Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Fantasy Football Prep: QB Tiers Pt. 1

The members of your redraft league are most likely starting to plan what dates everyone is available to draft. But the real question is are you planning to have the best draft out of everyone in your league? What steps are you taking to prepare for “The Big Day”? One of the simplest things you can do, which plays a vital role, is to place each player in a specific tier per position. Here, we’re going to examine the top three QB Tiers.

The ‘S’ Tier (Studs!)

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Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes will be the first QB taken off the board in most redraft leagues. That is because he was the QB1 last year and has never finished worse than the QB7 in his career (not including 2017).

Josh Allen

Generally, the drafting of Mahomes triggers the drafting of Josh Allen. Recently, drafting an S-tier quarterback in the early rounds of a redraft league has been quite a popular strategy. Rightfully so, as with S-tier quarterbacks you are almost guaranteed 20-24 points per week.

Jalen Hurts

Hurts has improved every year in fantasy football. He made the jump from “good” to “great” by improving from QB9 in 2021 to QB3 in 2022. He improved in just about every category and should continue to remain dominant thanks to the weapons he has around him.

The ‘A’ Tier

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Joe Burrow

Burrow finds himself in the A-tier not because we don’t think he’s a solid QB for your fantasy team, but because there is a slight drop-off in Points Per Game. He averaged 21 points last year, but had six weeks where he was the QB13 or worse. For reference, Allen had two (not including the Damar Hamlin game), Hurts had one (not including Week 18 where most fantasy leagues were completed), and Mahomes had zero (again, not including Week 18) such games.

Lamar Jackson

Lamar certainly has the potential to have S-tier weeks, but it’s the lack of consistency that’s of concern. After his amazing start to the season, which included two 40-point games in the first three weeks, he only topped 20 points twice. Then he missed the rest of the season, which was the second year in a row he hasn’t been available for your run in the fantasy playoffs. If Lamar continues to improve in the passing game and stays healthy, he is a candidate to enter the S-tier thanks to his deadly rushing attack.

The ‘B’ Tier

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Justin Fields

The above picture shows why Fields earns a spot on the QB Tiers list: his insane rushing ability. Fields ran for eight touchdowns and 1143 yards in 2022. If he can just master the art of throwing the ball, he will certainly climb the charts. I expect him to make a similar jump as Hurts did between 2021 and 2022. In D.J. Moore, Fields finally has an established wide receiver to throw to. He’s also playing behind an improved offensive line.

Justin Herbert

At this time last year, Herbert was probably in the A-tier. However, last year showed us he is more than capable of putting up some disappointing weeks. Check out Bobby Amendola, co-host of The Eye Test podcast, breaking down why Herbert finds himself lower on the QB tier list for the 2023 redraft season.

Trevor Lawrence

“T-Law” made an impressive jump between his rookie and sophomore seasons. He practically doubled the amount of touchdowns thrown and cut the amount of interceptions in half. He still had some inconsistencies in regards to fantasy scoring. However, due to the addition of Calvin Ridley in the wide receiver room, I believe the B-tier is the proper tier for Lawrence in 2023. I’ll go a step further and put myself on the record here: Trevor Lawrence will be a top-five fantasy quarterback in your redraft league this year.

Deshaun Watson

Watson has had a full year to practice with the Browns and find his rhythm with Amari Cooper. Because of this, I believe he will put up B-tier numbers. Something in the range of 16-20 points per game should suffice, with the ability to have some high-ceiling games.

Aaron Rodgers

After one of the worst seasons in his career, Aaron Rodgers deserves some type of relegation in the QB tiers list. However, I believe him moving on from Green Bay and heading over to the New York Jets calls for a rebound year. We can probably blame the down year in 2022 on the absence of Davante Adams or the fact that it was very clear Rodgers didn’t want to be a Packer anymore. Now he has Garrett Wilson to throw to, Breece Hall to hand-off to, and a defense that will help get the ball back into Rodgers’ hands. I expect the Jets to run a lot this year, though, which will inevitably limit the amount of high-scoring games Rodgers will have.

To be continued…

These are your top 10 quarterbacks for your 2023 redraft league. For more draft prep, you can check out our QB Tiers episode of The Eye Test, and Paul Orlando’s RB Tiers article. For QB Tiers C and D, read Part Two of my QB Tiers.

About the author

Jon is the host of The Eye Test: A Fantasy Football Podcast and in 2023 became a writer for Belly Up Fantasy Sports. Jon loves to cover both dynasty and redraft leagues and the various conversations that come along with them. A reminder to find more great fantasy content at Belly Up Fantasy Sports and follow us on Twitter @BellyUpFantasy.