Hello again. In my last fantasy article, I gave you five names to fade. (Which apparently was not without its share of criticism.) This time, I’m going to go a bit more positive, with some players I feel are really worth targeting. Today I’ll be taking a look at picks 100-150 to find you, five players, to target in drafts.

I want to emphasize a couple of things: not all of these picks are necessarily going to fall to you at the ADP I have them listed. As spring progresses and players get injured or perform well, their stock is going to rise or fall accordingly. At the time of writing, I’m using their average ADP from CBS, Yahoo, RT Sports, NFBC, and Fantrax.

Additionally, not every one of these guys is going to be the right pick FOR YOU, depending on how your team is constructed, or if there’s been a positional run. Experienced players are already aware of this stuff, but for some newer players, this is absolutely something to keep in mind.

ADP 100-109: Marcel Ozuna

It’s honestly a bit shocking to me that he’s this low. He’s got 30+ home run potential and hits for a decent average, and will get you a handful of steals on top of it. In addition, he’s playing for a much better team, in terms of pure weapons, which can only help his counting stats.

Last year was a bit of a down year for his average, and that’s all BABIP. While we’re not likely to see anything identical to his 37 home run, 124 RBI line from 2017 (which was also BABIP driven), we’re likely to see a 20-30 point bump to his batting average. His hard hit percentage has steadily risen over the past four years, and didn’t take a drastic jump from the juiced ball. This is all very legitimate. He’s in his prime and out of St. Louis. Presuming he stays healthy, we’re going to see a return to form. Reap the benefits by rostering him.

ADP 110-119: Liam Hendriks

Generally, I’m not one to chase saves. With the increasingly mutable bullpen roles, it’s tricky. However, if you’re looking for an impact closer, you could do far worse than Hendriks.

He ticks all of the boxes. Hendriks held batters to a .197 batting average. He had a godlike K/9 of 13.13. Unlike many closers, he has a four-pitch repertoire. Three of the four had positive ratings. He did all of this with a believable BABIP of .311. The closer’s role is really his to lose. Plus, if the A’s are out of contention near the trade deadline, he’s pretty easy to move with one year of arbitration left before free agency. It is likely that no matter where he ends the season, it will be in a high-leverage position.

ADP 120-129: Frankie Montas

Let’s just get the elephant in the room out of the way. Yes, he’s a steroid cheat. In a truly just world, you wouldn’t be penalized for taking a moral stand and avoiding him. But, just like with other steroid cheats like Bartolo Colon, or Miguel Tejada, or Jason Giambi, someone will always give them another shot. Possibly of B-12, wink wink. (Weird how they all played for the A’s isn’t it? But I digress…) Someone in YOUR league is also going to give Montas a shot, and it really ought to be you. Particularly if you’re playing in a money league, there’s no reason to avoid him. He’s rostered and going to be a regular starter.

We should be prepared for mild regression. There was a .76 difference between his xFIP and ERA, but I don’t think it’s going to be disastrous at all. And while I understand that people are going to feel that some of his success was PED-driven, his most effective pitch was his slider, NOT his fastball. His K/9 and ground ball rate (1.73) is due to his breaking stuff. All three of his pitches (he throws a change from time to time) had positive ratings on Fangraphs. He’s a complete pitcher, and complete in ways that cannot be attributed to PED’s.

Everything here tells me that he’s figured it out. Barring a sudden positive test or injury, he’s going to be a real asset. He didn’t have any significant home and road splits, so he wasn’t saved by his home park. He has absolute ace potential, and could reliably be your #2 without question. Getting him in the 11th or 12th round makes him an absolute steal.

ADP 130-139: Danny Santana

Danny Santana is unlikely to ever be a true superstar, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable component of your team. In Yahoo, he’s starting the season as eligible at every position besides catcher and pitcher. That’s elite level flexibility, and it’s going to aid him in getting way more playing time in real life.

2019 saw him finally break the 500AB threshold, and he thrived in the opportunities he was given. I don’t buy fully into the power surge (his hard-hit percent jumped from 35.3 to 45.1). However, a case can be made that some of it is real, due to finally getting regular playing time. It’s worth noting that his HH had been rising every season, even with the limited at-bats he was receiving.

If he gets 600 AB, even with some regression he’s easily a candidate for a 20-20 season. Given his added positional flexibility, the idea of being a semi-regular pinch-runner also gets put into the mix.

If there’s one thing that I’m not crazy about, it’s his K%, which sat at a whopping 29.5%. As far as I’m concerned, that’s too high for a guy without significantly more power. But I’m willing to take that risk for the sake of the upside here.

ADP 140-149: Kyle Schwarber

Every year, someone seems to talk about how this is the year Schwarber is going to break out. This year, it’s my turn. Yes, he has flaws. He has home/road splits that make the Rockies blush. (.283 avg at home, .218 on the road.) Many people focus on his lefty-righty splits. It’s worth noting that he hit LH pitchers at a .314 clip at home. It’s a small sample size (51 AB), but it points to the reality: he’s not significantly worse against lefties. This is a home-road issue more than anything else.

Every year, his K% has gone down. His Hard Hit percent only went up by 1.8%, so the power spike didn’t really help him the way that it clearly helped others. He’s maturing into a better player year over year, and he’s a virtual lock for 600AB’s. It’s easy to count on him for around 30-35 homers and 80-90 runs and RBI in 2020, especially if he keeps progressing the way he has.

So those have been my picks for today. We’ll do five more rounds in the next article!
Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below!

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