Listen, everyone knows that the best players on the best teams are good fantasy pickups. I don’t have to tell you that an ascending and playoff-bound Luka Doncic is a great pick up, or that reigning two time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great move. But, as I have said before, I am a rookie to this whole fantasy basketball thing, and I want to share my lessons along the way. Here’s the latest tidbit to share: 

One thing I’m realizing in doing research? It’s not about who you have on the good teams. Everyone knows those names and can pick those guys. It’s who you have that can fill a stat sheet in a game no one watched. It’s the good players on the bad teams that can make the difference in head to head match up. 

So, what’s that mean for this NBA season? Well, there were eight teams that weren’t even good enough to make it to Orlando for the NBA restart. Sure, one of those teams was a beaten down and injured Golden State Warriors team… but the other seven? They had no shot, even with eight games of craziness to play their way in, of making the playoffs. The NBA was gonna go play games and was like “nah, y’all stay home… sit this out.” But those seven teams have some tremendous fantasy basketball players, even if they’re very flawed and have trouble winning a lot of regular basketball games. 

So, who are the good players on those bad teams? Who, from those teams, do you need on your squad?

Atlanta Hawks Fantasy Outlook

Trae Young

Yes, Trae Young has a real shot at being a regular All Star caliber guard for the foreseeable future. But he and the Atlanta Hawks struggle to win games in large part because their young pieces, Trae included, have issues defensively. However, those issues don’t translate into the vast majority of fantasy scoring. 

Trae Young is what we call a “gambling” defender. That is, when given the opportunity to go for the steal of play it safe, he goes for the steal… and if he misses? The other team gets an open shot. Bad for real basketball- but great for fantasy basketball. He’s good for a steal a game, and when added with his offensive stats, it’s a no-brainer. His assists went from 8.1 per game in his first year to 9.3 in his second. His points went from 19.1 to 29.6. If he has any elevation in stats this season, a 30 and 10 double-double average on 36-percent three-point shooting with a steal every night is a big pick up… even if he gives up a lot of points as a defender. 

Danilo Gallinari

“Gallo” is new to the Hawks, so his role is much less certain. That said, in his last five years he is over 18 points per game, over two assists per game, and over five rebounds per game in four seasons each. That is a subtle stat stuffer, and a lesser known name. 

Additionally, when looking at his new fit, Gallo may be the beneficiary of a lot of space. Young shooter Cam Reddish is opposite veteran shooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, and both of whom are opposite Gallinari. The floor spacing, with Young bringing the ball up and Capela in the middle, favors more open looks for Gallinari than he saw in a much different offense in Oklahoma City or Los Angeles. He’s the highest paid player on the team, it may be time to see him earn that check. 

Charlotte Hornets Fantasy Outlook

Gordon Hayward

Hayward has not been himself since his injury in the first five minutes of the 2017-18 season. However, the leap he made between the 2018-19 season and the 2019-20 season was a big one, and indicates he may be closer to his old self than previously thought possible. 

The season before the injury, when Hayward was the focal point of the Utah Jazz, he averaged 21.9 points, 3.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game while shooting 39.8 percent from three-point land. With increased usage this year, which we’re assuming that his $28.5 Million contract indicates he will have, it could be a great fantasy year. 

Devonte’ Graham

Let’s begin with this: Graham was absolutely robbed of the Most Improved Player a year ago. Graham went from 4.7 points, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 rebounds per game with just three starts to 18.2 points, 7.5 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game with 53 starts in his second year. That astronomical rise is the definition of improvement, even if it happens in losses that weren’t on national television. 

It’s not realistic to act like Graham will add another 14 points per game to his averages (though if you draft Graham and he gets 32 points per game this year, I would ask for a commission from your fantasy league). But historically, players make big jumps in the first three years of their career. This is just year three for Graham, so expectations are he still gets better. 

The biggest thing Graham did better in year two was shoot better. He shot 28 percent from three in year one, 37 percent in year two. His effective field goal percentage jumped seven points. Shooting is the kind of thing that NBA players continued to work on in the pandemic. We saw the increased number in Orlando’s bubble… Does that mean Graham is even more lights out?  

Chicago Bulls Fantasy Outlook

Zach LaVine

Sure, this name rings a bell after the high flying dunk contests of years past. But, most fantasy leagues won’t give you extra points for a dunk from the free-throw line… 

That doesn’t make Zach LaVine any less of a guy you have to have on your team. The growth of LaVine’s career has been remarkable. A guy who came into the league as a dunk artist is now a multi-tooled scoring threat. Last season, he averaged 28.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Further, he finished the season (even if it was cut off early) skyrocketing up the leading scorer lists. If LaVine can play the entire season as he finished the last one, pulling his average up three whole points in the last two months, he could end up being a lock for the All Star team. He should be someone to keep an eye on for your team as well. 

Lauri Markkanen

Heading into his fourth year, Markkanen is at a crossroads in his career. Last season, he saw a dip in production and the seven-foot Fin will need to play well to earn his qualifying offer next season. 

Working for Markkanen is his role in a Billy Donovan’s offense. In Donovan’s last stop in Oklahoma City he oversaw great production from the aforementioned Danilo Gallinari. Both players are tall, strong, and can be dangerous from behind the three-point line. 

Markkanen will have trouble on the defensive end, but luckily how many points he gives up shouldn’t be a stat kept in too many fantasy leagues. Look out for him to be off the board in the middle rounds of the draft at the latest. Between playing hard in a contract year and his role in a new offense, Markkanen may finally play his way into being the fantasy player many thought he’d be at the EuroBasket tournament in 2017. 

