jones lands on his feet as a Chief. HC Andy Reid stated, “He’s a tough runner with good vision. I’ll take that, and he needs that opportunity to feel like he’s a major part of this thing. We’ll give him that.” Jones has little to no skill as a pass-catcher. However, the 24-year old can easily take over as the two-down back and lead goal-line ball carrier. Jones finished 2021 with a 4.2 yards-per-carry total. Clyde Edwards-Helaire carried the ball 18 more times, but finished with 23 fewer yards after contact. Rojo has a shot at taking on a significant role in Kansas City. It won’t be as a pass catcher, but Jones can become the first and second down back. For a player whose fantasy value was in the toilet last season, this is an upgrade for those rostering him in dynasty leagues.

All Broncos’ WRs

The Broncos finally have a talented QB under center. After sending a haul for former Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, Denver is poised to make a deep playoff run. Best of all, we can finally have some confidence in the Denver WR core. The upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to Wilson is huge. We have already seen Wilson support two WRs for fantasy. He carried Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett to great success, and then the tandem of Lockett and DK Metcalf. Denver targeted their WRs with a minuscule 51.3% of their passes in 2021. That number is will go up with Wilson in town. The sky is the limit for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. Patrick is on the older side, but he has become a solid flex option for any dynasty roster. As for Sutton and Jeudy, both receivers now have Top 24 upside for the long-term. It is tough to gauge which one has more value moving forward. With that said, both receivers have gained a ton of value. With HC Nathaniel Hackett at the helm, this offense should look rejuvenated for 2022 and beyond. Hopefully, you bought these players last season, as their dynasty value is through the roof right now.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster would not have made this list had Tyreek Hill not been traded. However, with Hill gone, there are a lot of targets available to distribute. In fact, there are 159 of them up for grabs. The addition of Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not a one-for-one swap of Hill’s production and target share. I believe there is even a good chance the offense, as a whole, changes moving forward. HC Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, and he has had to adapt his offense in different ways numerous times. Smith-Schuster moving from a noodle-armed Ben Roethlisberger to one of the best QBs in Pat Mahomes is an obvious upgrade. Couple that with the available target share left after Hill’s departure, and Smith-Shuster has a chance to recapture some of the dynasty value he once had. We should not allow our expectations in check, but he has the chance to take a leap in production. There is a good chance Kansas City drafts a WR in the first three rounds. However, Smith-Shuster still has a chance to see a 20% target share or more. He can truly solidify himself and earn a big contract with the Chiefs if he has a good season on his one-year prove-it deal.

Gerald Everett

I wanted to end the list of offseason winners with a TE that many are not talking about right now. Gerald Everett has flashed numerous times throughout his five-year career but has never been able to remain a consistent fantasy option. However, after leaving the run-heavy Seattle offense, he has landed in a favorable situation as a Los Angeles Charger. While Everett had a great QB in Russell Wilson last season, he moves to a pass-heavy offense led by Justin Herbert. The targets will be flowing in LA, especially when comparing the numbers to Seattle’s offense in 2021. Chargers TEs saw a combined 137 targets in 2021, with starting TE Jared Cook receiving 83 of them. Everett saw 63 of the 97 targets the Seahawks TEs were given last season. Moving to a better offense with the potential to see 80 plus targets means we could finally see the breakout many have been calling for the past few years. If he balls out in 2022, there is a good chance he becomes a solid dynasty asset moving forward.

Losers:

Robert Woods

Robert Woods‘ star is fading. After tearing his ACL in practice leading up to Week 10 of last season, he has since been traded to the Tennessee Titans. Moving from an extremely pass-heavy offense to a run-first Titans team for his age-30 season, Woods is a diminishing dynasty asset. He has the chance to return value this season, but the days of having a sure-fire Top 24 asset are long gone. We saw his fantasy production dip last year, but he still averaged 6.6 targets per game. However, the Rams threw the ball 35.7 times per game, while the Titans threw the ball 31.4 times. It’s not a huge dip, but they were without their lead RB, Derrick Henry, for half the season. Woods will get a decent target share, but he has lost a sizable amount of weekly scoring upside. It may be time to sell.

Tyreek Hill

There is no doubt that the acquisition of Tyreek Hill helps Tua Tagovailoa and the entirety of Miami’s offense. However, Hill losses some fantasy value. Moving from Pat Mahomes to Tua is a downgrade. We do not know how often the Dolphins will throw the ball under new HC Mike McDaniel. However, there is a good chance it will not be nearly as often as the Chiefs have thrown it in recent years. Hill had 159 targets in 2021, while the Chiefs threw the ball 675 times. Now, he moves to a Dolphins offense that added firepower to their offense over the past two seasons while also throwing the ball 615 times. Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and DeVante Parker combined for 325 of those targets. The Patriots traded for Parker, but Miami added Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds, and Raheem Mostert. Wilson and Edmonds will command a decent target share of their own. Suffice it to say, not only will Hill lose some targets, but the high-value deep targets will come in fewer numbers. Hill retains his Top 12 upside. However, that Top 3 upside that he carried in the past may be gone. Many believe Tagovailoa will not be a starter if he can not perform after this season. That will likely be another negative for Hill as he works with a rookie or a less than desirable free agent in the coming seasons.

You can check out another article done by Chris Jones of Belly Up Fantasy about the Fallout of the Tyreek Hill trade.

The Seahawks Trio of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant

No one had their fantasy value depleted more by the Russell Wilson trade than the WR-duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With most free agent QBs signed and no trade partner in site, Seattle is looking at starting Drew Lock or a rookie quarterback in 2022. Considering this rookie class of quarterbacks is less than stellar, the Seahawks pass-catchers have lost a lot of fantasy value. Lockett has taken the biggest hit for dynasty. He is moving into his age-30 season with a significant downgrade at QB. The Seattle offense is run-first, and now it will be led by one of the least accurate quarterbacks in all of football or a rookie. Lockett will be more boom or bust than ever unless a trade happens. Metcalf could have a rough season if he is not dealt either. However, there is a silver lining for him. He is a free agent in 2023, meaning he will be free to sign wherever he wants. While losing an entire season of Top 12 value is not ideal, at least he could recoup some value by moving on. Noah Fant comes to Seattle as a part of the Wilson trade. The once-coveted dynasty asset is now looking at a rough few seasons in Seattle. He has struggled with Lock as his QB for a few seasons, but now he is in an offense that will have a tough time even sniffing the endzone. This offseason, Will Dissly has also signed a sizable contract, with GM John Schneider calling him a “core dude on offense.” Fant already struggled to stay consistent for fantasy the last few seasons, and now he is on a team looking towards a complete rebuild. Not great.

In Conclusion

The dynasty value of many players has shifted this offseason. There have been more moves made this year than any in recent memory. With an ever-changing NFL landscape, it is crucial to take a hard look at these players and decipher their actual value. Always manage your expectations, but stay water and be ready for the next wave of moves to help better your fantasy roster!

If you want more helpful fantasy content for dynasty or redraft leagues, check out Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy. You can follow me on Twitter, and thanks for reading!