Baseball is back! I’m here with my debut article for Belly Up Fantasy Sports and first baseman is the talk of the day! Personally, I don’t like ranking players in numeric orders. Tiers are the way to go if you ask me and that is how I will be breaking down first basemen today!

Tier One

Does it get lonely at the top? In a tier all by himself, I have Cody Bellinger. He has to be the clear cut top first baseman in fantasy, right? Belli went nuts in 2019! He mashed 47 home runs and scored 121 runs while tacking on 115 RBIs. That came with a 1.035 OPS and a nice little 15 stolen bases. Bellinger has the potential to be the number one overall fantasy baseball player in 2020. His start to the season in 2019 was absurd. 

March/April- .431, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 132 PA

May- .319, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 18 R, 109 PA

Never hit over .280 in a month again

June- .272, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 17 R, 110 PA

July- .262, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R, 102 PA

August- .235, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 18 R, 113 PA

Sep/Oct- .280, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 17 R, 95 PA

Belli was in the top one percent of the league in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA during 2019. Sure, his start definitely helped him but that is what he could do over this 60 game season. At his best, there may not be a better player in baseball. His numbers at their worst still provide elite production. Draft Belli all day, every day.

Tier Two

Once again I have a tier with just one player. Freddie Freeman is the next best thing at first base. It doesn’t get more consistent than Freddie Freeman who tested positive for COVID-19. His home run numbers have been a little sporadic over the years and he lacks in the stolen base department. You know Freddie Freeman will hit close to .300 and the line up around him is filthy. He drives in runners with the best in the game. Barring special circumstances, Freeman will be a top first baseman come to the end of the 2020 season.

Tier Three

Finally, a tier with multiple players. In tier three I have Pete Alonso, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson, and Jose Abreu.

Polar bear Pete had one of the better rookie seasons in baseball history last year. 53 bombs from a rookie? Big meat Pete said no big deal. He scored 103 runs and added 120 RBIs. He slashed .260/.358/.583 during his rookie campaign. Against the fastball, he hit .295 with 34 home runs. His 66 barrels were second in baseball. His 40 percent ground ball rate for a player we consider a power-hitter is pretty high. Could we see a sophomore slump for Pete in 2020? Regression seems inevitable, but he has the potential to lead the first base position in home runs.

DJ LeMahieu may not be a traditional first baseman, but check your league settings because DJ’s multi-position eligibility is one of my favorite assets he offers in fantasy. He plays in a fantastic lineup, stadium, and division for this 60 game stretch in 2020. He answered the question of whether he was a product of Coors Field last season. Now you ask if he is a product of Yankee Stadium? Don’t let this man prove you wrong again. He is one of the better hitters in baseball.

Much like Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo is as consistent as they come at first base. But with Rizzo, you can get him much later in drafts. 25-30 home runs is a guarantee for Rizzo and the man doesn’t strikeout. He finished 2019 off strong with an OPS over .900 in August and September. When I draft Rizzo, I have a very good understanding of what I’ll be getting. You can’t say that about many players. 

In a 60 game season, I would not be surprised to see Matt Olson as the AL home run leader. Matt Olson led all first baseman with a hard-hit percentage of 50.3 percent. His hard-hit rate is in the 98th percentile compared to all MLB hitters. Playing in the west, Olson will face a ton of lefties. Particularly when he plays those 20 NL West games. Against southpaws, he hit .223 compared to .288 vs righties. And when he does face righties this year, he only has to face Grienke and Verlander. Just something to note.

Tier Four

In tier four, I have Goldy, Muncy, and Carlos Santana. If you’re playing in a points league, Santana bumps up a tier. First I want to begin with the slow-starting Goldy. Goldschmidt’s first year with the Cardinals was beyond average for him. 34 bombs while tacking on 97 runs and 97 RBI being average just shows you the hitter he is. St. Louis does offer one of the toughest park factors in terms of home runs. He no longer is a boost in the stolen base category either. With that being said, Goldy is a solid value if he falls far enough down in drafts. 

Muncy is another player with multi-position eligibility. He’s had back to back seasons with 35 home runs. In 2018, he hit .263 and followed that up with a .251 last year. His second half saw some struggles as he hit .225 with a .260 BABIP. He did see a slight increase in ground ball rate in 2019 too. He was number 61 in baseball in terms of hard-hit rate, 76th percentile. His multi-position eligibility is his best asset to me. 

Carlos Santana is one of the safest picks you can make at first base. His OBP of .397 was one of the best in all of baseball. He is one of the only players in baseball who can draw more walks than strikeouts throughout a season. His hard-hit rate was in the 84th percentile, which was right behind Cody Bellinger. He was top five in average exit velocity among first baseman with at least 100 batted ball events. He’s my first baseman in every points league I play in!

Tier Five

Tier five consists of Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins, and Edwin Encarnacion. Josh Bell had one of the best starts among all first basemen in 2019. The question you have to ask is will you get the first half Bell or second half Bell? The Pirates lost Starling Marte to the Diamondbacks and I’m not expecting much in terms of counting stats due to that lineup. I tend to stay away from Josh Bell, but the upside is certainly there.

Rhys Hoskins is in a fantastic lineup, but for me, he is just too streaky of a hitter. In one aspect I think in a 60 game season he could hit more bombs than Harper. In the other aspect, I think he could hit .220 and struggle. He is in the fourth percentile for xBA among MLB hitters. I’d rather just stay away.

Edwin Encarnacion is a player I love at the first base position going into 2020. There are few options as good as Encarnacion in terms of getting power late. He’s hit 32 or more home runs in every season since 2012. In that span, he drove in at least 100 runs six times. Those other two seasons saw 86 and 98 RBIs. Definitely, nothing to cry over. He’s now playing in the Windy City with one of the more polarizing, young lineups in the game of baseball. Across 162 games, I’d put money on a 30 homer, 90 RBI season from Edwin. Encarnacion’s 8.2 Brls/PA% was 32nd in baseball last year. That’s better than JD Martinez, Fernando Tatis, and Matt Chapman. Power doesn’t come in a more consistent form than Edwin Encarnacion. 

Tier Six

Tier six has a bunch of solid ballplayers. I grouped Eric Hosmer, Joc Pederson, CJ Cron, Yuli Gurriel, Joey Votto, Christian Walker, Luke Voit, and Howie Kendrick in this tier. My personal favorite in the group is CJ Cron. No way he doesn’t play every day on that terrible Tigers roster. His barrel rate has improved in each of the last four seasons. In 2018 his barrel rate was top ten percent in the league. Last season, his 15.0 barrel percentage was top five percent in all of baseball. 

Joc and Voit are on ball clubs loaded with talent. Playing time could be a concern. NL DH could certainly take some of those worries away for Joc, but the Dodgers are notorious for mixing and matching. I expect a platoon for Joc. The NL DH should greatly benefit Christian Walker though. He should be the man at first base while Jake Lamb and Kevin Cron (CJ’s little bro) platoon the DH. Christian Walker hit 29 home runs in 2019 and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 94th percentile. 

Hosmer is as boring as it gets, but he does have 18 or more home runs in each season since 2015. I’ve been staying away from Astro hitters except for Bregman. Yuli power production last season looks like an outlier.

Did I save the best for last? Howie Kendrick hit the biggest home run in Nationals history a year ago. In 370 plate appearances, Kendrick hit .344 with 17 home runs while driving in 62 runners. Tack on a whopping .966 OPS and the new NL DH rule and you’re looking at one of the most undervalued players in the draft. His xBA last season was in the 100th percentile. Kendrick was top two percent in the league in terms of xSLG and xwOBA. He was in the 94th percentile when it came to hard-hit rate. I’m drafting Kendrick everywhere.

Honorable Mentions

• Daniel Vogelbach
•  Justin Smoak
•  Jesus Aguilar
• Mitch Moreland
• Dominic Smith

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