Friday, April 19, 2024

Fantasy Football

Hold onto 2023 2nds

People have been excited about the 2023 class for over a year now. This has largely led to a very high valuation for 2023 1sts. People have been acquiring these assets last year hoping to get names like Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CJ Stroud, and Bryce Young. However, this class is also looking to be deep beyond just twelve players. Generally, 2nd round picks are not very valuable. This is largely because there are low odds they will be fantasy relevant. This has generally been the correct way to see them as, for the past couple of years, there haven’t been enough good prospects to make 2nd rounders that valuable. But I think you should hold onto 2023 2nds. This article will explain why.

The First Round

This isn’t to say you should be selling your 1sts to get 2nds, though that could be a good idea if you want running back depth and can get a haul. This is more about how deep this class is. In Superflex leagues, the consensus has about three QBs, two RBs, and three WRs going in the first round. After those eight, there are still many attractive prospects.

The Second Round

Let’s look at some names that many people are excited about.

QB:

  • Anthony Richardson

RBs:

  • Tank Bigsby
  • Zach Evans
  • Sean Tucker
  • Zach Charbonnet
  • Devon Achane
  • Kendre Miller
  • Israel Abanikanda

WRs:

  • Kayshon Boutte
  • Zay Flowers
  • Jalin Hyatt
  • Josh Downs
  • Rashee Rice
  • Marvin Mims
  • Xavier Hutchinson

TE:

  • Michael Mayer
Michael Mayer – TE Notre Dame – NFL.com

That’s sixteen names! Combine that with the eight potential 1st rounders I mentioned earlier, and that’s twenty-four total names, enough to fill two full rounds of a rookie draft in a 12-team league. Of course, some of these names might drop off after the combine and draft, so I would not necessarily target late 2nds. But there is enough depth here to make me think that early and mid-2nds will be quite valuable. I would equate them to late 2022 1sts. While I would see late 2023 2nds as roughly equivalent to early-to-mid 2022 2nds.

I am not saying these 2023 2nds have high probabilities of being hits. But I think by the time the fantasy rookie drafts roll around, there will be a good number of 2nd rounders who we’ll see similarly to how we valued Dameon Pierce last year. This would not be as a probably locked-in future fantasy starter, but as someone who has a good chance to be a FLEXable asset with a shot at being more.

Wrap-Up

Not every class is the same. I said last year that I was willing to pivot off of late 1st rounders like Skyy Moore for an early 2023 2nd and that still stands. The talent at the top of this class has been highly touted, but the depth of this class is also often neglected. Hold onto 2023 2nds and maybe also consider trying to acquire them if their owners undervalue them. I’m not saying they’re studs and to trade every-week starters for them, but there are many good prospects that could make these picks quite valuable come draft time. I would not treat these 2nds as shots in the dark, which is how I saw 2022 2nds.

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