Friday, November 08, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Landing Spots Are Running Out for Justin Fields

I wrote an article at the beginning of the year about whether Justin Fields will still be a Chicago Bear. I thought the Bears should move on from him. At the time, many were who were adamant that the Bears would stick with him and use their draft capital to build around him. However, now, it’s a widely held belief that the Chicago Bears are drafting Caleb Williams with their first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. However, they still have Justin Fields on the roster, who many believe can still be a starting QB. I am not so confident in his talent, but I think there is a good chance he gets a chance to start somewhere at least for the start of the 2024 season. At the beginning of the offseason, there were many potential landing spots, however those are drying up quickly. Landing Spots Are Running Out for Justin Fields.

Teams With Their QBs

I’d say there are 20 teams that definitely have their starting QB for this upcoming season. Barring an injury, I would imagine these teams have the same starter for the entire year. This is either because they have QBs who have proven they are starting QBs, they have a contract that essentially guarantees them the job, or because they recently invested a first-round pick into them and will therefore give them the time to prove themselves.

  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Miami Dolphins
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Teams Likely Not Looking for QB

These are 8 teams that I don’t think are looking for free agent QBs. This is either because they have a passable QB that they have paid or they have a top 3 pick in a class with 3 exciting QB prospects. The other situation is Tennessee where I would think Will Levis gets a shot to start with his somewhat early draft capital and lack of decent alternatives.

  • Chicago Bears
  • New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Sants
  • New York Giants
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Washington Commanders

Teams That Are Left

That leaves 4 teams with no starting QB on their roster and no clear path to a top rookie QB prospect.

  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Denver Broncos
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins will likely end up on one of these teams. With growing hype around rookies like J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix, these teams could look to the draft for their future QB. There are also free agents who teams might start like Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Since landing spots are running out for Justin Fields, I would be very concerned about his value. Many were saying the Bears might get the Falcons’ 8th overall pick for Fields 3 months ago. Now I think they should be thankful to even get the 8th pick in the 2nd round for him. For perspective, that’s a lower pick than what the Bears paid for Chase Claypool from the previous draft. They got rid of him soon afterwards.

With no news of the Broncos or Raiders pursuing Justin, it seems like the Bears, Raiders, or Vikings are the main options left. If he stays in Chicago, he’s likely a backup. And with Atlanta and Minnesota pursuing Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields looks like he will be the backup plan and consolation prize to whoever doesn’t land the 35-year-old QB with an Achilles injury.

CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 10: Quarterback Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears warms up prior to an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on September 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
Landing Spots Are Running Out for Justin Fields

Wrap-Up

As you can see, landing spots are running out for Justin Fields. Why does this matter for fantasy? It matters because in dynasty, you need to constantly evaluate the value of your players. Part of that involves forecasting their value. Justin Fields’ value right now could be drastically different if and once he is traded. Not only could the landing spot matter because of how successful you may project him to be there. But the price also matters since that affects how invested a team is in him. If the Falcons gave their 8th overall pick for Fields and signed him to an extension, his value would explode. But if it turns out nobody wants him besides the Falcons and he doesn’t get an extension, his value would plummet. A QB who has been subpar for his entire career on an expiring contract doesn’t have job security.

I wrote an article last year about selling high on Justin Fields. He was being drafted as the QB7 as a top 10 pick in Superflex startups. I thought that was wild for someone who showed so little talent and it ended up being the right call. His value is plummeting but in my opinion, it’s still too high. He has fantasy upside, but that doesn’t matter if you’re not on the field (no pun intended).

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