With the 2023 MLB season less than a week away, fantasy baseball draft season is a full go. If you haven’t drafted yet, you will soon. It’s crunch time now. And with such a large sample size of drafts, we finally have real and accurate draft data. Fantasy baseball ADPs go a long way toward indicating which players we may or may not be able to grab.

A key focus of mine is always on value, especially in the middle and late rounds of the draft. So I decided to go through the FantasyPros and ESPN ADPs and highlight all the players I felt were being “slept on”. Guys that I felt were near-guarantees to outperform their current markets. I found it shocking how much great value there was after the first 100 picks. So from there, I decided to write about three of those players, specifically three that I think are locks to outperform their current ADP. Enjoy, and let me know in the comments who your own personal picks are!

Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels

ADP: 145 (ESPN), 122 (FantasyPros)

Taylor Ward was a fairly trendy pick this off-season as a value selection. But surprisingly, we haven’t seen the hype fully caught up in the ADP department. Ward had played in four previous MLB seasons but finally had a breakthrough last year en route to an everyday job. In 564 plate appearances, Ward had a .281/.360/.473 line, with 23 HR, 65 RBI, and 73 runs. He also had a .833 OPS and a 135 OPS+, finishing 20th and 21st in those categories, respectively (!).

As most fans probably know by now, Taylor Ward lit up the statcast department. This is what put him on notice for a lot of fantasy baseball players, and it’s hard to disagree with the logic. The former first-round pick cracked the 80th and even 90th percentile in more than his fair share of categories. Most impressive in my eyes was the sheer quality of contact that Ward made, all while maintaining a .281 average. It’s hard to even say what I like the most here. Is it the insane 12.4 percent barrel rate? Maybe the chase rate that was eight percent below league average? Perhaps his .361 xWOBA that falls only one point shy of his incredible .362 wOBA?

At any rate, there’s a lot to like here for the data-driven fantasy baseball manager. I’d also like to highlight that Ward performed average or above average against every pitch type, displaying very few weaknesses. He hits the ball hard, makes consistent quality contact, and doesn’t chase much, among other positives. He even plays for a well above-average offense, one that he should hit toward the top of the lineup. Ward also has somewhat of a pedigree, despite being a bit of a late bloomer. He was a first-round pick and hit quite well in his minor league career (.299/.401/.467). What’s not to like?

Well, if you’re looking for me to talk you out of drafting Taylor Ward, you’re obviously in the wrong place. I do have some very slight concerns though. Ward, in both the minors and majors, has had his share of injuries. Adductor strain, groin strain, hamstring strain, etc. These aren’t major injuries, fortunately. But short IL stints are fairly common for Ward, and history has shown us that he’ll probably have a few in a given season. Again though, these aren’t major injuries, so owners don’t need to worry. This isn’t a Byron Buxton-type situation. Just make sure to have a bench option ready to step in.

Assuming Ward is available after the first 100 picks, I love this selection. Ward checks every box, and aside from a few small injuries, concerns are low. He appears fully healthy heading into 2023 and has a level of attainability to his extremely high upside that we don’t see too often after the top 100-110 picks. I fully expected his ADP to creep up near 100, but he continues to be slept on, just enough to make him a rather easy player to target. Perhaps it’s the lack of steals? Either way, Taylor Ward should give you great quality when he plays. But if he can stay healthy for an entire season, top-30-hitter value is in the cards. With less than a week until the season starts, I expect his ADP to hold. Grab him now, and appreciate it later.

Ty France, 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 163 (ESPN), 166 (FantasyPros)

Seeing Ty France still around in the 160s really surprised me. There won’t be many All-Stars with a career 122 OPS+, entering their primes, at this part of the draft. France put together a nice season in 2022. He hit for a .274/.338/.436 line last year, with 20 HRs, 83 RBI, 65 runs scored, and a 125 OPS+ through 613 plate appearances. France was red-hot for the first half of the season, with a .846 OPS that eventually fell to .685 in the second half. It was definitely a tale of two seasons for France, but his full-season body of work speaks for itself and shows tremendous potential.

France always hit well in the minors, showing both plus power and contact-making ability while managing to keep strikeouts at a minimum. He has elite bat-to-ball skills and a large contact zone (much like the player I’ll be talking about next), that allow him to put the ball in play at a very high level. His low 15.4 percent K-rate sits in the 87th percentile while his low whiff rate sits in the 82nd percentile. On top of that, France continues to trend up in the power department, starting to showcase more pop to all fields, which many expect to translate into near-30 HR potential.