Cleveland Cavaliers Fantasy Outlook

Andre Drummond

Entering his ninth season, Andre Drummond has only played eight games since being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. But in his time there, he averaged 17.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. If you’re competing head to head, you need those kind of rebounding stats in your lineup. In eight seasons, Drummond has led the league in rebounds per game four times. Further, and of importance to help fantasy owners, Drummond has been very durable for a bigman. In his seven full seasons in Detroit, he played in more than 78 games six times. 

Drummond is sleeper because he has always been on bad teams. His playing style is relatively outdated and, as great as he is, few teams ever are interested in bringing him to a better situation. But that situation doesn’t change one thing: rebounding is hard. And if it’s an important stat in your fantasy league, you need to have Drummond on the squad. 

Collin Sexton

The Young Bull enters his third season eager to take the next big leap. His scoring jumped four points between his rookie and sophomore campaigns. Sexton looks to be much more comfortable in his first full season under head coach JB Bickerstaff. 

Sexton is a dynamic scorer that will be a great rotational guard in any fantasy lineup. He may be most famous for playing in a game of three on five while in his lone year at Alabama, but he has seen a lot of growth in his 18-months in the NBA 

Detroit Pistons Fantasy Outlook

Blake Griffin

Griffin is a career 21.8 points, 8.8 rebound, and 4.4 assist per-game player. He turns 31 this season, and in most cases he’d be a no-brainer. Getting that much well-rounded and efficient production from a power-forward is an easy checkmark in fantasy basketball.

The question on Griffin becomes his health and the toll several injuries have had on his body. If you’re getting the 24.5 point, 7.5 rebound, 5.4 assist guy from 2018-19? You could be getting a late round steal. If you get the guy who played 18 games last season and averaged just 15.5 points, 4.7 rebound, and 3.3 assist guy from last season, you may regret it. But, for what it’s worth, with each of his previous injuries, Blake has statistically bounced back the next season. I anticipate similar results especially in his second season under Dwane Casey.

Jerami Grant

Many saw Grant as the belle of the off-season ball in the NBA off season. Grant saw increased production in his last season in Oklahoma City before moving to Denver last year. In both places, the six-eight forward was a 39 percent three point shooter and wing defender. His versatility on defense has earned him more minutes than he had two seasons ago. 

Further, he has the opportunity to be a high usage guy in Detroit. In Oklahoma City, Grant shared the ball with Russell Westbrook and Paul George. In Denver, it was with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. In Detroit? There will be lots of nights where it’s he and Blake Griffin, some nights where it’s he and the second year Sekou Doumbouya, and some nights where it is just him. 

Golden State Fantasy Outlook

Ok, so admittedly, they are not a bad team… Just one that was unlucky with the injury bug last year. NEXT-

Minnesota Timberwolves Fantasy Outlook

D’Angelo Russell

Russell is a promising star who has found himself starting the season with a third team in as many seasons. The former number two overall pick was an All Star in his last full season with the same squad. After suiting up for Minnesota twelve times last year, it looks like Russell is poised to have a big season with his good friend Karl-Anthony Towns. 

In those Timberwolves games, Russell averaged 21.7 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game. This season Russell will have a full off season to integrate himself into his role. While it’s difficult to make the All Star game as a Western Conference guard, look for his offensive production to continue to grow as it has over his career thus far. 

Karl-Anthony Towns

Towns’ name has been in the news a lot lately after the incredibly difficult off season he just had. Towns lost seven family members, including his mother, to COVID-19. While the off the floor realities may understandably impact his fantasy world production, KAT should always be high on your fantasy basketball draft boards. 

Towns was good for 26.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game last year. He shot 41.2 percent from the three-point line, and he should only have more room to operate with friend and teammate D’Angelo Russell on the floor with him. While you may be inclined to keep he and his family in your prayers during a global pandemic, that shouldn’t bear change on his fantasy value. 

New York Knicks Fantasy Outlook

Julius Randle

Julius Randle may appear to be just one of a slew of forwards on another Knicks team that appears to be short of playoff contention. But Randle continues to add in stats at a high fantasy rate. Last season, in his lone year in The Big Apple, Randle averaged 19.5 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. 

In a Tom Thibodeau world, Randle may turn into one of the team’s primary ball handlers. The Knicks are forward heavy and guard short, but Randle’s skillset makes him someone who can go bridge the gap. And as Randle is a bigger ball handler, Thibodeau will always attack where he has a size advantage. Keep your eye on an even bigger year out of the former Kentucky Wildcat. 

Mitchell Robinson

Robinson aims to see major growth in his third full NBA season. The 22-year-old averaged 9.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Last season. But if there is anything a Thibodeau offense would feature, it’s a big man. If you look at the stats Joakim Noah and Karl-Anthony Towns have put up, they both saw bigger roles in the offense under “Thibs.” 

Further, off season workout videos indicate Robinson has expanded his game. His jumpshot has improved, and if teams have to cover his jumper he may get to show his athleticism off the bounce and on his way to the rim more often. Further, as a defensive anchor, he fits in well with Thibs and ought to get some more time on the floor this year. 

Keep up with my writing at Belly Up Sports, more Fantasy Basketball writing on the Belly Up Fantasy page, follow me on Twitter @painsworth512 for more, and give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts!