We have arrived! That’s right, the fantasy playoffs in most leagues begin this week. Let me be the first to congratulate all of the managers that have reached this stage. It is truly an accomplishment! Of course, the job isn’t finished, it is just beginning. Those in the postseason will be looking for every advantage over their opponents. To that end, this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits is prepared to help make that a reality.

Truly, it must be known by now by those that have travelled with me through these many weeks, but it bears repeating. All position rankings are taken from ESPN. Likewise, those reading my work know that if there are ever any questions or comments regarding my articles, feel free to share them with me. I will be more than happy to respond.

Finally, as befits the beginning of the fantasy playoffs, all of the bye weeks are complete. There will be no further need to be concerned about them the rest of the way. There are, however, two Monday night games to be aware of: Chicago at Minnesota and Atlanta at Las Vegas. With all of that complete, let us proceed.

Fantasy First Round Fantasy Starts

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders Monday

When it comes to being up and down in the same season, I doubt any match Kirk Cousins. Just look at the last two weeks. After throwing four (not a misprint) interceptions against Chargers in week 13, he was picked off two more times by Minnesota Sunday. Over the past four games, Cousins doesn’t have a single touchdown pass to go along with eight interceptions.

Certainly, that is enough bad news for one article. Why the recommendation this week? The Falcons journey to play Vegas. All season long, the Raiders have been the prescription to cure whatever ails opposing quarterbacks, ranking a lowly 25th. Case in point: Baker Mayfield just threw for 295 yards and two scores against them.

It is hard to imagine Cousins continuing to be as bad as he’s been, especially against this competition. If in doubt, be assured that he is worthy a spot in starting lineups for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. 

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Monday

After his last two opponents, Monday’s challenger should feel like a breeze to Caleb Williams. Two weeks ago, Williams faced off against the seventh ranked QB defense in the Detroit Lions. This past week, he went toe to toe with the 49ers, ranked eighth entering the game, on the road. The breather comes this week, as Williams will take on the Vikings Monday night, ranked a lowly 19th.

Against those two excellent defenses, Williams threw for five touchdowns and not a single interception. The Bears lost both of those games, but outcomes have nothing to do with fantasy, except for the defenses. No one can blame Williams for most of Chicago’s losses the past several weeks, as he has one interception in his last 10 games.

If you are one of those managers that have been riding Williams despite the final scores, this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition says there is no reason to back away from him now.

Running Backs

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

In last week’s edition, Rico Dowdle was a sit. Unfortunately for me, that prediction didn’t pan out at all. Rushing for over 130 yards made him a fantasy superstar on Monday night. However, we have to leave that game in the rear view mirror and look ahead.

When doing so, we see the sun is shining brightly of Dowdle and those with him on their roster. Facing the Panthers in 2024 has that effect on running backs throughout the universe. Dowdle is in the catbird seat. 

There is no reason to overthink this. Carolina has the worst defense against running backs in all of fantasy. Set Dowdle in your starting lineup this weekend and concentrate on other positions.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

As has been pointed out over and over again in these articles, the opponent is crucial in putting together a list like this. Obviously, the player in question has to have some talent as well. That is the case with Rhamondre Stevenson.

Before the bye, Stevenson put together and impressive game, finishing with 73 yards on 18 carries. Doing some quick math, that comes to 4.1 YPR. Further, he caught three passes for another 21 yards.

This time around, New England travels to face Arizona. In case you missed it, Zach Charbonnet set a career high in rushing yards (with 138) taking on their hated division rival Cardinals. Of course, there is no guarantee that the same fortune will find Stevenson, but this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition thinks it is a worthwhile gamble.

Wide Receivers

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

After facing the Chargers defense in his last game, Xavier Worthy draws the Browns in week 15. While Cleveland has a strong defense in other areas, they are vulnerable to those players that catch the ball, particularly wide outs (26th).

Against Los Angeles, Worthy brought in five of six targets for 41 yards. He has caught five passes in each of his last two games. Fellow receiver DeAndre Hopkins has a touchdown catch in two of his last three games. The Browns figure to pay close attention to him, which should open some holes for Worthy. If injuries have left gaps in the roster, starting Worthy will solve the issue for you.

Noah Brown, Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

When last seen in week 13, Noah Brown suffered a rib injury and exited the game against Tennessee. Brown wound up with three catches of four targets for 27 yards before leaving. However, in the game prior, he caught six of ten targets for 71 yards against the Cowboys. Fortunately for him and his fantasy managers, Brown had a bye week to rest up.  

As long as he plays against the Saints, this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition says to make sure that he is in the lineup. New Orleans has had a terrible year on defense, including wide receivers, where they rank in the pits at 28th. Health should be on Brown’s side in this one. If cleared, start him.  

Tight End Start

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Like so many others here, Tucker Kraft has made appearances, both in starting and sitting roles, in previous articles. This week, he is safely in the starting conversation. Coming out of last Thursday’s game against the Lions, Kraft caught three of five targets for 41 yards and a touchdown.

Tucker has now reached the end zone in two of his last three games. Except for the score, obviously, there wasn’t a lot to get excited about until you consider that Detroit had the number one defense against tight ends in all of fantasy entering the game.

