There are many talks of Garrett Wilson being overhyped. He’s a rookie who finished as WR21 but he’s being drafted as the WR5 in dynasty and and the WR10 in redraft. That’s quite the leap. Is Garrett Wilson overvalued?

Last Year

Garrett Wilson was a highly touted prospect who was drafted 10th overall. He lived up to that by immediately impressing in the NFL and winning offensive rookie of the year. He finished the season as the fantasy WR21 without missing any games, which is a far cry from WR5-10. His excuse: Zach Wilson.

Despite being drafted #2 overall the previous year, Zach Wilson has been a disaster at the NFL level and that hurt Garrett Wilson. However, due to injuries and eventual benching, Zach missed time, giving way to subpar, but better QBs in Mike White and Joe Flacco. When Zach Wilson played, Garrett Wilson averaged 8.6 PPR points. When he hasn’t, Garrett averaged 17.3 PPR points. That’s an immense difference. For context, only 8 WRs averaged over 17.3 PPR points.

Next Year

Wide receivers generally improve throughout their first 3 years. The bigger factor though is that he’s getting a huge QB upgrade in Aaron Rodgers. Many are saying Aaron Rodgers isn’t what he used to be, but even that’s true, he was still an average quarterback last year, which is much better than who the Jets had behind centre. However, I’d also say, Rodgers had some decent excuses for the previous year through subpar receivers and a broken thumb. I’m not saying he’ll win back-to-back MVPs, but Wilson being the alpha receiver for a good QB will set him up to succeed.

Wrap-Up

CeeDee Lamb was the WR22 in his rookie season and immediately became the WR5 in dynasty. I don’t think he’s ever lived up to his ADP, but he’s now being drafted as the WR3 in dynasty. Being valued the way Garrett is isn’t unprecedented. He has proven he can put up WR9 numbers when Zach Wilson isn’t his QB and barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers, I don’t see that happening. That proves his redraft ADP of WR10 is reasonable. Also, 4 of the 8 WRs who scored above 17.3 PPR points per game either are 30 or are turning 30. The other 4 are the only WRs ranked above Garrett. I’d say that also justifies his dynasty ADP of WR5. So is Garrett Wilson overvalued? I don’t think so.

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