By Scott Engel, The Game Day

Overvalued or Undervalued?

We have flipped the calendar to July, and that means fantasy football players are seriously starting to prep for upcoming drafts. Some are even drafting early, especially in best ball formats. 

On social media, the hot takes from fantasy football experts are coming across timelines fast and furiously. As usual, we always cover our fantasy football tips and advice but below are some “hot button” players frequently discussed, with our takes on where they are selected in early drafts. Average Draft Position data is via fantasypros.com, in Points Per Reception scoring formats. 

Analysis provided by Fantasy Sports Writers Association inaugural Hall of Famer Scott Engel. 

Polarizing Fantasy Football Picks: Takes From The Game Day

Christian McCaffrey (Overall ADP of 2.8)

In his last two healthy seasons, McCaffrey finished in the top two overall in PPR scoring. However, that was in 2018 and 2019. So while he is still worth a first-round pick, we are inclined to recommend taking Austin Ekeler and the three top wide receivers off the board ahead of McCaffrey. 

Derrick Henry (5.2)

He is coming off a significant injury and four seasons with large workloads. Nevertheless, Henry has shown no apparent signs to believe he will suddenly fall off, and all indications are that he will be healthy for the upcoming season. So we endorse taking Henry with a mid or late first-round pick. 

Over 10

Tyreek Hill (19.2)

Many fantasy analysts are fading Hill in the range of his current ADP, but bumping him down to WR8 seems fair. Hill is still immensely talented and capable of helping his QB. Therefore, Hill is not being over-drafted. 

Javonte Williams (19.2)

He shares the same ADP with Hill, but drafting Williams as an RB1 carries significant risk. While the Denver offense will undoubtedly be improved with Russell Wilson at the controls, Williams is still going to cede a significant amount of work to Melvin Gordon, which means he should not be the 11^th running back taken on average. 

Leonard Fournette (21.8)

Fournette has his share of non-believers, many of whom see Rachaad White cutting into his workload. However, he will still be the primary ball carrier for Tampa Bay even if the reception totals drop a bit, so Fournette is not too much of a gamble as the RB13 off the board. 

Over 30

Ezekiel Elliott (31.8)

There can be some value when taking Elliott at RB16. The Cowboys’ offense will still score many points this year, and he will still be their leading runner and TD option near the goal line. Tony Pollard will continue to be a presence, but Elliott has a lot to prove this season and can fit comfortably into lineups as an RB2. If Elliott falls later than 32^nd in your draft, target him as a second starting running back. Elliott is no longer a fantasy superstar, but he may not be quite done. 

Cam Akers (32.6)

Akers came back faster than most expected from an Achilles injury, and he could start the season slowly as he continues to navigate the road back to full health. However, Akers could be ready for a strong surge by midseason, so you may have to exercise patience with him as an RB2 pick. 

Antonio Gibson (39.4)

He could be part of a committee this year with a rookie taking away a lot of inside and goal-line work and J.D. McKissic working as a frequent receiver out of the backfield for Washington. Those passing on him in the top 40 overall are doing it right, as Gibson will not be dependable in fantasy this year. 

Terry McLaurin (43.4)

Some think he is overrated as WR16; others see high-end WR2 potential. McLaurin does not score enough, which may not change much with Carson Wentz. So, we have no issues with pivoting away from Gibson in a tight decision at his current ADP. 

Over 50

Marquise Brown (59.4)

Brown is not quite a top 25 fantasy WR, in our view. He has never been a consistent pass-catcher and will be overmatched as a No. 1 WR for the Cardinals while DeAndre Hopkins is out. Then, Brown goes to being a second option for Arizona. He will be a good fantasy WR3 but is being overdrafted as a WR2.

Miles Sanders (65.6)

By now, we all know that Sanders is an RB with durability concerns who cannot get in the end zone. Damien Harris, at 66.0, is a better pick. He can score twice as many times as Sanders will. Harris does not catch passes, but Sanders has not reached the 30-reception mark in the last two seasons. 

Gabriel Davis (75.6)

He has been a source of some hot debate on social media among fantasy analysts. As a big-play type of wide receiver set for a more prominent role on a pass-first offense, Davis should outperform his current ADP that has him as the 31^st WR off the board. 

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