Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Trades Analysis

With Tuesday’s trade deadline behind us, speculation on where players will land is no longer needed. We know every destination. We can focus on how the trades will affect fantasy rosters coming down the stretch and into the postseason. With some of the biggest names involved, not much analysis is needed. However, there were a few under the radar moves that can greatly affect manager’s rosters going forward. With this fantasy baseball trades analysis, we will look at both scenarios so that everyone can maximize the impact those trades will cause to their teams.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Kansas City to NY Yankees

One of the first trades made, this one has the potential to really affect both real and fantasy baseball. The player involved here is Andrew Benintendi. He was traded from Kansas City to the New York Yankees. Already involved in his first All-Star season, Benintendi has left his struggles far behind in Boston. At the present moment, he is seventh in the majors in batting, tenth in OBP and 13th in hits.

However, his calling card, especially in fantasy, is that he has just 55 strikeouts in 411 plate appearances. To be sure, just call Benintendi the anti-Gallo. He won’t cause negative fantasy points because he strikes out two or three times a game. Benintendi will get on base for the Yankees in front of their big bats. He will score plenty of runs. He currently ranks fourth on New York roster with 217 ESPN fantasy points.

It is truly amazing that Benintendi was able to accomplish such a feat playing for the 27th ranked offense in Kansas City. There is no worries there anymore and his fantasy value will shoot through the moon down the stretch and into the fantasy playoffs.

Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinatti Reds to Seattle Mariners

The most coveted pitcher on the market, Luis Castillo was somewhat surprisingly not traded to a big market team. Instead, Seattle swooped him and picked him up. The move improves what was already a strong Mariners’ rotation, which ranked fourth in the American League in ERA when the trade was made. Best of all, however, is the fact Castillo leaves behind one of the worst pitching parks in the country. Further, he is now on one of the hotter teams and should receive much more offensive support.

Despite just a 4-4 win-lost record, Castillo’s pitching stats are at the very top in the majors. His 2.86 ERA was top 10 in the National League at the time of the trade if he had enough innings to qualify. Additionally, he had 90 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched and a 1.071 WHIP. Best of all, Castillo threw seven innings in each of last four starts for the Reds, giving up six earned.

Going further back in time, Castill pitched into the sixth inning or later in 10 of his last 12 starts. His win total doesn’t reflect on how well he has pitched this season. Blame that on the terrible team he just left behind. This fantasy baseball trades analysis firmly states Castillo and his managers will benefit the most down the stretch because of this move.

David Peralta, OF, Arizona to Tampa Bay Rays

Definitely flying under the radar, Tampa’s trade for David Peralta could pay major dividends to the manager that has him on the roster. Peralta goes from a team hopelessly out of the playoff picture to one that is right in the middle of it. Certainly, his stats don’t look overwhelming, but his 12 homers and 41 RBIs will fit in nicely with a team with the eighth fewest in both categories in the majors. Simply stated, the Rays needed hitting in a major way and Peralta can help in that area.

In fact, the 12 home runs are more than Peralta hit in all of 2021 (8). He is well on his way to the most he has had in a season since 2018 (30). Best of all, the good times could be just ahead for Peralta. His .291 BAbip is the lowest he has ever had in his major league career. A little better luck should be headed his way. If so, those fortunate enough to have him on their roster will benefit greatly. Peralta clearly has earned on a spot on this fantasy baseball trades analysis edition.

Josh Hader Traded for Taylor Rogers and Others

Frankly, there is lots to unpack with this trade. Honestly, the fantasy impact managers will feel with Josh Hader getting traded to San Diego will be minimal. True, he has had his struggles of late, raising his season ERA to a very uncharacteristic 4.24. However, that seems to be more related to him having much on his mind due to a new baby. Hader’s WHIP is still an excellent 1.118 and he leads the league in saves with 29. With the family issues seemingly behind him, expect Hader to return to the dominant closer we know. His fantasy stats will return to what they were early on this season.

On the other hand, the fantasy prospects for Taylor Rogers aren’t so cheerful. Even though he is second in the league to Hader with 28 saves, he, too, has struggled mightily this season, especially lately. His BB9 is the highest and his SO9 the lowest he has had in a single season since 2018.

