Michael Penix Fantasy Forecast 
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Offseason Headline
This offseason the Broncos seemed like they were going to go after a big-time quarterback to replace the inefficient Drew Lock. They ended up trading for Teddy Bridgewater and drafting their future at the running back position. Overall, the Broncos are still a team with a lot of talent that needs someone to throw the ball accurately. Maybe the Broncos are holding out for an MVP-like QB to become available, but they’re playing a risky game with their team’s potential. 2021 may be the season that the Broncos regret not going all-in on a Hall of Fame QB.
Quarterbacks
Drew Lock
Drew Lock is getting another chance in 2021 to be the quarterback for the Denver Broncos. Last year, Lock had 16 TDs and 15 INTs, with 2,933 yards. The Broncos offense is like a nice sports car; they just need the driver to not crash the car. Lock was not that driver in 2020; accuracy was the biggest hamper to Lock’s game. Last year, 69.8 percent of his passes were deemed catchable, ranking 42nd in the league. That means 11 other non-starting quarterbacks were throwing more accurate balls than Lock.
Playerprofiler.com described danger as “any play that a QB lacked awareness or took an unnecessary risk that could have resulted in a turnover”. Drew Lock ranked second in the NFL with 44 danger plays in 2020. One thing to look out for is the offensive line, which ranked 25th last year. The Broncos saw Garett Bolles become one of the better left tackles in 2020. Hopefully, some improvements along the line will help with Lock’s time in the pocket. Overall, Lock now has competition with Teddy Bridgewater coming into town and will have to shore up his bad throws to remain the starting quarterback in Denver. Verdict: Fade
Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater was the opposite of Drew Lock last year, he was incredibly efficient, but lacked TDs. Last year Bridgewater supported two 1000-yard receivers (DJ Moore and Robby Anderson) and nearly supported three 100 target receivers (Curtis Samuel had 97 targets). Bridgewater’s totals for 2020 were 3711 yards, 15 TDs, and 11 INTs. Bridgewater was an accurate thrower of the ball last year, receiving a 7.9 rating on Player profiler. Putting into perspective how different Bridgewater and Lock were last season.
(stats provided by Playerprofiler.com)
| 2020 Metric | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock |
| Catchable pass rate | 78.9% | 69.8 % |
| Pressured Completion % | 36 | 32.6 |
| Deep Ball Completion % | 43.6 (55 attempts) | 27.0 (63 attempts) |
| Danger Plays | 25 | 44 |
| Interceptable Passes | 22 | 27 |
| Accuracy Rating | 7.9 | 6.7 |
I comprised this table to show you the drastic differences in judgment between the two quarterbacks. Training camp in Denver is going to be interesting. Will the Broncos go with the gunslinger in Lock or the game manager in Bridgewater? I’m assuming that at some point both will get a chance to start. I’m just not willing to put any type of serious fantasy capital into either one. If I had to choose I’d go Bridgewater as my stream/bench QB. Verdict: Stash
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon
Melvin Gordon is fresh off one of his best years of his career, tallying 986 yards, 9 TDs on 215 carries. In 2020 Gordon was instrumental to the Broncos offense as indicative of his 2020 dominator rating of 25.6 percent. For those that don’t know, the dominator rating is a percentage of total offensive yards and touchdowns that Gordon accounted for in 2020. This made him one of the best guys to own last year, but that was last year.
This year the Broncos have brought in North Carolina running back Javonte Williams to be the future of the franchise. Gordon is on the last year of his contract and looks to be on his way out. Another thing to talk about is Melvin Gordon’s DUI and reckless driving charge from last year. While dismissed in court, suspension from the NFL commissioner may still be in the future. Ideally, Gordon won’t be suspended and will be playing in 2021. That being said, if the Broncos are bad this year I can see them moving on from Gordon before their bye week. Another thing to consider is Gordon is 28 and may be transitioning to the final stages of his career. Overall I’m not high on Gordon this year, I’m passing on him unless he is there at a reasonable price. Verdict: Redraft/Fade
Javonte Williams
The Broncos selected Javonte Williams out of North Carolina with the third pick in the second round. Williams is the future in Denver after posting an outstanding junior season with 1,445 scrimmage yards (1,140 rushing and 305 receiving) and 22 total TDs. He balled out last season and boasts excellent qualities for a “bell cow” back. Williams’ great vision, stout size, balance, and ability to break the first tackle reminds me of the legendary Frank Gore.
Javonte Williams was also an excellent pass-catching back at North Carolina, his career totals were 50 receptions, 539 yards, and 4 TDs. Williams does everything Melvin Gordon does, but he’s much younger and more durable. It just seems like a matter of time in this offense till we see Javonte Williams as the starter. Verdict: Dynasty/Redraft
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton is coming back from an ACL injury in 2020. Prior to going down Sutton was a Pro Bowler in 2019, with 72 receptions,1112 yards, and 6 TDs. Sutton is familiar with the Broncos’ instability at quarterback. In 2019, Sutton caught passes from Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock. He still had a Pro Bowl year, so bringing in Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Drew Lock shouldn’t keep fantasy owners from drafting Sutton. If anything, it might encourage you to sign him since Bridgewater threw 55 deep balls last year with a completion percentage of 43.6. This lends itself to benefit Sutton as a deep target.
