Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Packers Projections: Gettin’ Cheese

Green Bay, Title town. Land of a thousand cheeses. How is 2020 looking now that Aaron Rodgers gets to hang out with his heir apparent? In case you missed it, last time we covered the Detroit Lions. Now, we will travel down Brett Favre Lane, to see how the Packers look heading into 2020.

QB:

“Gonna prove you wrong, and you, and you, and everyone else.” Rodgers is gonna be on the war path in 2020. And he is here to prove the haters wrong. That means you, hater.

Aaron Rodgers: Passing: 362/564-4,303 Yds, 28 TD: 5 INT
Rushing: 38-153-2 TD: 4 FMBL
Standard: 302.42 (8)
0.5 PPR: 302.42 (8)
1 PPR: 302.42 (8)

Jordan Love: Passing: by Rodgers in hallways cautiously.
Rushing: to get out of Rodgers’s way when he enters a room. I can’t imagine there is lots of love here for Love.

Rodgers is notorious for carrying a chip on his shoulder from his draft day slide. Well Green Bay just added a whole bag of chips. I suspect this might be Rodgers last year in Wisconsin. But he is gonna put on a show in 2020. He is pissed, and he actually has some weapons to use outside Adams this year. I am expecting a pretty strong year for Rodgers, and don’t get why people are so low on him. He is one of the greats, and he is going to show that to the Packers in 2020.

Love is the future, but presently, I only like him in dynasty or as a Rodgers handcuff. He shouldn’t play at all in 2020 if everything works out like the Packers want it to.

RB:

Jones just found the end zone in 2019. Can he do it again in 2020? He is still gonna score.

Aaron Jones: Rushing: 216-1,068, 11 D: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 62 targets, 43 catches, 383 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 222.1 (8)
0.5 PPR: 243.6 (8)
1 PPR: 265.1 (9)

Jamaal Williams: Rushing: 73-301-2 TD
Receiving: 44 targets, 32 catches, 236 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 77.7 (52)
0.5 PPR: 93.7 (49)
1 PPR: 109.7 (48)

AJ Dillon: Rushing: 68-287-3 TD
Receiving: 12 targets, 8 catches, 61 Yds
Standard: 52.8 (62)
0.5 PPR: 56.8 (65)
1 PPR: 60.8 (65)

Aaron Jones was a man among boys last year as far as TDs go. He scored at a ridiculous rate. While I don’t believe that 2019 rate is sustainable, I also don’t believe he just wont remember how to score. This offense as a whole will be better, and Jones is primed to take advantage of it. He is gonna dominate the touches at RB, and will remain an elite option in all formats. I don’t see him finishing as RB1, but top 5 is well within the cards.

Williams and Dillon are tough to get a grasp on. Williams was solid when he replaced Jones last year, and the Dillon pick made zero sense to me at the time. Still doesn’t. How he fits in with that rotation is a bit of a mystery, but I project the Packers continue using Williams while working Dillon into the fold slowly. Maybe they don’t believe they can keep Jones. I just don’t get it.

Gimme exposure to Jones, but the other two freak me out too much to want much exposure.

WR:

Davante Adams: Receiving: 146 targets, 91 catches, 1,114 Yds, 11 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 176.4 (4)
0.5 PPR: 221.9 (4)
1 PPR: 267.4 (5)

Allen Lazard: Receiving: 82 targets, 52 catches, 706 Yds, 3 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 87.6 (60)
0.5 PPR: 113.6 (59)
1 PPR: 139.6 (58)

Jake Kumerow: Receiving: 46 targets, 27 catches, 449 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 56.9 (86)
0.5 PPR: 70.4 (87)
1 PPR: 83.9 (90)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Receiving: 35 targets, 18 catches, 289 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 34.9 (105)
0.5 PPR: 43.9 (106)
1 PPR: 52.9 (105)

Reggie Begelton: Receiving: 22 targets, 15 catches, 203 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 26.3 (111)
0.5 PPR: 33.8 (111)
1 PPR: 41.3 (113)

Equanimeous St. Brown: Receiving: 25 targets, 16 catches, 195 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 25.5 (113)
0.5 PPR: 33.5 (112)
1 PPR: 41.5 (112)

Adams is a stud, a beast, and he is a virtual lock for top 5 WR. This year should be no different, with Rodgers returning to form. Adams is going to get a massive target share, snag him early. He has WR1 upside, and his floor is higher than his 2019 finish. That was an anomoly and nothing to be concerned about. We have seen enough of Adams to know he is gonna ball out in 2020.

The rest of these guys, well, here is where you win your leagues. Lazard has the most hype, and I suspect he earns WR2 status. But between Kumerow, MVS, Begelton, and Equanimeous, good luck knowing which week which one is going to be the guy. I see potential in each and am getting a bit of exposure to all of them because one of these guys is going to pay off big. I feel comfortable saying Lazard winds up at 2, but at three, right now I feel safest projecting Kumerow, but consider Begelton the sleeper. He produced everywhere he was, and I think that production translates to the NFL.

Good luck picking between the WR3s. Snag Adams, target Lazard late, and then go with your gut on that third WR, because he will wind up becoming flex depth.

TE:

Look at Jace juking a DE. But he is capable of more, I assure you. Think Witten, and you will get an idea.

Jace Sternberger: Receiving: 70 targets, 47 catches, 532 Yds, 4 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 76.2 (21)
0.5 PPR: 99.7 (20)
1 PPR: 123.2 (20)

Marcedes Lewis: Receiving: 20 targets, 13 catches, 135 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 19.5 (60)
0.5 PPR: 26 (60)
1 PPR: 32.5 (60)

I am a huge Jace truther in dynasty. I think 2020 is when he starts to show why. Sternberger is the definitive TE1 for the Packers this year, and his role will grow as the season progresses. I could also see 4 TDs being low for him. But regardless of 2020, hop all over this guy in dynasty, it is gonna pay off.

Lewis has low ceiling stream option status if Sternberger goes down, but not much more. He is a better NFL player than fantasy player. Stick to Jace, he is the one with the massive upside. I have a feeling Sternberger makes Packers fans real happy in 2020. Dynasty teams who land him should see those benefits sooner rather than later.

I project the Packers to score 1,339.32 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is 6th overall. I love both the Aaron’s, Adams is elite, and there is some later value here with Sternberger and Lazard. The Packers offense is going to be explosive in 2020, get some exposure and enjoy the show. Rodgers is going to rebound in a huge way.

Ok cheeseheads, let me know what you think. My dad is a huge Packers fan, and I suspect 2020 is going to be a good year for him. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Minnesota Vikings.