People often overreact to week 1 performances. But 3 weeks in, we need to start learning from trends. ADP is more about sunk cost than present value. Of course, injuries have changed things. Things like fading Nick Chubb and rising on Jerome Ford are obvious. But there are other less obvious things to act on now before it’s too late. Who are some fallers after 3 weeks? I’ll choose one from each position.

Justin Fields

People were way too optimistic that a QB who was bad for two years would all of a sudden become good. However, there was confidence that no matter how poor he played as an NFL QB, that his rushing would buoy his fantasy value. That confidence now seems misplaced. He might be able to turn this around, but it’s looking less certain now.

Derrick Henry

It’s possible the king has lost his step. It is also possible the offence is so poor, he can’t do anything. It’s possible it’s both. Regardless, he is not worth the 2nd round pick he was likely taken in. He has been outsnapped by rookie Tyjae Spears over the past two games. Something is wrong and the opportunities to sell high on his name may be dwindling.

Garrett Wilson

He had decent fantasy performances in the first 2 weeks. However, one was due to a crazy play where his QB threw it to the defender and Garrett managed to bat it away and catch it in one move for a touchdown. The other was from a long touchdown run where Malik Hooker missed the tackle he should have had. With Aaron Rodgers, he had a top 3 ceiling. With Zach Wilson, he might not even be startable. However, there is a chance the Jets wisen up and start anyone else, even Trevor Siemian could make him startable again. But the Siemian signing shows they may not be able to find anyone better. He could be worth selling if you can get a starter in return.

Kyle Pitts

He had a good matchup and had a decent game because of it. I’d sell now because we’ve seen over the past two seasons that Arthur Smith does not want to throw the ball much and that even when that happens, Desmond Ridder isn’t someone who can deliver high value targets.

Wrap-Up

It can hurt to sell low on someone you drafted early, but it’s better to sell at a loss than to wait until it’s too late. I don’t expect these fallers after 3 weeks to rebound to their draft value.

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