More than anything else, though, is the fact Rogers may not even be the closer for the Brewers down the stretch. That honor is likely to go to setup man supreme Devin Williams. If you are in a league that doesn’t use holds as a counting stat, expect Roger’s value to take a huge drop.

Jose Quintana, traded from Pittsburgh to St. Louis

Surprisingly, the player that may see the biggest jump in their fantasy value belongs to none other than José Quintana. Going from the perineal downtrodden Pirates to a class organization like the Cardinals has a tenancy to accomplish just such a feat. It should shock no one that Quintana has a losing record.

After all, Pittsburgh sits 22 games below .500 in last place in the N.L. Central. Quite the contrast, the Cardinals are 54-48 and in second in the very same division. Despite of the bottomless hole of a team he was pitching for, Quintana fashioned an excellent 3.50 ERA. He is adept at keeping the ball in the park, as his 0.6 HR9 is the lowest of his career. In addition, his 3.23 FIP is his lowest in a full season since 2015.

Quintana looks every bit the pitcher that he was when he won 13 games three times. He has pitched into the sixth inning in both of his last two starts and has done so nine times this season. Fortunately for him and his fantasy managers, Quintana now pitches for a team in the thick of a pennant race. At this point, there aren’t many that have him on their roster, despite the fact he has 223 fantasy points. His last two efforts have netted 26 and 15 fantasy points.

Without question, Quintana’s 16.9 percent ownership rate will change, and will in a blink of an eye. Don’t get left behind as Quintana finds himself highly recommended for pickup on this fantasy baseball trades analysis edition.

Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Traded from Washington to San Diego

Finally, the San Diego Padres were able to pull off a major trade. After failing miserably to get Max Scherzer and Trea Turner last season to the rival Dodgers, the Padres not only landed Juan Soto this year, but Josh Bell as well. It doesn’t take much, if any, analysis to figure out that Soto’s numbers are about to spike big time.

With no one but Bell to protect him in Washington’s lineup, Soto hit .246-20-45 with 91 walks in 101 games. The Padres now have perhaps the best hitting lineup in the game. Mark Soto down for scoring the most fantasy points of any position player over the next two months.

As for Bell, he was hitting .301-14-57 with a .384 OBP and a .877 OPS. His .384 OBP is 11th, and his 113 hits is 12th in the majors. Best of all, Bell only has 61 strikeouts in 437 plate appearances. That he provided this type of production with only Soto behind him is one of the amazing stories of the 2022 season. Needless to say, Bell now has lineup protection from here to eternity in San Diego. Bell has been one of the great values in fantasy baseball and that value is only going to go sky high down the stretch.

Fantasy Trades News and Notes

Of all the players traded at the deadline, none face a bigger fantasy fall off than Raisel Iglesias. He was the closer for the Angels, which he will not do in Atlanta. That job is capably manned by Kenley Jansen. Iglesias will most likely fill the setup role. In leagues that don’t value holds, his value tumbles completely over a cliff. Looking for a roster replacement is highly recommended on this fantasy baseball trades analysis edition.

Quite the contrast to Iglesias, Tyler Mahle saw his fantasy prospects brighten considerably Tuesday. Like Castillo, Mahle leaves behind a bad pitcher’s park and a bad club for a team fighting to make the playoffs. His 4.40 ERA isn’t exciting, but he pitched into the sixth inning or later in five of his last six starts. Expect Mahle to double his five-win total the next two months.

Unlike Soto and Bell, don’t look for the managers of Brandon Drury to see rainbows and unicorns down the stretch. Even though Drury is having an outstanding season, most likely he will now platoon in San Diego. The Padres can’t play all of these guys at once. Those that do own Drury are probably wishing they had traded him before Tuesday.

The Final Word

Thank you for joining me for this fantasy baseball trades analysis edition! As always, I welcome any and all suggestions, comments and input from my readers. Have players to add to the list? Let’s discuss! Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Check out the latest Belly Up Fantasy Live Baseball Show available here. Be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports & Picks for the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and all the latest sports news!