This week I faced a dilemma. My original plan was to write an article on Allen Robinson. After extensive research, I was unable to find any correlating stats that I felt comfortable basing an argument around. The conclusion I came to is that Robinson simply did not have his heart in the game this year. You can also say some other factors such as a rookie unknown quarterback and some coaching issues. I put most of my confidence on all of the offseason rumors of possibly trading him that did not happen. I would not be surprised if Robinson does not want to stick around for another fresh start build in Chicago after doing it there and in Jacksonville prior.

So, I had to pivot. We find ourselves looking at Leonard Fournette who seems to have taken over a two-headed nightmare in Tampa Bay. What I have learned in researching this article is that sometimes the stats alone do not equal the result. We must use other means of research to dig deeper and make our predictions. Social media and articles become just as useful as stats and models when preparing for a season. We proved that with Cordarrelle Patterson in the last edition. Now let’s do it again with Leonard Fournette.

The Season That Was

Leading up to the 2020 season, there was a lot of talk about the Tampa Bay offense and its depth. Signing a guy like Leonard Fournette seemed like overkill, but it potentially gave the offense endless options. No one knew what to expect though when it came to the split between Fournette and Ronald Jones. Jones was up and coming and was becoming a fantasy favorite as a sleeper with the potential to break out. Fournette was someone we knew and felt comfortable with but had fallen out of consensus favor in the industry. This led to a lot of back and forth contradicting takes on who would lead and have the most success.

We also had the all-time greatest quarterback in Tom Brady and an unpredictable coach in Bruce Arians. Arians has proven to ride a hot hand in the offense. All of this equaled a situation that, for one, was mostly staying away from if I could. The rest of the offense was prolific with weapons that would demand attention. The thought would be that Brady was going to air it out as he always wanted to and have success. Was the run game going to be a set-up for the play-action and not be used to its full potential?

These were questions that no one had the answer to. We got what we thought was the answer pretty quick. After an audition for both backs through Weeks 1 and 2, it seemed like Jones had won the job. This was a little surprising given that Fournette had a better stat line in Week 2. When Fournette was effectively inactive for Weeks 4-6 though it opened the door for Jones. Jones ran for 330 yards and two touchdowns, adding in 11 receptions in those three weeks. Other than a week or two it was clear that Fournette had a passing down role and that was it.

Why Would We Have Thought?

The pass catcher role can be useful for fantasy in PPR leagues. It is still not ideal for a safe floor and consistent production. Looking at the stats, I would have told you that it made sense that Ronald Jones be considered an RB2. Fournette would be a FLEX with back-end RB2 upside if Jones got hurt.

The one spot where Fournette was able to prove himself before the season was in the playoffs. He scored in all four games for the Buccaneers. He became more involved in the passing game going from 4.96 targets to 7.05 targets per game. What was most interesting though was his business decision after the 2020 season. Fournette admitted he could have gotten more money after his playoff performance, but he chose to stay in Tampa because he felt humbled there.

It was Last Chance U for Fournette and AB last season pic.twitter.com/x1w81BmswE

— Sports by Tampa Bay Times (@TBTimes_Sports) March 31, 2021

Deciphering Information

This is the type of information that can give us an edge. When a player who was a huge talent coming out of college, a high draft pick, and had proven success in the NFL gets cut and then chooses to make more money because he likes his mental state of where he is, that is a massive green flag for me. When highly skilled athletes have a rejuvenated mental experience, it is fair to expect an added amount of motivation. As I said, we knew he had the skill to succeed and be explosive. Was this the last key he needed to sustain it?

It turns out, a mentally motivated and humbled Leonard Fournette is just as dangerous as a first-round Leonard Fournette. It also turns out that after a year of “cutting it lose” from Tom Brady just meant that he was going to be looking for a more typical structured offense that we have come to know him for. Compared to 2020, Fournette through 14 games has already doubled his targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

We have watched Tom Brady make a role-playing star out of Kevin Faulk, Rex Burkhead, James White, and others on the premise of catching the ball. The difference here is that Fournette also has the physical ability to be a lead running back as well. If we took the time to look at the potential offensive production we may have noticed an opportunity for Fournette to be a dual-threat stud this year.

What We Are Left With

What has happened this year has been unpredictable and exciting for Fournette fans. To see any player come back from what seems like an eventual abyss is exciting because we get to watch someone fight for their dream and evolve to believe in themselves. It is something we can all take back to our everyday lives. When we are faced with our toughest challenge, instead of throwing our hands up we can put our fists up. We can choose to fight back. In boxing, you protect your face, take your body shots, and then deliver a devastating blow with your fists. Fournette has done that here. To be the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and be cut after the 2019 season can feel like a devastating body shot.

What has been more impressive than his attempts, yards, and touchdowns through 14 games has been his drive. He overcame being cut and then sharing the stage with Ronald Jones. We have seen many men fall to these circumstances before and disappear.

Fournette will most likely finish this season as a top 10 fantasy running back. Next year, make sure you look at interviews and appearances done by the player. We cannot trust any words more so than the ones that come out of their mouths. Do the work to find information that can either corroborate or destroy the hypothesis you have going into the season. Don’t be afraid to pivot when your take is wrong. View it as a chance to be better instead of a chance to be embarrassed.

We are scientists of the sports world. We have takes, we research those takes, and we either succeed in our process, or we learn from it and we adjust our process to be better next time. There is no losing situation when you approach the research in the correct mindset. Only room for growth. Find your takes. Believe in your takes. Do not be afraid to believe your takes are wrong.

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