I put this article together to give people an idea of the 4 teams that would be the most beneficial to Julio Jones‘s fantasy value. First off, I never thought this day would happen, Julio Jones is on the market and the NFL is going crazy. We got Shannon Sharpe asking Jones on Fox Sports Undisputed, “Do you want to go to the Cowboys or stay in Atlanta?”, which Jones responded “I’m out of there” (talking about Atlanta). Julio Jones has officially become the talk of the town for something off the field. Something I never thought I’d say considering Jones has steered relatively clear of the wide receiver antics that has gotten the best of greats in the past. I’ll never think of Julio as Odell Beckham or Terrell Owens, but this latest insight makes me wonder what Jones brings to his next team.
San Francisco 49ers
Let’s start out by speaking some truth about the 49ers. Last year this was a team that rarely went downfield, with their average depth of target (ADOT) being 6.7. The only player with an ADOT over 10 was Richie James, the slot receiver. Last year there were underlying problems at quarterback (QB), the 49ers were forced to manufacture touches for their receivers. Rarely did 49ers QBs go downfield with any accuracy, on passes of 21+ yards all three QBS combined for 12/33. Jimmy G, the day one starter was 1/9 on deep passes, completely different from 2019 when Garoppolo had a 61.3 completion percentage downfield.
Julio Jones being added to the picture could help with these numbers. First off, last year Jones averaged 11.3 yards(yds)/target (tar), making him an excellent candidate to become the 49ers downfield threat. Someone who could help open up Shanahan’s run centric offense. We should remember that Julio Jones had his best statistical year in Shanahan’s offense. In 2015, Jones was targeted 203 times, catching 136 recs, for 1871 yds and 8 TDs. Shanahan is also incredibly good at shifting his offense based on his players’ capabilities.
Getting Julio Jones would open the door to a quicker transition to Trey Lance. Lance is a big armed QB whose potential in Shanahan’s offense is through the roof. Trey Lance needs to work on his accuracy, he had a 47.1 % accuracy during his South Dakota State career. Besides being inaccurate, he still tallied 2,947 passing yds, 30 TDs and 1 int, while rushing for 1,325 yds and 18 TDs. Adding Jones could provide the safety net that Trey Lance needs to bring his game to the NFL level.
The 49ers already have 2 starting wide receivers with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Both have the ability to benefit from Julio taking the number 1 role in the offense. Last year Deebo Samuel was thriving off of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Samuel’s manufactured touches turned him into a weapon in the 49ers offense. Aiyuk on the other hand has potential to become the lead receiver maybe sooner under the tutelage of Jones.
Overall, it would be fun to see but unlikely considering that the 49ers have Fred Warner to extend this next year. For the sake of this article I’d say Julio being a San Francisco 49er would bring up the stat lines of everyone around him. Jones on the other hand would probably see a dip in production, but this is to be expected with a rookie QB. My prediction with the 49ers is 60-70 recs, 800-1000 yds and 8 TDs.
LA Chargers
Justin Herbert, surrounded by Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Julio Jones would almost be too good. Herbert did an excellent job as a rookie QB in the NFL, winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He put up big time numbers with 4336 yds and 31 TDs, but also threw 10 ints. At times Herbert showed last year that when pressured he can make mistakes. Leading back to him being just a rookie, he at times would try too hard to bring the Chargers back into games. Adding Julio could help Herbert go supernova and campaign for the 2021 MVP.
As for Keenan Allen, whose 5 year target average/season since 2016 is 119, is close to Jones 134 tgts/season. This would be an interesting situation for whoever didn’t draw the double team, which would most likely be Allen. Either way I think that Herbert could easily support two 100 target receivers, and still have some left over for Austin Ekeler and Jared Cook. To me this duo would be a devastating game of pick your poison. On one hand you have one of the best underneath/short route receivers with Allen, on the other hand you have a good deep threat and one of the best receivers to ever play the game.
What all ties this together is the upgrades that the Chargers made overall as a team. Hiring Joe Lombardi was a really underrated move by the Chargers but one that looks phenomenal for Justin Herbert. Lombardi has been the QBs coach in New Orleans helping with the growth of Drew Brees. The Chargers brought in help on the o-line, with the addition of Cory Linsley and 1st round pick Rashawn Slater. Hopefully boosting the worst o-line in football and keeping Herbert on his feet this year.
Julio Jones being brought in by the Chargers would immediately boost the value of all Chargers weapons. Justin Herbert becomes a MVP candidate easily and the offense becomes an unstoppable force. If I were the Chargers I’d offer 2 2nd rounders and Mike Williams. They would become immediate contenders in the AFC West and a threat to the Chiefs. My prediction with the Chargers is 70-80 recs, 1200 yds and 10 TDs.
