How exciting is it that the time millions of people have waited for arrives this week? Of course, I am talking about Opening Day is this week. Surely, there are fantasy drafts occurring all over the country. While some have undoubtedly completed their drafts, many are waiting for the last possible moment. In the spirit of assisting those managers in preparing for their time on the clock, Belly Up presents this fantasy baseball draft analysis of a draft.

This draft was conducted live this past Sunday night, the replay of which can be found here. There was a lot of fun had by all, despite the fact the ESPN platform crashed several times during the draft. There was plenty of discussion on just about every baseball fantasy subject known to man. By all means, check it out! Full disclosure, the draft was a 10 person, head-to-head, points league. Without any further interruptions, let’s get the analysis started!

First Overall: Shohei Otani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels

Without any doubt, when it comes to head-to-head points leagues, Shohei Ohtani must be the first overall selection. It is like getting two players for the price of one. Ohtani will provide the opportunity for points that no other player can possibly match. That was the case a year ago as Ohtani outscored his closest rival, Vladimir Guerrero, by over 200 points in ESPN leagues, 802 to 577. Ohtani clearly delivers offensive stats with the best of the game. Need homers? Ohtani hit 46. Need steals? He had 26. How about runs? RBIs? He drove in an even 100. Ohtani scored 103 runs. He also had a league leading eight triples and walked 96 times. Further, he finished with a .372 OBP and a .965 OPS.

Those numbers are outstanding, no question. However, they aren’t the only reason Ohtani should be the first pick in every H2H points league throughout the land. Add in his pitching stats, and Ohtani is on another level next to every other major league player. He made 23 starts in 2021 and allowed two or fewer runs in 16 of them. He finished with a 9-2 record, a 3.18 ERA, 156 strikeouts and a 1.090 WHIP.

The Angels went easy on Ohtani on the mound last season, as he was coming off an injury. There are no such worries this time around. He has been named their Opening Day starter. MLB adopted a rule that if a pitcher is also the DH, when he comes off the mound, he can continue to hit. There is nothing stopping Ohtani from an even more history season than he had a year ago. If a manager has the top pick in H2H points leagues, turn off the brain and simply make Ohtani the choice. It really is that simple.

Second Overall: Bryce Harper, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

It didn’t take long for the first surprise of the draft to appear, as Bryce Harper flew off the board with the second overall selection. Perhaps, it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise, giving that Harper is the defending National League MVP. He appeared in 141 games in 2021, finishing with a .307-35-84 stat line. In addition, Harper scored 101 runs, whacked 42 doubles and walked 100 times. The base on balls is something that Harper has been known for. He has had over 100 walks four times in his major league career. In another season, he produced 99.

Harper’s other stats were no joke, either. He produced a .427 OBP and an otherworldly 1.040 OPS. The doubles total led the league. Harper has scored 95 or more runs in four consecutive full seasons. Surprisingly, he can even steal a base on occasion, as he had 13 a year ago and has had double digits in thefts six times.

The only real negative to his game is the strikeouts, as he had 134 a year ago, which can be a pain in points leagues. With that being said, Harper is a complete player. Even so, being the second overall choice in any fantasy draft is a stretch. However, as they say, go and get your man, which is what happened here. It will be interesting to see who has the better season, Harper or Soto, chosen next.

Third Overall: Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals

Without any question, Juan Soto is one of the most talented players in the game today. Best of all, at only 23 years of age, there are several highly productive seasons left for him. 2022 should be no exception. In 2021, Soto’s stats jump right off the page. He appeared in 151 games, with a .313/29/95 batting line. In addition, he posted a league leading .465 OBP with a .534 slugging and .999 OPS. He also scored 111 runs.

Other worldly stats, no? However, where the numbers go really off the charts are his 145 BBs versus 93 strikeouts. The walks led the league. In today’s game, many hitters strike out a hundred more times than they draw a free pass. That is not the case with Soto. These stats suggest Albert Pujols in his prime. The Nationals lineup isn’t what it was when Washington won the World Series just three seasons ago with the losses of Rendon, Turner and others.

