At the end of every season, I always find myself asking “what if?” What if I drafted a running back first instead of Davante Adams? Maybe I could have seen Cordarrelle Patterson coming. What if I could have gotten that trade done for Antonio Gibson? I call this Fantasy 20/20. These questions don’t do us any good if we just ask them and do nothing about it. All that does is create doubt in our decision-making for seasons to come. The league champion is often someone willing to think differently and stick to those unique processes. It is someone who does not hesitate on making a big move that could make or break their season.

The common saying is “Hindsight is 20/20.” We are going to look at how we can better prepare for next season by using our fantasy 20/20 vision. This weekly series will break down what we missed on specific players in our process coming into this season. We will break down both players that exceeded expectations and those that flopped. We are going to ignore situations where an injury played a major role in the boom or bust of a player. For instance, Raheem Mostert getting hurt just two carries into the season is a big reason why we have Elijah Mitchell as a top running back this year. I want to focus on the flaws in the process of the majority so that we all may become better each year.

The Here and Now

I cannot find one expert or fantasy owner who saw this coming. With an ADP of RB88 and 263 overall, Cordarrelle Patterson was largely undrafted. In a lot of cases, he was not even added off waivers until Week 3 or Week 4. He is now the RB6 on the season setting new career highs in almost all categories. He has 9 total touchdowns on the year and has become the ultimate utility player, which is rare in the NFL. Patterson has only had two weeks where he has scored less than 10 fantasy points in PPR. In addition to those two performances, there have only been two other times he has scored under 15 fantasy points. Averaging a consistent 18.2 fantasy points in PPR formats is the reason why Cordarrelle Patterson is the first boom player I want to investigate.

With the playoffs upon us, I believe it is safe to say that Patterson falls into the category of potential league winner this year. Considering he is a player you picked up off of waivers and then were able to start every single week, except for Week 11 where he sat out with an injury, is season changing. With his remaining schedule, he could carry you to a championship. So how could the vast majority in this industry and community completely miss seeing this coming? Looking back at what we know now, can we find signs that we missed in the summer? Let’s take a look.

Ghost of Fantasy Past

I want to go back to 2020 where we saw Todd Gurley surprise a lot of people. He did not hit the numbers we were accustomed to, but he was not far off. Regardless, a running back with an injury history changing team was not something anyone was excited about. Let’s take a closer look at the situation he was in there. Gurley was one of three running backs for Atlanta that year. Ito Smith and Brian Hill had both been in the system since 2018 and were trusted and comfortable in their roles. Even though Gurley led the way in rushing attempts with 195 compared to Brian Hill who had 100, all three backs were involved. For instance, Gurley and Hill both had 25 receptions with Smith also having 17. For the most part, Gurley was the lead back, but situationally all three were being used regularly. This just meant coming into this year there were a lot of touches to go around.

Coming into the 2021 season, the running back situation for the Atlanta Falcons was vastly different and less clear. All three runners from the previous year were now gone. The backfield was presumably going to be led by career journeyman Mike Davis and backed up by Qadree Ollison. This should have been our first big signal that something interesting could happen here. For a team to enter the season with only two running backs on their depth chart is not typical. On top of that, the starter was a veteran who never really grasped the opportunity when given to him. The backup was a guy who could still be considered a rookie with only 8 games and 22 rushing attempts under his belt in 2019. None of this should have seemed stable.

Changing Our Thinking

How could we have seen this situation differently and maybe in future similar situations as well? In looking back at this, instead of seeing this backfield as one to simply stay away from, we could have looked deeper to see the opportunity. It won’t be like this with every situation like this one, but there was one big difference here, Cordarrelle Patterson.

Patterson was listed as a wide receiver on the Falcons’ depth chart to start the year. At the time he was sitting behind Calvin Ridley, Christian Blake, Russell Gage, and Olamide Zaccheaus. That would have made him the team’s number five receiver, but his contract had him making roughly the same base salary and cap hit as Calvin Ridley. It is a universal rule in this industry to follow the money. Money can often tell the story we are missing from behind the scenes. Atlanta was not going to pay Patterson that much for one year to maybe play in five-wide sets and to relieve tired receivers.

The Clues Were There

What clues could we have seen to show us that Patterson could be used in a hybrid role? We failed to look at the trends of his career. When we go back to his time in Minnesota he was primarily a wide receiver. He did earn double-digit carries in his first two years there, but he was a receiver. In Oakland, he was much of the same. The trend started to take shape during his one year in New England in 2018. Listed as a wide receiver for the team Patterson had 42 rushing attempts through 15 games and 28 targets as a wide receiver. This was mainly because of injuries to the Patriots backfield at the time, but it showcased the capabilities of Patterson.

When we jump to 2019 and his first year with Chicago, his numbers were lower. Through 16 games he only had 17 rushing attempts, but he also had 17 targets. In 2020 he was more involved and through 16 games he had 64 rushing attempts and only 25 targets. The trend could have been noticed. In 2020 with Chicago he experienced his most opportunity since his rookie year in Minnesota. He experienced his highest catch percentage of his career and showed his versatility.

Right Under Our Noses

Throughout Patterson’s career, we have seen him as a returner, meaning he can move effectively in open space with speed and agility. We have seen him as a receiver, showing that he understands route construction. Seeing him come out of the backfield in recent years also should have shown us his strength and power along with his football IQ to be able to be patient and find the right running lane. When you combine all of his roles throughout his career, we should have seen this coming.

There was nothing to prove that Mike Davis and Qadree Ollison could carry this backfield as a two-headed committee. Seeing Patterson sitting there as a wide receiver five and knowing his history with being able to create plays with the ball in his hands should have tipped us all off to something coming. Patterson gained running back eligibility back in 2018 with the Patriots and we all forgot this for some reason. On June 9th Scott Blair of AtlantaFalcons.com announced that Patterson would play running back. Sometimes depth charts take a little bit to get updated, so we need to make sure to continue to do our research from beat writers and social media.

Buy or Sell Market

We are now in season. Patterson is doing his thing and it’ no longer a secret that he is going to be an impact player. Given his early BYE in Week 6, he was not going to be a sell candidate for me. I had no draft capital invested in him. If I were going to sell him, it would have had to be a great deal. If you were looking to buy him, I believe the best time would have been right around his BYE week. Maybe his owner’s situation was a tough week for BYEs and you could get him on the low. He also came out after Week 6 and had one of his lower performances with 14 points. An owner could have been thinking the magic was wearing off. You need to play off of your opponent’s emotions. Only you know where their weaknesses are.

Ghost of Fantasy Future

I believe when we do a deep dive exercise like this, we can learn a lot about our process flaws. We can not only fix our flaws, but we can find the edges to gain on others. If we have a flaw in our process, it is most likely that at least 75 percent of other owners also have that same flaw in thinking. When we take the time to fix our process, we enter that top 25 percent of owners who have a real shot at success in the industry. Remember to use all the information provided to you by looking at multiple previous seasons. Look at the division of work at the position in each season and find the underlying circumstances that led to the result of production for that year. These are the things we can do and that I will be doing for you throughout this series moving forward.

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