High Value Futures

Welcome back everyone to day four of the “Week of High Value Futures.” In this article series, I am identifying NFL future bets that I believe have a high value to us bettors. That means I am scavenging through the futures, not to find the bets that are most likely to hit, but to find the ones that have a real chance to hit while boasting a large betting line. That means the bets are known as high-risk, high-reward. However, if, or when, these bets hit, the payouts on small wagers can be massive.

So, if you want to place a small wager on each of my high value future bet recommendations, you will likely only need one or two of them to hit in order to profit. Therefore, if you like the concept of this series, and want to read about my other future bet recommendations, go check out day one, day two, and day three‘s articles.

NFC East

The 2020 NFC East has become a recurring joke among NFL fans. Each week you see fans and media make joke after joke about how horrible this division is. And as Week 14 comes to a close, it is seeming more and more likely that this may be the worst season an NFL division has played as a collective whole in football history. In all likelihood the winner or this division will have a losing record. Which has led to fans legitimately campaigning that the seven best records make the playoffs, just so one of these teams don’t have to get embarrassed in the playoffs.

However, these pleas are not going to be answered by Commissioner Goodell. Which means we’ll be watching one of these teams play on Wild Card Weekend. So which team do I believe we’ll be betting on as a double digit underdog in January?

High Value Future: NFC East Champs

Unlike any other division in the NFL, the NFC East’s top spot has been a revolving door all season. At one point or another, all four teams have been listed as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC Least. With all four teams still capable of winning the division after Week 14, the value plays here are plentiful. The current odds-on favorite to win is the Washington Football Team at -305. The Giants odds are currently +400, the Eagles are at +600, and Dallas is at +10000. So clearly, the high value pick here is Dallas, right? No. Definitely not. This division is bad, but my oh my is Dallas worse. My pick here goes to the team with the current second-worst odds to win the division, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Why the Eagles Will Win the NFC East

Carson Wentz has been benched. There hasn’t been a day more deserving of a parade in Phladelphia since Foles led them to a Super Bowl victory over Brady’s Patriots. Now, I don’t think Wentz is a bad quarterback, but clearly he is no longer capable of succeeding in Philadelphia. The team, coaches, and system around him have been setting him up to fail ever since he first got hurt in 2017. And now, finally, they have pulled him out of the fire. And Rookie QB Jalen Hurts has been given the reigns as his career record now sits at 1-0 with an impressive win over the former division-leading Saints.

With Jalen Hurts now under center full-time the Eagles are a different animal. I’m not sure if they are even better with Hurts, but what’s important is that they’re different. Clearly, the blueprint was out on how to stop Philly with Wentz at QB. Put him under pressure, and he will abandon the offense and lose the game for himself. Hurts on the other hand, is a fresh face. There is not much film on Hurts, or the Philly offensive scheme with him under center. And with his dynamic running ability he can make life miserable for opposing defensive coordinators. Therefore, I do not know if Hurts can be a long-term solution in Philadelphia, but I do believe he can be enough of a short-term difference maker to launch them back to the top of the NFC East by season’s end.

How the Eagles Will Win the NFC East

The Eagles may now be the hardest team to game plan for through the last three weeks of the season. There’s just no way to truly predict what this team will do with Hurts over Wentz. And that notion was clear on Sunday as Hurts handled an elite Saints defense en route to a surprising victory. And what that taught me was that if this team can beat the Saints, they can beat the remaining teams on their schedule as well. The Eagles last three games will come against Arizona, Dallas, and Washington. And because of their early-season tie with Cincinnati, the Eagles will only have to tie for the division-high in wins to claim the division title.

So, with a division race this tight, and with teams this inconsistent, the last three weeks can shake out in a vast abundance of ways. However there are two scenarios I believe to be highly plausible that leave Philly in the division lead. The first scenario has the Eagles finishing their last three games 3-0. If they can sweep their final three games, they only need Washington and New York to lose one extra game a piece. And with New York playing Cleveland and Baltimore, and Washington facing Seattle and Carolina, both clubs could easily lose one of those two games.

There is another plausible scenario where Philly wins the title. In this scenario, the Eagles lose to Arizona, but beat Dallas and Washington. If that occurs, and the Giants lose to the Ravens and Browns, while Washington finishes 0-3, then Philly will be NFC East champs again. Given that there are multiple outcomes where Philly wins the division, and their offense has just been reborn, I think there is a lot of value for them to win the division at +600.