On Sunday, he draws a Seattle defense that is playing much better than earlier in the season. Even so, their play against TEs leaves much to be desired, ranking in the bottom of the league (21st).

The Packers and Seahawks are both in the playoff chase, and this should be a very intense game. If in a bind at the position, give plenty of consideration in getting Tucker into lineups this weekend.  

Fantasy Round One Sits

Quarterbacks 

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Of all of the players in the NFL, few, if any, have had a more interesting season than Anthony Richardson. He suffered an injury in week four and missed two games. Upon his return, his poor play resulted in a demotion to the bench. After sitting for two contests, Richardson was again the starter in week 11. He has remained in the lineup since.

Unfortunately for him, Richardson’s task this week is a tall one, as he and the Colts travel to Denver. The Broncos have been one of the top defenses all season, the game against Cleveland notwithstanding.

Even after that game, Denver is in the top ten of defenses overall. Playing on the road in Denver is never ideal. With no teams on bye, there has to be a better option than Richardson. Find him and start him.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers

As pointed out above, Baker Mayfield threw for two touchdowns and 295 yards against the Raiders this past weekend. However, he also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. In his last two games, Mayfield has four interceptions. He has five games in 2024 with two or more picks. Not good, obviously.

That leads to week 15. Unfortunately for Mayfield and his fantasy managers, Tampa has to travel all the way across the country to take on the Chargers.

Los Angeles knows how to defend, ranking in the top ten against QBs, RBs and TEs (WRs 16th). Certainly, that is not a good combination during the fantasy playoffs. Like White below, the smart play in the first round is to shuttle Mayfield to the bench for this game.  

Running Backs

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles 

When it comes to the hierarchy of the running back position in Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren ranks second chair to Najee Harris. As such, going up against a top defense like the Eagles, this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition has no choice to move Warren to the bench.

Without question, if you look at his 5.2 YPR average against the Browns, that conclusion may be hard to understand. First, let me point out that Warren only had nine carries in the game. Further, he had just two catches.

Second, as stated earlier, Harris also occupies the backfield in the Steeler offense. He isn’t going anywhere, having rushed the ball 16 or more times in seven straight games. More importantly, Harris has touchdown in his last two games.  

Lastly, the Eagles are a tough matchup for any running back, ranking sixth in fantasy. Simply stated, it isn’t wise to utilize a player in a platoon situation in a starting lineup when the postseason is on the line. My advise: keep that in mind and lock Warren into a reserve role Sunday afternoon.  

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers

Without doubt, having just one Buccaneer to discuss won’t satisfy this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition. That being the case, Rachaad White finds himself included here, despite the fact that he had a very solid game against the Raiders.

White turned his 17 rushes into 90 yards and a touchdown while also scoring through the air. Of course, that all sounds great, and for that game, it was. We have to move on though, with the Chargers now standing in White’s way.

Doubtless, running the football will be much, much more difficult on the road against Los Angeles than it was against Vegas at home. With that front and center, despite any inclinations to do so coming off that last game, firmly plant White on the sideline for this one.  

Wide Receiver Sits

DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Coming out of their bye, it would appear that DeMario Douglas should receive starting consideration. After all, there were been five games this season that he has been targeted seven or more times, most recently in week 12. On the flip side, however, Douglas has received four or fewer targets in five games as well, including his last appearance against Indy.

In the final thoughts of Douglas on this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits article, he should not be considered for a starring role. Arizona is in the top ten against WRs and TEs while ranking 12th against QBs.

Further, the game is on the road. All of which means it could be a long day for the Patriot offense. Recommendation: simply stay away.  

Odell Beckham, Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans 

Perhaps there are managers looking at the high flying numbers in the Miami passing game that they generated against the Jets. If so, some might conclude that Odell Beckham deserves a second or third lookover.

Really, the best advise that I can give is let any thoughts on him pass. While his more celebrated wideout brethren caught 19 of 26 targets for 214 yards, Beckham caught one pass for exactly one yard.

Without doubt, research indicates that Beckham has been ice cold all season. He has just two catches in his last three games and nine total for the year. Add in the fact that the Dolphins are on the road.

Conclusion: taking a chance on Beckham just isn’t worth it, even against a bottom of the barrel defense against receivers like Houston. Ultimately, you don’t want your march in the postseason to end because Beckham was in your starting lineup.

Note: Beckham and the Dolphins parted ways this morning. Now there’s absolutely no reason to have him on a roster, let alone start him.

Tight End Sit

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Bringing up the rear of this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition is none other than Mike Gesicki. On Monday night, Gesicki faced the 12th ranked TE defense in the Cowboys. Dallas did an excellent job in corralling Gesicki, as he wound up with three catches of three targets for a grand total of 24 yards.

Glancing ahead, we see that Cincinnati is again on the road, this time against Tennessee. While the Cowboy TE defense isn’t terrible, it doesn’t compare to the Titans (8th). Even at a position as bare as tight end, there has to be a better option than Gesicki. Go find him.

The Final Word

Thank you for joining me for this First Round Fantasy Starts/Sits edition! Follow me on X (formerly Twitter)  @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Be sure to turn to bellyupsports.com and bellyupfantasysports.com for all the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and the latest sports news!

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