We have one of the most intriguing Final Fours that we have seen in quite some time. The battle of the blue bloods, as we have a rematch from the Final Four from 2018 between Kansas and Villanova. Then in the nightcap, we have one final matchup between conference rivals North Carolina and Duke with Coach K as their head coach. Both games are going to be must-watch games and the atmosphere is going to be amazing down in New Orleans. With that being said here is my betting guide for the Final Four.

Kansas (-4) vs Villanova

This has been a long time coming for the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas is looking to exact some revenge after losing to Villanova in the Final Four back in 2018. However, the two schools have met twice since that Final Four matchup and the Wildcats have come away victorious each time. Let’s go over the keys to the game for both sides.

Kansas

The Jayhawks have kind of found a lucky route on their way to the Final Four. Kansas hasn’t had a tough matchup so far in the NCAA Tournament and have not looked great at times. Also, they have had their big names struggle in the tournament so far as well. Ochai Agbaji averaged just under 19 points per game during the regular season, but in the tournament, he is averaging 12.2 points per game. Agbaji is going to need to be a factor here in this Final Four matchup if Kansas wants to win.

Kansas is getting contributions finally from Remy Martin. Martin has two 20+ point games in the tournament this season and might be Kansas’ best offensive player in the tournament right now. The frontcourt of McCormack and Jalen Wilson will also need to bring their best in this Final Four matchup. The guards should try and create for Wilson and McCormack because I think they will have a big matchup advantage against Villanova if they utilize them.

Villanova

The Wildcats are the underdogs in this matchup on paper, but this team has been resilient the entire season. Villanova will need two-time reigning Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie to do what he does best and that is show up for the big moment. Gillespie’s shooting numbers haven’t been great in the tournament so far, but this is the type of game where he shines.

One big thing to take into account is that the Wildcats will be without their second-leading scorer Justin Moore. Moore averaged just under 15 points per game in the regular season, but he was picking up the slack with Gillespie’s struggles in the tournament. Someone will have to step up and take those minutes, but it isn’t going to be easy replacing the talent that Justin Moore has.

Betting Trends and Picks

The betting trends for this matchup are telling you to take Villanova with the points. In Villanova’s last 27 NCAA Tournament games, they are 21-6 against the spread. Kansas on the other hand has struggled to cover the spread in this tournament. They are 2-2 against the spread in this tournament, but without a huge Miami collapse like we saw in the second half of their Elite Eight matchup the Jayhawks could easily be 1-3 against the spread. Also, the under is a huge trend for this matchup as well. In the last 41 games for the Jayhawks as a favorite in the tournament, the under is 28-13. For Villanova in their last nine neutral-site games, the under is 8-1.

My pick in this game is Villanova +4 and under 133. Even without Justin Moore, Villanova is going to play Kansas tough and Jay Wright will continue to be a throne in Bill Self’s thigh. Both defenses are going to play well and this game comfortably goes under.

UNC vs Duke (-4.5)

For the final time, we will see Coach K go up against North Carolina. This is a story that could easily write itself. Does Coach K overcome his rival one final time to get a shot at another National Championship before he retires? Does UNC send Coach K home for good? So many questions and only forty minutes of playing time that we have to watch. Let’s talk about the keys for both sides.

Duke

Duke has been a team that people did not know if they were good or not the entire season. Whether or not you believe that they are good or not, they are at the Final Four with a chance to win yet another National Championship. This team is led by Paolo Banchero who has been really good in his freshman campaign for the Blue Devils. Banchero in the tournament is averaging 18.5 points per game to go along with seven rebounds per game.

Another big factor for the Blue Devils in the tournament has been the play of Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams. Those two have been the spark plug that the Blue Devils have needed at times. Mark Williams is averaging 14.5 points per game to go along with 8.7 rebounds per game. Jeremy Roach is averaging 12.7 points per game as well in the NCAA tournament. With Williams and Roach playing at the level that they are, Duke is going to be a tough out.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels have been one of the biggest surprises of the tournament. North Carolina got hot at the right time for first-year coach Hubert Davis. Caleb Love, Brady Manek, and company have been fantastic in the tournament. Love is averaging 18 points per game, Manek is averaging 21.5 points per game, Armando Bacot is averaging 16.5 points per game to go along with 15.7 rebounds per game. That trio has been a big reason why the Tar Heels are where they are right now.

Hubert Davis has this team clicking on all cylinders. The three-headed monster of Love, Manek and Bacot will need to bring what they have been bringing in this gigantic clash. When North Carolina beat Duke at Duke for Coach K’s last game at Cameron Indoor, they had four players that scored twenty plus points. North Carolina needs to have that type of game in order to retire Coach K without a National Championship.

Betting Trends and Picks

The betting trends in this one lean towards the Tar Heels. UNC is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as an underdog. Duke is 3-7 against the spread in their last ten NCAA Tournament games. UNC is also 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games against Duke as well.

My pick is UNC +4.5 solely based on the fact that I think this will be a close game the entire way. I think Duke could win this game, but UNC for sure stays within the number.

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