Courtland Sutton will have to deal with multiple quarterbacks again this year. He’ll also have to compete with possession receiver, Jerry Jeudy, for touches this year. Sutton will have great weeks and blah weeks, but the one thing I think will happen is that each game they will try to get Sutton deep targets. If they can throw him 2 or 3 passes over 20 yards then owners of Sutton will be very happy this season. Verdict: Dynasty/Redraft
Jerry Jeudy
My message to people is don’t sleep on Jerry Jeudy. This guy is a weapon, and his route running is absolutely insane. Last year, Jeudy had a difficult rookie year between the drops (10), which ranked third in the league. The catchable target rate from his QBs was 62.8 percent, to put that into perspective 71 of 113 balls thrown to Jeudy were catchable. Jeudy’s catch rate was 46 percent, but when we get rid of the 42 uncatchable balls, it becomes 73 percent. This just shows you how a bad quarterback can bring down a good receiver.
In 2020, Jeudy had 52 receptions, 856 yards, 3 TDs and had the seventh-highest yards per reception (16.5). He is a wide receiver that if given 100 catchable targets would turn in a 1,000-yard season easily. Jeudy is one of the most exciting guys to grab in startup drafts because his talent is so apparent and can’t be denied. If you’re planning on passing on Jeudy, don’t be mad when he’s expensive next year. My prediction for Jeudy is a strong season with 70 recs, 1100, and 6 TDs. Verdict: Dynasty/Redraft
KJ Hamler
KJ Hamler is a breakout player in the waiting. Why do I say this? Easy, all you have to do is watch Hamler’s tape to see that he’s the “go-to-guy” on third downs and the last play of the game. Hamler is a “gadget guy” who could be heavily utilized this upcoming season. Imagine if you could get Curtis Samuel at WR87. That’s where Hamler is ranked currently, and he’s going to be a steal at that rank. Last year, Hamler put up 30 recs, 381 yards, and 3 TDs on 56 targets in his rookie year. In 2021, Hamler has a strong chance to double his numbers and become a productive slot receiver. Verdict: Stash
Tim Patrick
Tim Patrick was at the right place at the time in 2020. He took over Courtland Sutton’s role on the offense as the deep threat for the Broncos. Last year, Patrick caught 51 passes for 742 yards and 6 TDs. Patrick’s dominator score last year was 27.5 percent, a crazy good score for a backup receiver. Where Patrick showed his value last year was in the red zone catching nine of 10 targets for 55 yards and 6 TDs. Patrick had efficient numbers in the most important area of the field.
Courtland Sutton is coming back in 2020, which will signal the end of Tim Patrick’s production. Tim Patrick will be a valuable player to pick up if one of the Broncos’ starting receivers does go down. Unfortunately until then, it’s smart to let Patrick go to the waiver wire in most drafts. Verdict: Fade
Tight Ends
Noah Fant
Noah Fant is one of the least talked about tight ends going into the 2021 season. Fant should be ranked higher than TE11, but due to a lack of a good QB, Fant should be a steal this year. Last year Fant posted 62 catches, 673 yards, and 3 TDs in 14 games. Fant has lacked in the TD department in his two seasons in Denver only scoring six career TDs. It’s crazy that the Broncos have this beast of a tight end, who averages seven yards after the catch for his career. Yet they still can’t seem to feed him enough in the red zone. Last year Fant was targeted 12 times where it matters most. Just looking at Fant dominate defenders physically on tape makes this even more of a head-scratcher.
Until the Broncos get their quarterback situation right we may never see Noah Fant achieve his potential. That being said, I think Fant possesses the fantasy value to back up a TE2 level of production with the ability to shine as a TE1. Overall, Fant is going to be a gift to whoever snags him at his current ADP or worse. Verdict: Dynasty/Fade
Albert Okwuegbunam
Albert Okwuegbunam is the backup tight end in Denver but has the potential to become more. Standing at 6’5″ and weighing 258 lbs, Okwuegbunam was a red zone monster at the University of Missouri catching 23 TDs during his three years in college. Last year Okwuegbunam saw limited action, putting up 11 receptions, 121 yards, and a TD in his four games played. Combining his good hands with his frame should make him a threat in the NFL going forward. Having Fant on the team makes Albert O a non-factor. But if Fant goes down then Okwuegbunam will be an excellent addition to your fantasy team. Verdict: Stash
Conclusion
The Denver Broncos are looking like a strong team for skill players this year, but without an adequate quarterback their values drop. A lot of these guys would be excellent dynasty players. The moment this team gets a quarterback that can feed this team that’s when the Broncos players will be valuable.
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