The big thing here is going to be whether or not France can play as he did in the first half of 2022. Sustaining that level of production will be key to him outperforming his ADP, and will likely mean that he provided top-75 overall player value. But even with just a slight improvement from his 2022 season, France would return value at his current ADP. Do I think he’ll take that next step forward? His career trajectory certainly suggests that he will. France has only been a starter for the better part of two seasons now and has adjusted rather quickly.

On top of that, France suffered an injury in June of last season that sent him to the 10-day IL. While his grade-two flexor strain didn’t seem like a huge deal, he admitted that he spent the entire second half of the season working to get it right. France has provided such a nice floor over the last two seasons that potential buyers can afford to take the risk on his second-half woes being explained by injury. France also doesn’t have a particular weakness. He can make contact in all parts of the zone, and he doesn’t have a deficiency against any particular pitch type. I don’t anticipate pitchers finding any holes to exploit. It’s just going to be about staying healthy and taking the next step in both consistency and power production.

If France can get up near 30 HRs, all while continuing to make great contact and hit in the .280 range, then his value is undeniable. He’ll have an unquestioned everyday role for what should be a nice offense, all while hitting in the top three of the batting order. RBIs can get up near 100, and runs should stay solid. Whether it’s the positive trajectory of a talented hitter entering his prime or the idea of France playing a full season at full strength. There are many reasons to believe. With an ADP in the 160s and a high floor, there doesn’t appear to be a plethora of risk associated with gambling on France reaching his full potential. And in points leagues, I would suggest drafting him much closer to 100 overall than 160.

Jose Miranda, 1B/3B/DH, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 168 (ESPN), 161 (FantasyPros)

A second-round pick in 2016 known for his elite contact-making ability, Jose Miranda turned heads in 2021 with a tremendous season split between AA and AAA. His absurd .344/.401/.572 slash line and 30 home runs landed him on the back end of several top-100 prospect lists. Miranda got the call in 2022 and his highlights include a .268/.325/.426 line, 15 home runs, and 116 OPS+ across 125 MLB games and 483 plate appearances.

For those who haven’t watched; Miranda has a sweet swing with great bat speed, great bat control, and a large contact zone. You won’t be getting stolen bases with Miranda. And I don’t think drawing walks will be a huge part of his game for those in OBP leagues. But Miranda can flat-out hit, and for those in points leagues with strikeout point-subtractions, Miranda has generally been great at avoiding strikeouts. He makes a ton of contact and is elite at putting the ball in play. He even has a solid baseline of power. And he hits the ball hard; having 15 HRs in limited time last year, with great pull-side pop. The biggest question with Miranda is his power ceiling though, and whether or not he can showcase all-fields, 25-30 HR power.

So why am I so sure he’ll outperform his ADP? Miranda is primed for success. He now has nearly a full season under his belt, and he was highly successful in that season. As a true rookie. He’s going to be an everyday guy, batting in the top four of what is usually an above-average MLB offense. Extrapolating his stats last season into an average full-season’s worth (~600 PA), here is what we get: .268/.325/.426 with 18 HR, 80 RBI, and 54 Runs. He also had a .751 OPS and 116 OPS+. Those numbers, while good, will not outperform an ADP in the 160s alone. Rather, they present us with a fantastic baseline for Miranda to take the next step and subsequently outperform that ADP. Making the jump from good to great is difficult for young hitters and takes time. But Miranda’s successful first MLB season puts him well within striking distance.

It was also extremely impressive to see Miranda finish above average in so many advanced statistical categories. His average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, K-rate, and x-stats (BA, SLG, wOBA), were all firmly above league average. The EV and hard-hit numbers specifically tell us that his elite contact-making ability manifested itself into some quality contact. This is going to be the key. Miranda has bat-to-ball skills for days. But can he make consistent hard, quality contact, specifically in a way that will lead to XBH and HR production?

At this point in a fantasy draft, with 160 players off the board, there just aren’t going to be a ton of options that provide both floor and ceiling. Miranda has a real floor; with his production from last season, his everyday role, and his prime batting order position. But he also has a fantastic ceiling. Not many rookies can put up a 116 OPS+ in a 125-game sample size (in addition to the other tremendous numbers I’ve outlined). Miranda didn’t show a true weakness. He showed that he’s one or two steps away from being a fixture. If you don’t have a preferred player on your draft board when ~160 rolls around, Miranda is your guy. I expect him to turn in top-125 value, with the upside for an even better finish.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as draft season continues. I’ll have more pre-draft content and spring analysis coming. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at three more players I’m excited to follow this spring. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!