Friday, November 22, 2024

Fantasy Football

Jalen Hurts: The Case for QB1

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Jalen Hurts, #1 | QB Philadelphia Eagles

Dual-Threat Quarterbacks

In fantasy football, managers are always looking for an edge to get a leg up on their opponent. In recent years, the easiest way to do this is by drafting a quarterback (QB) that can escape the pocket, such as Jalen Hurts, and rush for yards whenever they can. Since 2012, six of the ten seasons had a dual-threat QB1. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, both pocket passers, made up the other four seasons. It is clear that drafting a dual-threat QB is the way to go. The only question is, how much of an edge do they give? Let’s find out.

QB Statistics Deep Dive

This is what was found after a brief analysis of QB rushing yards per game and their respective fantasy points production since 2011.

The “Old School” Pocket Passer

Since 2011, there have been roughly 168 of them. Think of Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. These QBs would often rush for ten yards or less during a game and finish with approximately 15 fantasy points per game (FPPG).

The “New Age” Pocket Passer

Since 2011, there have been roughly 77 of them. Think of Carson Wentz, Tua Tagovailoa, and Ryan Tannehill. These QBs would often scramble for 20 yards or less in a game and finish with roughly 15.7 FPPG.

The Moderate Scrambler

Since 2011, there have been roughly 53 of them. Think of Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes. These QBs would often scramble up to 35 or 40 yards per game and finish with around 17.2 FPPG.

The Common Rusher

Since 2011, there have been approximately 13 of them. Think of players such as Justin Fields, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson. These QBs usually rush for around 50 yards per game and finish with about 18.1 FPPG.

The Rushing Elites

In my opinion, there have been nine QBs like this since 2011. Think of Josh Allen, Michael Vick, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. These QBs, the best of the best at rushing, would usually find their way to the 50 to 60 yards per game range and finish with over 22 FPPG.

Jalen Hurts’ Career Stats

Through the beginning of his career, Jalen Hurts has been skillfully productive. During his few starts in 2020, Hurts scored 25.23 significant points per game, which were good for 2nd among QBs, 75.7 fantasy points from Weeks 14-16, which was good for 3rd among QBs, and had a TD dependency of 38.4 percent, which was 6th among QBs. In 2021, he played in only 15 games and posted 3,144 passing Yds, 784 rushing Yds, 16 passing TDs, ten rushing TDs, and nine interceptions.

Hurts’ Path To QB1 Glory

With borderline mediocre passing stats and elite rushing ability, there is not a lot to do. With the Eagles signing A.J. Brown, Hurts could add a significant amount of passing yards and TDs with just 1-3 extra passing attempts per game. Brown can impact an offense at every level of the field: short, intermediate, and a surefire deep-ball threat. This includes aiding the improvement of Hurts’ TD rate, yards per attempt, and overall fantasy football score. Even if this change does not come right away for the 2022 season, the entire offense is very young and has some time to establish themselves. Jalen Hurts is 23, Miles Sanders is 24, A.J. Brown is 24, DeVonta Smith is 23, Quez Watkins is 23, and Dallas Goedert is 27

Jalen Hurts a Liability?

During a recent Jalen Hurts segment on FS1’s Undisputed, Shannon Sharpe commented on Hurts’ tendency to scramble. He stated the following:

“A quarterback that runs is a liability. A quarterback that CAN run is an asset.”

Shannon Sharpe, 2022

I both agree and disagree with his statement. A QB that is usually a pocket passer or a very skilled passer, to begin with that CAN run is extremely dangerous for defenses and is a gem for fantasy football purposes; take Josh Allen, for example, and Patrick Mahomes at times. However, I can’t entirely agree with his initial sentence. I would consider Michael Vick to have been primarily a running QB. Sure he had a nice arm too, but most of the damage was done on the ground, not to mention that he was not a liability for the Falcons/Eagles. This brings me back to Jalen Hurts. Hurts does not look to run it first himself. The Eagles have always had an RB-heavy-rushing scheme, and Hurts has been developing his arm to compete with the likes of Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes for arm talent. Jalen Hurts is an asset to NFL teams and fantasy football teams.

Final Thoughts on Jalen Hurts

If you have followed me for the last two fantasy football seasons, you know that I have been pushing for Jalen Hurts’ success story since his first time coming into the game to replace Carson Wentz. I was high on him last season, and my initial QB rankings (as of 5/19/22) have him even higher at the QB3 spot (see the entire QB rankings here). Jalen Hurts is trying to make himself better, be a team leader, and be a guy ready to succeed in his role. I believe that Jalen Hurts will throw for over 4,000 passing Yds and scramble for over 1,000 rushing Yds, a feat that has never been done before. I am throwing all the chips on the table and betting that he will be the first to do that. Get your shares of Jalen Hurts before you are too late.

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