Monday, December 23, 2024

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Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Tiers

Welcome to spring! The calendar has flipped to March, meaning real baseball will occur this month. Fantasy managers are hard at work preparing for their drafts and the season ahead. Without question, at least for me, the excitement for baseball, both real and fantasy, grows daily. To help with the draft and season prep work, I have been writing articles every week. This week is no exception, as I submit my Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers Tiers edition.

As with all my articles, which can be found on the Belly Up Fantasy Website, debate and discussion are strongly encouraged. Whether you agree or disagree isn’t important. Let’s talk about it! Now, without wasting another minute, let’s get down to it.

Tier One

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Bobby Witt Jr, Kansas City Royals, age 23, 158 games, .276-30-96, 177 hits, 97 runs, 121K, 40BB, 49 SB, 15 CS, .319/.495/.813, .285 BAbip, 131 OPS+, .192 ISO, 17.4 SO%, 5.8 BB%, 11 3B, FantasyPros: 1, ESPN: 1.

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers, age 29, 119 games, .327-33-96, 156 hits, 88 runs, 88K, 49BB, .390/.623/.1.013, .340 BAbip, 170 OPS+, .296 ISO, 16.4 SO%, 9.1 BB%, FantasyPros: 4, ESPN: 2.

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies, age 30, 155 games, .266-26-76, 170 hits, 102 runs, 150K, 45BB, 30 SB, 0 CS, .320/.459/.778, .310 BAbip, 111 OPS+, .192 ISO, 21.7 SO%, 6.5 BB%, FantasyPros: 2, ESPN: 3.

Comment: Unlike my second base and third base tier rankings, there is more than one player at the top at the shortstop position. In this case, make that three. Let me crystal clear about one thing. Seager being in this tier is dependent on him being healthy to start the season. At the moment, he is recovering from sports hernia surgery in January.

When healthy, Seager is clearly one of the best players in the game. Even with only 119 games played last season, he was second in the A.L. MVP race. He is a two-time World Series MVP. Even so, as stated, check his health on draft day. If he’s not 100 percent, move him down a tier.

With all that said, Witt is the top player here. He’s still only 23 years old, but he’s the complete package. If he can just rein in his strikeouts and not be so haphazard on the bases, he would approach the top of all players overall. FantasyPros has him ranked as the second best player in fantasy. Just know, if you spend that high of a draft pick on him, his value will not match the selection.

As for Turner, he had a very down year based his past production. Still only 30, there is every reason to expect a bounceback to what he accomplished in 2022: 100 runs and 100 RBIs. He has led the league in hits and steals twice each in his career. Don’t be surprised if he puts up a 30-30 season in 2024.

Tier Two

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Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles, age 22, 150 games, .255-18-82, 100 runs, 143 hits, 159K, 56BB, .328/.489/.814, 125 OPS+, .306 BAbip, .234 ISO, 25.6 SO%, 9.0 BB%, FantasyPros: 6, ESPN: 4.

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets, age 27, 153 games, .271-33-100, 90 runs, 157 hits, 126K, 62BB, .351/.500/.851, 126 OPS+, .229 ISO, 19.3 SO%, 9.5 BB%, .292 BAbip, FantasyPros: 3, ESPN: 2.

Comment: When it comes to young players, few are as exciting as Henderson. He is coming off a Rookie of the Year season in which he finished eighth in the MVP voting. Even with that being said, Henderson had some struggles early in the year, Obviously, he put the rough patch behind him and came roaring down the stretch. Expect that to be the norm in 2024. Add in the fact that he is eligible at 3B as well only increases his value.

Regarding Lindor, many in the fantasy community seemingly have forgotten how good a player he can be. The Mets were a mess a year ago, but Lindor put together a quality season with 33 homers and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ indicates what kind of player he is. It would be no surprise if he lifts himself up into tier one this season. New York can’t be as bad as they were a year ago, which can only help Lindor. This Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition says draft him with confidence.

Tier Three

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Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays, age 25, 135 games, .306-20-73, 175 hits, 69 runs, 115K, 27BB, .339/.475/.814, 123 OPS+, .355 BAbip, .168 ISO, 19.1 SO%, 4.5 BB%, FantasyPros: 7, ESPN: 7.

Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs, age 26, 150 games, .282-9-68, 175 hits, 98 runs, 83K, 49BB, .346/.383/.729, 97 OPS+, .312 BAbip, .100 ISO, 12.1 SO%, 7.1 BB%, 43 SB, 7 CS, FantasyPros: 11, ESPN: 6.

Ha Seong Kim, San Diego Padres, age 28, 152 games, .260-17-60, 84 runs, 140 hits, 124K, 75BB, .351/.398/.749, 110 OPS+ .306 BAbip, .138 ISO, 19.8 SO%, 12.0 BB%, FantasyPros: 13, ESPN: 9.

