Fantasy football draft busts can wreck a season before it even begins. In previous episodes, we looked at the first round of a fantasy football draft and potential value plays. Still, for every first-round stud or a sleeper who strikes it big, there are players that will drag down a fantasy squad. These players should be avoided at their current average draft position, especially in PPR.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

There is no question that Derrick Henry was one of the stars of the NFL and fantasy worlds last season. All he did was lead the league in rushing with 1,540 yards and he scored 15 touchdowns. He also almost single-handedly was responsible for the Titans surprising playoff run. But, this isn’t about last season, it is about the year to come. The problems start when you look at how many times he carried the football a year ago.

He lead the league with 303 carries in the regular season and had another 83 in the playoffs. That is a lot of touches and a lot of punishment. While he is big at 6-3 and 247 pounds, that has to wear on a person. Additionally, he only caught 18 passes on the year and has only 57 for his entire four-year career. That is a full season of catches for such backs as Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and others. If you are in a standard league, draft away on a player such as Henry. But in PPR, other more all-around backs make much more sense for the first or second-round draft capital needed to select him.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Last season was in the ditch for James Conner, as was the case for many of Pittsburgh’s offensive starters. He only appeared in 10 games and rushed for just 464 yards and four touchdowns. He has had only one above-average season in three years. The running back position usually does not age well around their fourth season in the league. Those are all negatives. In addition, Conner will have to fend off Benny Snell, entering his second season, to be the starter.

Snell’s numbers of 426 rushing yards and two TDs compare very favorably with Conner’s. Unless Conner really dazzles in the preseason, it looks like a rotation system will rule the day for the Steelers. At the very least, Snell will steal carries from Conner. Does that sound like a third-round pick to you? Me, neither. Conner has all the markings of one of this season’s fantasy football draft busts.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

On the surface, the stats from last season for Cooper Kupp look good- 94-1,161-10. A deeper look shows a disturbing trend, though. 41 of those receptions came in the first five games. There were six games during the season in which he was targeted only 27 times total. It sure seemed that QB Jared Goff got much more comfortable with fellow wideout Robert Woods. Goff targeted Woods 79 times in the last seven games.

If those numbers continue in the preseason, It is Woods who will be on the fast track. At the same time, Kupp will be on a slow boat to wherever boats are traveling to right now with the virus shutdown. Quite simply, there’s no chance that Kupp is worth a third-round fantasy draft pick. You heard it here first.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

It all came crashing down on Adam Thielen last season. He only played in 10 games and his numbers, as would be expected, took a severe hit. It wasn’t only from the missed games. In 2018, Thielen was used quite often as the slot receiver and it not only worked, it was a grand slam. He caught 113 passes for 1,373 yards and 9 touchdowns. For reasons that no one comprehends, former offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski moved Thielen out of the slot last season. It didn’t work.

In the 10 games he played, Thielen caught just 30 passes for 418 yards and 6 TDs. A lot of people drafted him last season and regretted it. But what of this season? Of course Stefanski is gone, replaced by Gary Kubiak. The word at this time is that rookie WR Justin Jefferson will man the slot, not Thielen. If that is the case, it doesn’t matter that Stefon Diggs is in Buffalo. Watch the Vikings in the preseason. If Jefferson is indeed in the slot, Thielen is not worth the third-round choice that would be needed to draft him. That is a hard pass for me and should be for you, too. He will be one of the fantasy football draft busts.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

The numbers from Austin Hooper last year look pretty decent. He caught 75 passes for 787 yards and 6 TDs. Those kinds of stats from a fantasy tight end you can live with. Just don’t look for a repeat performance this season. Hooper left the Atlanta Falcons for the Cleveland Browns. If you are a regular follower of these articles you have no undoubtedly read that the Falcons threw the ball A LOT last season. The Browns you ask? Not so much. The difference is staggering- 684 passes for Atlanta, 539 for Cleveland.

A deeper look at the 2019 team stats reveals that the Browns had seven games in which they didn’t pass for over 200 yards. They only passed for over 300 yards twice all year. Those totals will almost certainly rise this season, but there are also a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland. Think of players like Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry. Hooper will also have to contend with David Njoku at the tight end position. He was injured much of last season, but caught 56 passes as a rookie. Add it all together and there just isn’t any reason to take a chance on Hooper.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

There is no question in days gone by that Zach Ertz has been a dominant tight end. Those days may be coming to an end. The slide began last season as his numbers were down across the board. Catches were down 116 to 88, yards down 1,163 to 916, and TDs down 8 to 6. All that despite the fact that unlike many of his Eagle teammates, he escaped injury and played in 15 games.

You have to believe that the injury bug won’t bite Philadelphia as hard next year, but there is also the matter of Dallas Goedert and his place on the roster. The Eagles like to run two TE sets a lot, but both players will eat into the other’s stats. Ertz is being targeted as the number three tight end in many drafts and that is just too rich for the expected reward. If you can’t get George Kittle or Travis Kelce, wait a bit to take a TE. Trust me, you will be thanking me as Ertz will be one of the fantasy football draft busts.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens and Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Trust me when I say that neither Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes will be a bust in the traditional sense. Both are primed for outstanding seasons. It is just that to get one of these studs onto your fantasy team, you will have to use a very high pick, maybe even a first-rounder, to get them. In my humble opinion, that is too high a price. Jackson was the second-highest PPR scorer a year ago with 415.68. Impressive until you realize that Christian McCaffrey actually outscored him at 471.2. Mahomes was 14th. Of course, Mahomes was injured, but that really isn’t the point here.

Fellow quarterback Dak Prescott was fourth, Russell Wilson fifth and Deshaun Watson sixth. Those guys should be available in the fifth round and are a much better bargain. Even Jameis Winston was 10th. And remember Jackson was a fantasy grand slam as he was picked in the 11th round on average last year. That is what needs to happen every fantasy season. Find the guy that will pay off big without having to use all of that draft capital to get him. The other position players are the ones that will lead a team to the championship. And that is the bottom line, isn’t it?

Thank you for joining me with this look into the fantasy football draft busts. Please feel free to make a comment. I welcome your suggestions on players to add. These selections will be updated as the season gets closer, I receive more input and more information becomes available. Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea, and make sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for all the latest NFL and sports news!