Even so, Soto can be counted on to produce some of the best fantasy numbers around. With that in mind, it is clear why he comes off the board high in any draft, regardless of format. Being the third pick here, he will return fabulous value for his manager. That is an easy statement to make on this fantasy baseball draft analysis edition.

Fourth Overall: Vladimir Guerrero, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays

When pitchers go to sleep and the nightmares come, surely Vladimir Guerrero leads the way into the darkness. When that day’s pitcher looks at the Blue Jays’ lineup card, he knows Guerrero will be on it, as he missed just a single game in 2021. Guerrero has a presence at the plate that is unmatched in MLB. It is easy to see why, as he was at the top of the leader board in virtually every offensive category last season.

Guererro led the league in runs scored (123), home runs (48), OBP (.401), slugging (.601) and OPS (1.002) and total bases (363). However, the offensive bright lights don’t even end there. Guerrero had 188 hits, a .311 batting average, walked 86 times and struck out only 110. If it weren’t for the exploits on Ohtani, Guerrero would have been the clear most valuable player in the American League last season.

And like many of the other players on this list, Guerrero is only beginning his career, having three seasons under his belt by the age of 23. The only stat that he won’t provide is stolen bases. That is completely meaningless in fantasy, though, and Guerrero absolutely deserves his spot at the top of any draft, regardless of format.

Fifth Overall: Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians

When it comes to providing stats across the board, few players can match Jose Ramirez. Appearing in 152 games, Ramirez hit .266-36-103. The homers and RBIs are impressive enough, but his 32 doubles, 111 runs scored, and 27 steals take him to a completely different atmosphere. However, the most amazing stat might just be that Rameriz was thrown out trying to steal just four times in 2021. His batting average wasn’t the greatest, but his .355 OBP more than makes up for that.

Further, his .893 OPS isn’t anything to scoff at, either. It is the sixth straight season Rameriz has been over .800, with three seasons over .900. That is consistent production that fantasy owners can rely on. Additionally, they provide comfort and security when a manager calls his name on draft day. With an almost unmatched combination of power and speed, it is easy to see why Rameriz shows up on this fantasy baseball draft analysis edition.

Sixth Overall: Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians

Obviously, the biggest surprise of the draft showed up with the sixth overall pick. There were several pitchers rated higher than Shane Bieber going into the 2022 season. That didn’t stop this manager from making him the first starter off the board this time around. Bieber is coming off an injury marred 2021 season in which he only made 16 starts. Bieber’s win total of seven was actually fewer than he had in the shortened 2020 season, in which he won eight games.

Of course, that was when Bieber dominated the game of baseball, winning the pitching triple crown and the Cy Young Award. If Bieber can return to that kind of production, he is clearly one of the best pitchers in the game. Certainly, he will have to produce more than 96.2 innings and 134 strikeouts from a year ago. Bieber made 33 starts and pitched an astronomical by today’s standards 214.1 innings in 2019. Additionally, he struck out 259 hitters.

The manager that made this choice has to hope Bieber reaches those numbers to justify the selection here. That is a big ask, however. In the estimation of this fantasy baseball draft analysis, it would have made more sense to select another player here. Bieber would almost certainly would have been there in the second round. The regular season will prove if this is the correct pick or not. As with Harper above, sometimes a manager just has to go get their guy, regardless of what anyone else thinks.

Seventh Overall: Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

The second starting pitcher to come off the board was Corbin Burnes with the seventh pick. Burnes put it all together in 2021 at the age of 26. He started 28 games, pitched 167 innings and produced a league leading 2.43 ERA. Further, he produced a 11-5 record and was one of the leading reasons the Brewers won the N.L. Central in 2021.

