As your draft winds down, you find yourself choosing between quiet bench depth and dart throws. That’s cool; almost all of us do that. It’s a bonafide winning strategy. The ones who execute this strategy best, however, are the ones who find exemplary value in the closing rounds. They find the guys who are most likely to shine. They find the guys who overproduce from that slot, returning a midround or higher value.
This is where your draft is truly won, and when you can look like a genius. And let’s face it; half of the fun of fantasy baseball is proving you’re the smartest guy in the room. Here are five guys that absolutely can make you THAT GUY. (And probably net you some money at season’s end.)Every single one of them has the potential to be one of the late league winners in your draft.

These guys are in no particular order, and all of them have a current consensus ADP of 250 or higher. I still expect all of these guys to be on the general radar for most players, so I’m not going to call them “dart throws” or “fliers”. They ARE likely to be there in the waning rounds of your draft, however.

Brian Anderson (3B/RF-Miami Marlins)

The Marlins are going to be bad, but nowhere near as bad as they were last year. More importantly, though, they’re not going to be good enough to kill Anderson’s playing time. He’s going to get at-bats, and in a modestly improved lineup, this is going to lead to more counting stats. He’s got 25 homer potential, particularly if he continues to adjust his angles to be a more flyball prone player. (And there’s plenty of reason to believe that will be the case.)

His batting average isn’t going to kill you. His defense is more than solid enough to avoid too many “strategic swap out” type moments. He’s compiled two consecutive 3+ WAR seasons. He’s good, and he hasn’t hit his prime yet. While this is probably not Miami’s year, this is definitely the last year that you’re going to get him so late in drafts.

Mike Yastrzemski (LF/RF -Giants)

In addition to possessing one of baseball’s hardest to spell names, he’ll be a shoo-in to start in the Giants’ outfield. This is going to be a bad year for the Giants, and by extension, Giant fans. But it doesn’t have to be a bad year for you if you get the right guys off of their roster. And without a doubt, Mike Yastrzemski is the guy to have.

Just like Anderson, there’s no real danger for playing time. The Giants are in full rebuild mode at this point (or they should be). He’s in his presumed prime years, and so we can probably count on 20-25 homers, though a lot of projections do see some regression from last year’s rather surprising debut. We can probably expect the BABIP goods to level the field a bit, dropping his average closer to .250.

He was a better player in the second half than the first, batting .242 first half – .287 second half. His WOBA was .302 in the first half, .376 in the second. Hard hit? 38.1% first half, 45.7 in the second half. He adjusted to the league. What we saw in the second half is who he is.

And the best part? Because he’s older (not even arbitration-eligible until 2023) he becomes an attractive piece of a trade for high-end prospects if he stays hot. That trade puts him in a home ballpark that’s almost guaranteed to be better than SF. BUT, that same affordability lets the Giants keep him around as a cornerstone during the rebuild. No, they’re not going to rebuild around him. He’s just too old. They could easily bank on his maturity to help bring young guys along in the clubhouse, though. In which case you’re still going to be able to reap the benefits of him this season, and several years to come.

Josh James (SP/RP-Astros)

Josh James‘ role in the Astros rotation may still be up in the air, but even in a bullpen role, he has electric stuff that will not be ignored. He has a four-pitch repertoire, three of which had positive ratings last year, led by his stellar fastball. He has enough of a pitch mix to be a starter. The only question is if the Astros will let him. Judging by how he’s performed this spring, there’s every chance that we’re going to see him make the back end of the rotation. Even if he doesn’t, there’s little doubt that he’s likely the first one up in the case of an injury or lack of success.

He brings a stellar K/9 with him. While there are definitely questions about his control, you just can’t sleep on his pure stuff. All of his peripheral stats were lower than his ERA, indicating that at least some of his results weren’t all on him, either. His SIERA was nearly a run and a half lower. This is a guy ready to explode onto the scene in a big way.

Add in the weirdly defensive attitude of “us against the world” that the Astros seem bound and determined to play with this year, and you have a recipe for a superstar.

Mitch Keller (SP-Pirates)

For a casual fan, it would be easy to dismiss Keller, based on his 2019 statline. 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA? That’s not even worth a look to most people. But to you, me, and people who see beyond those surface stats, Keller is absolutely worth not just a final pick, but a full round or two early. He had a K/9 of 12. Keller tends toward ground ball results. He gave up slightly under league average hard hit %. Where did it go wrong? BABIP. He had a ludicrous BABIP of .457, which led to his equally low 59.6% strand rate.

There’s literally no way that this happens again. He’s the poster child for positive regression. He’s on an abomination of a franchise, so if your league scores W’s, that’s probably not going to be where his value lies. On the other hand, he’s potentially going to lead your team in K’s, with a solid, possibly great ERA and WHIP. Barring injury, there’s no way he goes this late next year. This kid is something special, and he could have a monster year.

James Karinchak (RP-Indians)

If your league scores save plus holds, this is the man to have if you didn’t scoop up Pagan earlier in the draft. He’s the heir apparent to the Indians’ closer position. He had a cup of coffee late last year, and it’s time to get the hype train rolling.

He’s the next Dellin Betances, and he’s armed with off-the-charts stuff. HIS K/9 IN THE MINORS WAS OVER 22. THAT’S RIDICULOUS. Depending on where the Indians are around the trade deadline, if they trade Brad Hand away, he could easily be the closer. But even if he simply dominates the setup position, you’re foolish not to be excited over a guy who literally struck out nearly 60% of all batters he faced across three levels of minor league ball last year.

Add Claase’s injury woes to the mix, and now his lone real competition is gone in the early season. Pick him up now, and look like a genius at playoff time. He is absolutely one of those late league winners in your draft.

That does it for me this week; let me know who you’re picking in the comment section below!

Follow me on Twitter @Viking_Chuck for baseball tweets and occasional video game content.

Want more baseball content? Click here for Kelly Yake’s look on the 2020 closer situation across MLB