Comment: Everyone in the baseball community, fantasy and otherwise, has been waiting for Bichette to put forth a quality season. He accomplished that in 2023, hitting .306. Still only 25, he is capable of more. In an excellent Toronto lineup, look for over 25 homers and 80-90 RBIs. If you miss out on one of the shortstops above, Bichette is a nice fall back position.

When it comes to Hoerner, he won’t provide the HRs the others near this ranking. However, He does play nearly every day and he does score runs. Further, he has one of the lowest SO% to be found. It is refreshing in today’s game to come across a player who doesn’t strike out 125 times a game. Such a player can be extra valuable in points leagues. His 2B and SS eligibility certainly adds to his appeal. Clearly, he belongs in this tier.

Regarding Kim, I wrote about him in my Fantasy Baseball Second-Base Tiers  and Fantasy Baseball Third Base tiers editions. Everything said there applies here as well.

Tier Four

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Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds, age 22, 98 games, .235-13-44, 91 hits, 67 runs, 144K, 35BB, .300/.410/.710, 89 OPS+, .336 BAbip, .175 ISO, 33.7 SO%, 8.2 BB%, 35 SB, 8 CS, FantasyPros: 8, ESPN: 12

Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs, age 30, 147 games, .244-22-80, 138 hits, 81 runs, 154K, 66BB, .328/.416/.744, 99 OPS+, .297 BAbip, .172 ISO, 24.1 SO%, 10.3 BB%, FantasyPros 15, ESPN 14.

Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds, age 24, 89 games, .290-16-50, 106 hits, 65 runs, 115K, 31BB, .357/.507,/864, 129 OPS+, .385 BAbip, 131 OPS+, .216 ISO, 28.5 SO%, 7.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 10, ESPN: 10.

Comment: Hard as it may be to believe, two Cincinnati players belong on this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition. In fact, if De La Cruz could get his SO%, which is way too high, under control, he would rank much higher. Perhaps in his second season, he can do so. Until he does, though, he checks in here. His dual SS/3B eligibility is certainly a plus.

As for his teammate McLain, he is an exciting young player as well. In only 89 games, he hit 16 homers. There are a few red flags, though. His BAbip is absolutely unsustainable and his SO% is high, although nearly as high as De La Cruz’. McLain has dual 3b/SS eligibility as well. Either of these young players would make a fine selection on draft day.

Even if 30 isn’t ancient, Swanson is the old main of this tier. He didn’t have a great season in 2023, but still hit 22 homers. He played in 160 and 162 games the two previous seasons, so expect him to be in the lineup a lot more than 147 games. Doing so should return him to the 25-27 homer, 90 RBI range. If a SS is needed later in the draft, Swanson is a comfortable selection.

Tier Five

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Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres, age 31, 155 games, .285-19-58, 170 hits, 83 runs, 110K, 56BB, .350/.440/.790, 120 OPS+, .319 BAbip, .154 ISO, 16.5 SO%, 8.4 BB%, 19 SB, 2 CS, FantasyPros: 14, ESPN: 8

J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners, age 29, 145 games, .266-19-65, 142 hits, 94 runs, 125K, 99BB, .380/.438/.818, 131 OPS+, .314 BAbip, .172 ISO, 19.6 SO%, 14.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 26, ESPN: 11.

Edit: When I put together my tiers, I had C.J. Abrams placed here. After publishing the article, it was pointed out that he was missing entirely. After hitting 18 homers and stealing 47 bases, Abrams clearly belongs. The only thing holding him back is the team he plays for. That’s all that stops me from ranking him higher.

Comment: By now, everyone is aware that the Padres are moving Bogaerts to 2B to make SS available to Kim. Even as that’s the case, he is still eligible at SS. Once he plays in enough games to qualify at 2B, his value will assuredly rise. See my Fantasy Baseball Second-Base Tiers edition for more information.

Playing in relative shadow in Seattle, Crawford is a name that you don’t hear very often. Even so, Crawford put together the best season of his career last season. Check out the walks, which led the league. He gets on base at a nice clip and he scores runs. He seems to have been around forever, but is only 29. In my estimation, he is a real value on FantasyPros, as I see him performing well above his ranking of 26.

Without question, Crawford is a clear example of knowing the platform you are playing on. On ESPN, he isn’t near the value as on FantasyPros. In fact, check out the rankings on both throughout this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition. You will see quite a disparity. Knowing the rankings and draft accordingly can’t be overemphasised on this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition.