Even with all of the above being the case, where Burnes truly stood out was his 234 strikeouts against just 34 walks. Striking out 200 more hitters than walking is a feat that is unheard of in baseball. The atmospheric stats continue with his 0.940 WHIP and league leading ERA+ (176) and SO9 (12.6). Not Surprisingly, Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award last season.

Best of all, the season that Burnes turned in last year was not an outlier. As evidence, note that his ERA has been 2.61 or below in three of his four MLB seasons. Milwaukee should have a quality team once again behind Burnes, which will lead to increased win chances. Most likely, his other stats will come down a bit. Even so, Burnes is a top pitcher, perhaps even the top starter in all of baseball. There is absolutely nothing to criticize this selection on this fantasy baseball draft analysis edition.

Eighth Overall: Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

The eighth player off the board was Mookie Betts. That should be no surprise, as Betts has been one of the premier players in baseball for several seasons now. His stats at age 29 don’t fly off the page as they have in the past. However, there is still a lot to like: 121 games played with a .262-23-58 batting line. Additionally, Betts scored 93 runs, while walking 66 times. His strikeouts were minimal with 86.

Further, Betts produced a .366 OBP and a .852 OPS. The 93 runs were the first time he has scored fewer than a 100 in his last 5 full seasons. included in that are two league leading totals of 129 and 135. The good news? The 122 games were the fewest he has played in a complete season since he was a rookie in 2014.

With that in mind, expect a return to Betts’ usual most valuable player level production in 2022. A plus .300 average with 30 homers, 30 steals and bushels of runs scored would look great on any fantasy team. In short, Betts definitely deserves to be selected in the top ten of this or any draft.

Ninth Overall: Trea Turner, 2B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

While not quite able to provide the power numbers that Ramirez can, Trea Turner checks every other possible box to support him as a first-round selection. In splitting his season between Washington and L.A., Turner put together a season for the ages. He led the league with a .328 BA, 195 hits and 32 stolen bases. The steal is largely a forgotten art in today’s game. Even with that being true, managers looking for speed can do no better than Turner.

However, that is not the end of Turner’s game, as he also hit 28 homers and had 34 doubles. Additionally, he checks in with a .385 OBP and a .911 OPS. The OPS was second in all of baseball for middle infielders to the Padres’ Fernando Tatis. There was a time for health concerns regarding Turner, but those days are long since been placed in the rear-view mirror.

In two of the last three full seasons, Turner has appeared in 148 or more games. He played in 122 in the other. The Dodgers have a stacked lineup like no other team in 2022. Surely, Turner will rake in eye-popping numbers. Clearly, this fantasy baseball draft analysis shows he is one of the top players in the game and a no doubt first round pick.

Tenth Overall: Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

The last player off the board in this draft was Gerrit Cole. Unquestionably, Cole is one of the top pitchers in MLB. It was a bit of a surprise that Cole lasted this long here. For proof, just look at last season. In 2022, Cole made 30 starts and finished with 181.1 innings pitched. His win-loss record was a healthy 16-8, His 3.23 ERA was somewhat higher than would have been expected of him, but he still finished third in the American League.

Without doubt, where Cole really excelled was in the strike out versus walks arena. Cole struck out 243 batters, while walking just 41. That statistic was the main cause of his excellent 1.059 WHIP. Meanwhile, the 16 wins led the league. Furthermore, Cole has had an ERA of 3.23 or below for 4 straight seasons. One of the concerns involving Cole was how he would respond to the ban on foreign substances on the baseball put in place last year.

The numbers indicate that Cole responded just fine. There should be no such issues facing him in the 2022 season. In the end, Cole will be one of the top pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. Even better for the manager who selected him, his fantasy numbers will be first rate as well. Clearly, there is no debate why Cole would be selected in the first round of any fantasy draft.

The Final Word

Thank you for joining me for this fantasy baseball draft analysis edition! As always, I welcome any and all suggestions, comments and input from my readers. Agree or disagree with any of the selections or the analysis of them? Let’s discuss! Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports & Picks for the latest MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and all the sports news!