Jaguars undrafted rookie running back James Robinson took the league by storm in 2020. But is the rookie sensation just a one-year fantasy wonder? Should you want Robinson on your fantasy team in 2021? Let’s break it down.

A Pleasant Surprise for Fantasy Owners

After the Jags cut Leonard Fournette prior to the start of last season, nobody was really sure what the team’s backfield would look like. That was until Robinson started collecting ankles and carrying multiple defenders for extra yards each game. He quickly claimed a workhorse role on the lowly Jaguars, and boy did he deliver for those who were smart enough to pick him up in fantasy.

Robinson finished the season with 1,070 rushing yards on 240 carries and seven rushing touchdowns. He also caught 49 of 60 targets for 344 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He played in 14 of 16 total games for the Jags last season and was a solid RB2 throughout the year for his fantasy owners. Robinson also tallied nine games with 15 or more carries last year. Not bad for a guy most fantasy owners picked up off the waiver wire at the beginning of the season.

Can Robinson Do it Again in 2021? It Depends.

There is no doubt that Robinson had a spectacular rookie campaign. But can he replicate it? Since Robinson plays for a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode, his fantasy owners last year should be skeptical about targeting the young back again in 2021. With that being said, he showed flashes of excellence playing in a dysfunctional offense this past year, and that alone is something to consider if you’re thinking about drafting Robinson next season.

Robinson’s success next season will also depend heavily on how Trevor Lawrence plays under center for Jacksonville in his rookie campaign. With opposing defenses now having a year of Robinson’s film to analyze, it should be expected that teams are going to focus a lot of attention on him. If Lawrence struggles in this Jags offense, which is starving for talent at most positions, it could mean stacked boxes for Robinson. Unless Robinson can bring out his inner Adrian Peterson in his second season, stacked boxes would not bode well for his fantasy production in 2021.

Urban Meyer’s Playcalling Style Also a Concern

Yet another potential detriment to Robinson’s fantasy production in 2021 is Urban Meyer’s tendency to run his quarterback often. Lawrence has demonstrated his running ability during his three seasons at Clemson. Meyer is likely to utilize Lawrence’s athleticism at the pro level considering his history of running his quarterbacks at the college level. This in turn could take several carries away from Robinson each contest, which should generate concern for anyone thinking about drafting the Jags’ RB in 2021.

On the contrary, if Robinson and Lawrence quickly develop chemistry on option plays, it could actually elevate Robinson’s production on the ground. Since he played most of his rookie season with journeyman bum Mike Glennon under center, we have not yet seen what Robinson looks like playing with a competent quarterback. So, while both Lawrence’s mobility and Meyer’s desire to run his quarterback could hinder Robinson’s production in 2021, there is also a chance that those factors actually boost his production as well. We simply won’t know until we see how the new-look Jaguars offense operates next season.

Should you Draft James Robinson in 2021?

There is no yes or no answer to this question. Instead, it more so depends on how many rounds go by in your draft with Robinson still on the board. ADP is key here. I do not believe it’s wise to take Robinson any earlier than the fourth round. It’s going to be tough to win games in your league if you use one of your top three picks on Robinson and he comes plummeting back to earth this year. And, as we all know, quality running backs are hard to come by in fantasy.

On the other hand, if your league is full of paranoid early-round quarterback grabbers and/or receiver-loving boneheads, and you can get Robinson later than the third round, you have to take him. Consistent production from your running backs is so vital in fantasy, especially for my non-PPR players out there. There seems to always be more breakout receivers floating on the waiver wire at the start of each fantasy season than breakout running backs. For this reason, if you’re going to take a risk early on in your draft, it has to be on a running back in my eyes. Take James Robinson if he’s available after round three of your draft.

Reminder: He Could Be a One-Year Fantasy Wonder

I’m all about taking Robinson, but at the right time in your draft. Make sure you’re not taking anyone in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense with any of your top three picks. Not only could Robinson be a one-year fantasy wonder and regress this season, but why in the name of all that’s good in the world would you take someone playing in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense with one of your top three picks? That’s a death sentence for your team. Just don’t do it to yourself. It’s a long fantasy season and you’re better than that.

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