Shortstop Values

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Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles, age 20, minor league stats: 125 games, .323-12-75, 154 hits, 113 runs, 118K, 101BB, .442/.499/.944, FantasyPros: 22, ESPN: 16

Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals, age 28, 137 games, .248-13-47, 119 hits, 69 runs, 84K, 35BB, .307/.399/.706, 24 SB, 9 CS, FantasyPros: 19, ESPN: 16

Comment: I wrote back on January 15th that Holiday is baseball’s top prospect this season. I see no reason to shy away from that now. When the announcement comes that he has made Baltimore’s roster, be sure to get him on the roster. Drafting him is the highest recommendation on this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition. The fact that he is eligible at SS and 2B only increases his value.

Speaking of versatile, Edman matches that description better than just about anyone else in the game. He enters the season qualified at 2B and OF as well as SS. He is a mid to late round draft pick that just makes sense, especially in leagues that have middle and corner infielder slots in the lineup.

Shortstops to be Cautious of

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Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates, age 25, 9 games, .250-1-4, 2022: 87 games, .233-17-54, 77 hits, 45 runs, 126K, 28BB, .294/.450/.744, 108 OPS+, .317 BAbip, .218 ISO, 34.9 SO%, 7.8 BB%, FantasyPros: 12, ESPN: 22

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees, age 22, 159 games, .209-21-60, 113 hits, 62 runs, 167K, 52BB, .283/.383/.666, 81 OPS+, .259 BAbip, .174 ISO, 27.8 SO%, 8.7 BB%, 24 SB, 5 CS, FantasyPros 16, ESPN 23

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins, age 29, 135 games, .230-18-65, 152 hits, 70 runs, 131K, 59BB, .312/.399/.711, 94 OPS+, .272 BAbip, .169 ISO, 22.6 SO%, 10.2 BB%, FantasyPros 24, ESPN 17

Comment: Truly, many were looking forward to what Cruz could do a year ago. Unfortunately, he fractured his left ankle early in the season and wound up playing in only seven games. He should be completely healthy in 2024. However, before putting a lot of eggs in his basket, check to see how he looks at the plate in the spring. Oneil’s SO% was through the roof in 2022 and must be improved.

His 22 ranking on ESPN places him as a potential value, but FantasyPros has him too high. He’d have to completely reach his ceiling to justify that high a selection. Of course, this is not to say don’t draft him. Just do your due diligence and know what you are getting when calling his name on draft day.

Undoubtedly, Volpe had a rocky first season. His BA and OBP were far too low for him to generate any kind of impactful offense. Obviously, he has speed if he can just get on base to utilize it. He is in a great offense, true. However, he will have to improve with the bat or he will hit at the bottom of the order. If that happens, his fantasy contribution will be minimal. The judgment here is that Volpe makes for a risky play on this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition,

When discussing Correa, first you must be aware of the fact that he hasn’t appeared in more than 139 games the past two seasons. His home run totals have come down each season since 2021. At the same time, his SO totals have risen each year. Frankly, that is a bad combination. Honestly, I would rather have a SS with more upside than picking Correa if at all possible.

Shortstop Fallers

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Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers, age 28, 149 games, .217-24-80, 120 hits, 73 runs, 165K, 71BB, .310/.407/.717, 95 OPS+, .259 BAbip, .190 ISO, 25.9 SO%, 11.1 BB%, FantasyPros: 18, ESPN 15

Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, age 26, 150 games, .263-10-52, 152 hits, 82 runs, 129K, 43BB, .324/.381/.705, 95 OPS+, .323 BAbip, .118 ISO, 20.4 SO%, 6.8 BB%, FantasyPros: 23, ESPN 24

Comment: Frankly, Adames has become one of the biggest teases in fantasy baseball. Ever since he hit .285 in 99 Milwaukee games in 2021, he has hit .238 and .217 in the two seasons since. His OBP has been horrible as well: .298 and .310. Obviously, he has power, but his SO% is too high, especially in points leagues. He is ranked in the middle of the pack by both FantasyPros and ESPN. In my estimation, there are better values out there. I will pass on Adames this season.

Lastly, we come to Pena. He had a good first season and was great in the playoffs. Last year, he took a big step back with only 10 homers in 150 games. His BAbip was higher, but that didn’t help the rest of his stats. He stole 13 bases, but was caught nine times. Clearly, that isn’t going to cut it. Even as a player that can be had later in the draft, I recommend finding a better SS value than Pena.

The Last Word

Thank you for joining me for this Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Tiers edition! Debate and discussion are always encouraged when it comes to my fantasy articles. Do you agree or disagree? Have another first baseman or two in mind? Let’s talk about it.

The Sports Stove Fantasy Baseball Show will be live every Sunday at 8 pm Eastern from here to the end of the fantasy season, at the least. Don’t miss out! In our last episode, we discussed our catchers tiers, risers and players to be cautious of.

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