Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Falcons Projections: Hotlanta

Hotlanta! The dirty birds are here. There are some fantasy superstars on this roster, no doubt. They aren’t getting any younger though. In case you missed it, last time we talked about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, let’s visit the Falcons and find out what kind of year we can expect in 2020.

QB:

Matt Ryan has a solid fantasy floor. I just don’t understand why he won’t throw more TDs to Julio…

Matt Ryan: Passing: 386/583-4,527 Yds, 27 TD: 9 INT
Rushing: 31-104-1 TD: 10 FMBL
Standard: 286.48 (14)
0.5 PPR: 286.48 (14)
1 PPR: 286.48 (14)

Matt Schaub: Passing: On his AARP discounts to his grandkids.
Rushing: Matt Schaub does not much fast.
I am a little shocked this guy is still on a team. Falcons fans will be too if Ryan goes down.

People are gonna be angry that I have Matt Ryan this low, but you guys have to understand something. He has very limited running ability. And I am projecting him throwing for 4,500 Yds! He is 14.1 points behind 10th. So it’s not like I am projecting a bad year. I just don’t think Ryan is getting better at this point in his career.

I promise Matt Schaub isn’t getting better at this point in his career. But if Ryan goes down, he could have some value as a superflex. I feel crazy saying that, but it’s true.

RB:

If the Gurley from the past shows up, watch out! If bad knee Gurley shows up, the Falcons have problems.

Todd Gurley: Rushing: 226-936-9 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 63 targets, 46 catches, 428 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 199.4 (14)
0.5 PPR: 222.4 (16)
1 PPR: 245.4 (16)

Ito Smith: Rushing: 54-215-2 TD
Receiving: 21-16-98 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 49.3 (64)
0.5 PPR: 57.3 (64)
1 PPR: 65.3 (64)

Qadree Ollison: Rushing: 29-99-1 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 4 targets, 2 catches, 16 Yds
Standard: 16.5 (88)
0.5 PPR: 17.5 (91)
1 PPR: 18.5 (92)

Brian Hill: Rushing: 16-64
Receiving: 4 targets, 2 catches, 17 Yds
Standard: 8.1 (99)
0.5 PP: 9.1 (100)
1 PPR: 10.1 (102)

Gurley is an unknown, let’s be real here. We know what he can do, but we also know about his injuries. Atlanta signed him on the cheap, and why wouldn’t they run him into the ground. If Gurley stays healthy, he could easily outdo these projections. But will he stay healthy? I like some exposure to him, but he makes me very nervous. High ceiling, low floor here.

The backup situation, makes me crazy. I project Smith to get the next most touches, but any four of these guys could win the RB2 job. Hill intrigues, but it does seem like Ito is higher on the depth chart to me. None of these guys will be worthy of starting without a Gurley injury. One of them will capitalize if that happens, but your guess is as good as mine. I have some small exposure to both Smith and Hill as fliers.

WR:

Julio Jones. Probably the most talented WR in the league. Hes gonna put up big numbers, except for TDs lol.

Julio Jones: Rushing: 1-8, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 146 targes, 96 catches, 1,363 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 172.1 (7)
0.5 PPR: 220.1 (6)
1 PPR: 168.1 (4)

Calvin Ridley: Rushing: 3-23, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 107 targets, 71 catches, 943 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 131.6 (32)
0.5 PPR: 167.1 (29)
1 PPR: 202.6 (30)

Russell Gage: Rushing: 3-16, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 75 targets, 48 catches, 463 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 64.9 (76)
0.5 PPR: 88.9 (73)
1 PPR: 112.9 (67)

Laquon Treadwell: Receiving: 21 targets, 13 catches, 141 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 20.1 (122)
0.5 PPR: 26.6 (120)
1 PPR: 33.1 (120)

Christian Blake: Receiving: 26 targets, 14 catches, 128 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 18.8 (127)
0.5 PPR: 25.8 (122)
1 PPR: 32.8 (122)

Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving: 9 targets, 6 catches, 88 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 14.8 (135)
0.5 PPR: 17.8 (138)
1 PPR: 20.8 (140)

Julio Jones remains elite. He just catches so many balls and racks up so many yards. But his lack of td production throughout the majority of his career agitates me on a personal level. However, I will take the Falcons star in a draft no problemo, especially PPR leagues. Julio is going to eat. Hes going to be around 100 catches. Draft him with confidence.

Ridley has a nose for the end zone. I am slightly lower on him than most but think he is a solid option. His floor is very safe, and he could wind up as a top 12 WR with the right scenario. I just don’t think it’s gonna work out that way. And even though I like him, I have minimal exposure because people grab him too early for me.

Gage is the only other guy worth rostering. He can be depth for your flex spot, but don’t expect anything spectacular, he is safe at best. The rest of these guys, don’t do it. It’s not worth the roster spot. Julio eats, Ridley will too, and there just aren’t enough balls for the Falcons to feature any of the other guys in any real way.

TE:

Hurst has glorious hair. And he is pretty good at football too. And he knows where his name is on his jersey!

Hayden Hurst: Receiving: 77 targets, 52 catches, 619 Yds, 5 TD
Standard: 91.9 (13)
0.5 PPR: 117.9 (10)
1 PPR: 143.9 (10)

Jaeden Graham: Receiving: 23 targets, 16 catches, 182 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 24.4 (55)
0.5 PPR: 32.2 (55)
1 PPR: 40.2 (55)

Carson Meier: Receiving: 7 targets, 4 catches, 41 Yds
Standard: 4.1 (79)
0.5 PPR: 6.1 (79)
1 PPR: 8.1 (79)

Hurst will step right into Hooper’s shoes in 2020. He is going to be good, and what he lacks in elite upside he should make up for with a safe floor. Matt Ryan throws more tds to his tight ends than he does to Julio. Hurst is gonna be a weapon in the red zone for the Falcons.

Avoid the other two. Graham only becomes viable if Hurst goes down. But you want the TE1 here, to be sure. He is going to get some volume.

I project the Falcons to score 1,289.18 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is 12th. I want exposure to Julio and Ridley,

Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Carolina Panthers.