Why the Field Won’t Win the NFC East

The football being played by the four NFC East teams has been abysmal this year. However, they may have the most intriguing division race in the NFL. And I suppose that counts for something. There is just so much unknown about all four teams. But, one thing we do know is that each of these teams could beat a legitimate playoff team on their best day. New York beat Seattle, Washington beat Pittsburgh, Philly took down the Saints, and even Dallas squeaked one out against Minnesota. However, while they can all win on their best day, these teams are much more accustomed to playing like it’s their worst day. So, how will these teams flush their division hopes away?

Washington Football Team

The current odds-on favorite to win the NFC East is… the Washington Football Team. A team without a name. Speaking of future bets, if you placed one on them to win the division in the preseason you have your fingers crossed that they don’t throw this lottery ticket away for you. Unfortunately, I think they’ll do just that. I mean they’re the Washington Football Team. What part of their history would lead you to believe they won’t?

So, the Washington Football Team has won back to back games against Pittsburgh and San Francisco. This has a lot of people riding high on this team, including the Sportsbooks. However, I think people have to step back and remember that this might be the greatest two-game stretch in that organization since the days of Art Monk and John Riggins. And the wins might not be as good as they look on paper. Washington got to play a depleted Pittsburgh, with a full week of extra prep time for the game compared to their opponent. Then, they went out and beat the 49ers in a close game. That is the 49ers without Nick Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and seemingly the rest of their roster on the IR.

Washington benefitted from being the opponent in back-to-back trap games for better teams. However, now Washington is about to come back to Earth as they have to face a re-emerging Seattle team in Week 15. Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and the rest of Seattle’s crew will remind this team who they really are. Then, they face another decent team in Carolina. However, regardless of that outcome, it is likely that the division will be won in Week 17 when Washington plays the Eagles, and I like the Eagles’ odds.

New York Giants

Just two days ago, the Giants were the favorite to win the NFC East. Colt McCoy stepped in and delivered a win against the Seattle Seahawks. They were emerging in a bad division and it meant a division title. However, life comes at you quick in the NFL. Daniel Jones returned in Week 14 and turned in a horrible performance against Arizona. 127 passing yards, no touchdowns, no rushing yards, and a fumble. It made Giants fans wonder if Colt McCoy could come back in. This game was a tough pill to swallow for the Giants, but it did prove one thing to me. Any team can catch lightning in a bottle in this division. It just matters when you catch it. And unfortunately for the Giants, they caught it too early.

The Giants remaining schedule is the toughest among the NFC East teams. They will have to play back to back games against legitimate playoff contenders in the Browns and Ravens, followed by a Week 17 game against Dallas. Of course there are many scenarios in which this division race can play out, but I’ll keep it simple here.

The Giants will likely lose to the Browns and Ravens, and that will be their season’s demise. Those two teams are simply too good at running the ball and stopping the run. So, the best chance an opponent has to beat either of them is to get into a high-scoring shootout. The Giants and Daniel Jones just don’t have the firepower necessary to win a shootout with those teams. Sorry Giants fans, I think your future is bright, and the return of Saquon Barkley will be a game changer next year. For now, next year is all you have to look forward to.

Dallas Cowboys

This should be quick. I’ve said many times that a tight division race like this one can shake out many ways. Though I don’t see any scenario where Dallas comes to victorious. Ever since Dak Prescott‘s foot spun around on his leg like the girl’s head in The Exorcist, Dallas has looked like a bottom three team in the league. And nobody was impressed that they beat the Bengals, especially without Joe Burrow. So, I do not think Dallas is good enough to win another game.

They have to play the 49ers, Eagles, and Giants to finish the season. I don’t see any way that their Swiss cheese defense can slow down a Kyle Shanahan offense, no matter how many players are out for them. Then, they have to face-off with two divisional rivals who are legitimately fighting for the division title. Sorry Dallas fans. You’ll finish this season 4-12, just look forward to that nice high draft pick. I heard it’s another good wide receiver class this year.

Claiming the High Value Future

The 2020 NFC East has been one of the strangest divisions we’ve ever watched. All four teams have been exceptionally bad throughout the year. Which is interesting because it means all four teams have been in contention to win the division all year long. Washington and New York have been the hottest teams recently. However, with the new Philly offense being operated by Jalen Hurts, I believe the high value play as of Week 15 is to back the Eagles to win the division. The current line for the Eagles to win the NFC East is +600 on Draftkings Sportsbook. If you do decide to tail this high value bet, please bet responsibly. Good luck!

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