As we head into week 10, most teams have finished up at least eight games and thus finished half of their NFL seasons. For a special handful of players, this weird and turbulent season is their one and only rookie season. For a pair of special players, the Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year award awaits.

Ok, yes… this is a relatively fictional award. There is no real trophy (until Belly Up Fantasy Sports makes one), there is no real prize, and the players don’t really keep track of this. But we do.

Rookies are a tricky play in fantasy. Coming into their rookie season, many guys get over or under hyped based on their college performance. Even the most discerning observer will miss a small school stud in a perfect situation. And the power five, NCAA award-nominated fantasy bust? Feels like we get those every year.

But by mid-season? The Rookie of the Year candidates are starting on a team in every league. So who are they this year? Are there a bundle of top wideouts? Is some young running back running things?

AFC Mid-Season Rookie of the Year

Dark Horse: James Robinson; RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

In eight games played, James Robinson has scored seven touchdowns and a two-point conversion. As expected with a rookie, Robinson’s workload has increased each week and he reached 25 carries in the Jags narrow loss to the Texans last week. While the Jags may be tanking to get him more help, Robinson’s the clear belle of the ball in Jacksonville. As they navigate the second half of the season, the only issue that could arise for Robinson is if the team decides to shelf him. Runningbacks and hard tackles are almost like pitchers and a pitch count in baseball… and if the Jaguars decide to throw in the towel on this year, they may pull him down the stretch to ensure a shot at Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.

Also Ran: Chase Claypool; WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Claypool was on everyone’s minds in week five when he rattled off a historic four-touchdown performance against the Philadelphia defense. While Claypool only has three other touchdowns to his name this year, he is consistently stretching the field for Big Ben Rothlisberger and the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. Further, the Steelers have a Fantasy friendly schedule remaining. They see Cincinnati twice, Jacksonville, Washington, and Indianapolis all this season. While rookie’s with multiple “hat-tricks” (or better) are rare, anticipate Claypool continuing to find the end zone as Pittsburgh pushes for home field throughout the NFL playoffs.

Winner:

Yes, we’re going to distinguish between quarterbacks and non-quarterbacks. In many fantasy leagues, quarterbacks carry less importance than other positions because the “gap” between the first and 16th best option is less severe (seven to nine points). But the gap between the top and average starting running back? Wideout? Tight end? That is a vast difference (13-15 points). And? In most leagues, you need multiple running backs and wide receivers. So the “average” ones go more quickly. So who takes the cake for a non-quarterback?

Non-QB Division: Clyde Edwards-Helaire; RB, Kansas City Chiefs

In some ways, this feels like cheating. Any fast running back with any kind of hands in the same backfield as Patrick Mahomes, under the tutelage of Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy, was going to have a real shot at this title. Then, when it’s that running back? Yes, Edwards-Helaire has just reached the end zone three times in nine games… but he’s still averaging 12.6 carries a game in one of the league’s most pass-happy offenses. 

Further, as the season continues, anticipate more and more runs being called. The same way a team will grind out the clock in the second half, Edwards-Helaire will be grinding out opponents as the Chiefs prepare to defend their Super Bowl. Especially in weeks 15-17, Fantasy football playoff time, look for the Chiefs to use Edwards-Helaire to exploit the New Orleans, Atlanta, and LAC defenses.

QB Division: Joe Burrow; QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Well, would you look at that? The number one pick, Heisman trophy winner, and MVP of the College Football Championship is in contention for Rookie of the Year at the mid-season mark?Is it really that simple?

With Joe Burrow, it really might. He’s on track for 4,500 yards passing, over 20 touchdowns, and (if he continues to play smarter than the week before) may stay under ten interceptions. Burrow is statistically on target 76% of the time, and that indicates the more he plays in the Brian Callahan offense the better those raw numbers will get. He can make the throws, and the more time and practice he gets with the reads the more success he will have.

NFC Mid-Season Rookie of the Year

Dark Horse: D’Andre Swift; RB, Detroit Lions

Coming into the season, the Lions were sending mixed messages about who they were going to trust in their backfield. Drafting Swift implied a changing of the guard, but signing Adrian Peterson signaled the guard may still be older. Swift has seen a workload increase over the year and has five touchdowns in eight games thus far. The Lions also play a fairly easy second half of the schedule and may need to run the ball late in those games to secure wins… a lesson they did not learn with big leads earlier this season. Look for Swift to continue to make a growing impact the rest of the season, and play his way into this conversation.

Also Ran: Justin Jefferson; WR, Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson has had two of the biggest Fantasy games by a rookie this year. In Week 3 and Week 6, Jefferson was over 160 yards with at least a touchdown against the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons. While Jefferson doesn’t get to play either again, he clearly has demonstrated that he and Kirk Cousins can combine to exploit bad defenses… And the Vikings play four more games against bottom-tier defenses this season. Jefferson may have what appears to be an average statline now, but after playing Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Detroit, Jefferson should have finished a monster campaign for the Purple People Eaters.

Winner

Ok, listen… There aren’t many Rookie quarterbacks starting in the NFC. While there are three strong quarterback candidates in the AFC (Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa), the young NFC quarterbacks are in their second or third year. But the way a quarterback is valued in fantasy football is different than any other position, very much in an inverse way to their importance in an actual football game. So, we still differentiate, even if the competition is really in the other division.

Non-QB Division: CeeDee Lamb; WR, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb may only have three touchdowns to his name currently, but the Dallas Cowboys have begun using Lamb in new and innovative ways as the year has gone on. While Mike McCarthy isn’t known for creativity, Lamb continues to line up in new spots each week. This shows the team is trying to find new ways to get him the ball and has been successful with even the likes of Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert. With the return of Andy Dalton eminent, anticipate that Lamb’s role will grow even more than the five catches he’s getting per game, now. Games against Minnesota, Washington, a beat-up San Francisco, Philly, and a potential play for the number three overall pick in Week 17 against the Giants all are chances for him to explode as he did in Week 5.

CeeDee and the NFC crown is in a much more precarious position than his AFC counter part. As a wideout, Lamb depends a lot on the line to allow time to pass and the quarterback to get him the ball. Both the line and quarterback positions in Dallas have been riddled with injuries. While Lamb is talented enough to take the crown, don’t be surprised if he is in a competitive race for the NFC ROY as the year wraps up.

QB Division: Jalen Hurts; QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Again, there aren’t many competitors here… But Jalen Hurts is one of the few rookie quarterbacks in the NFC getting any snaps. He is a dual-threat quarterback that has his own run package and sees red zone snaps. Further, he plays directly behind a quarterback with consistent injury history, and at any point could take the reins at a moment’s notice. In college, Hurts proved to be a strong offensive weapon and a consistent winner at both Alabama and Oklahoma. That should translate to a helpful pro, much in the same way Taysom Hill is.

Additionally, playing for Doug Pederson implies offensive creativity that may benefit Hurts’ skill set whenever he gets his chance. Whether it’s special packages or an emergency situation, Hurts has a chance to make an impact that no other rookie quarterback in the NFC does… (because there really aren’t many, but that’s beside the point)

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