Tennessee Titans
The idea behind this fit is to evolve the offense past the run heavy, Derrick Henry centric offense. The Titans let Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith walk this offseason, leaving a void in the offense that can’t be filled by Josh Reynolds. It’s actually convenient that Davis and Smith are leaving, opening up 157 targets, because Jones averaged 158 targets from 2017-2019. So there might not be as much of a drop off in targets with the Titans.
The renaissance of Ryan Tannehill might be the best reason for Julio Jones to join Tennessee. Ever since coming to Tennessee in 2019, Tannehill has been nothing short of impressive. In 26 games with the Titans Tannehill’s numbers have been 6561 yds, 55 TDs. Since joining the Titans Tannehill has averaged 6.5 ints, impressive considering he averaged 12.5 in the six years prior with the Dolphins. Tannehill cutting back on turnovers and boasting a career high 78.3 Quarterback rating (QBR) may lead to the Titans bringing in Jones.
The next thing we have to talk about is how good the duo of AJ Brown and Julio Jones sounds. Brown has already been a spectacular wide receiver for the Titans. Posting 52 recs, 1051 yds, and 8 TDs on 84 tgts in his rookie year. Brown took a step forward in his sophomore year, putting up 70 recs, 1075 yds and 11 TDs on his way to a Pro Bowl appearance. Jones would take the pressure off of Brown and allow for the young up and coming receiver to run wild. Overall, Brown is an elite playmaker who can benefit greatly from having a mentor and fellow elite competitor in Julio Jones. The only question with these guys is who wears 11?
Julio to Tennessee now! pic.twitter.com/ixZNV7fApB
— AJ Brown (@1kalwaysopen_) May 26, 2021
The final reason this makes sense for Julio to be with the Titans is Derrick Henry. The Titans are running Derrick Henry into the ground, and having two elite wide receivers might save Henry’s longevity. 378 carries is the amount of pressure they put on Derrick Henry last year. This is Henry’s 2nd year in a row with 300 carries and if the Titans keep running back to that well, it may dry up (intended pun). Adding Julio Jones into the mix gives Tennessee more of a chance to lean on Ryan Tannehill and the receiving weapons in Tennessee.
Overall, putting Jones in a Titans uniform is going to elevate the game of everyone on the team, while hopefully giving Derrick Henry some rest. The Titans could trade a 1st rounder in 2022, in hopes that they could make a deep run with Jones. My prediction with the Titans would be 70 recs, 900-1000 yds, and 6 TDs.
Indianapolis Colts
Julio Jones on the Colts is probably the only path to identical receiving numbers for the talented wide receiver. The Colt receivers right now are unimpressive; with an aging Ty Hilton, an often injured Parris Campbell and a talented 2nd year Michael Pittman Jr. This is the best situation for Julio to get targeted 150 times and put up a very Julio-esque year.
The Colts have upgraded at quarterback this offseason by bringing in previously broken, Carson Wentz. They reunited the former Eagles quarterback with Head Coach Frank Reich, in hopes of reigniting the 2017 spark that the duo had. That year Wentz put up 33 TD and 3296 yds in 13 games of a MVP-like season. Since Reich’s departure, Wentz has dealt with the consistently inconsistent Eagles roster that seemingly battles with receiver and o-line injuries year in and year out. Playing behind the Colts offensive line should help Wentz stay up this year, allowing the 2nd lowest sack totals last year with 21. In other words, that line is damn good and should keep Wentz up long enough to get the ball out.
While known as a run heavy offense, last year Philip Rivers ranked 11th in the league with 543 pass attempts. Now with Wentz at the helm we should expect the Quarterback to pass the ball more, and if we add Julio into the picture, the sky’s the limit. Jones would add a safety net for Wentz, someone to go to when no one else is open. Jones is someone that can be targeted 10 times/game when no one else can step up. Ty Hilton would also go from being irrelevant in fantasy football to being a possible late round steal. This move would also provide a mentor for the talented up and comer Michael Pittman Jr. Jones drawing double teams and opposing defense’s attention will do wonders for the Colts wide receivers.
Overall, I think Jones would be very important in the Colts offense. He can easily return to his All-Pro form in Indianapolis, leading the Colts receiving corp. My prediction for Jones with the Colts is 100 recs, 1200 yds and 10-12 Tds. If he’s in Indy, Jones is a must have in re-draft and a strong consideration in dynasty.
Conclusion
Julio Jones is one of my favorite players of all time, but I fear his best days are behind him. That being said, I think his best value now to other teams is to help elevate younger players and help get them to the next level. Even if he doesn’t return to his elite form, these teams could use the future hall of famer.
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