Drafting your fantasy football team is the most important part of the season, leagues are won by late-round picks. However, like old miners who panned for gold in the Wild West, we also must distinguish a true gem from fools’ gold. Finding that gem who goes off for a ridiculous season is often the difference when it counts. Lucky for you I put together a list of five guys who could be the key to winning your league. None of these players have an average draft position (ADP) of higher than 100 on Sleeper. I’m gonna give you some pros and some cons on each of them. So get your pan and your microscope, ’cause there’s gold in this river. 

1. Hunter Renfrow (WR) Las Vegas Raiders: (ADP:103, WR 40)

Pros: Renfrow being this low surprises me given his production last year. Almost all the reports out of Raiders camp have indicated a large role for Renfrow in 2022. He’s an exceptional route runner and built chemistry with Derek Carr in the absence of Darren Waller last season. The Raiders showed confidence in him by giving him a two-year, $32 million extension this offseason as well. Snagging Renfrow in the late rounds gives you an extremely high-floor WR 3 or flex. 

Cons: The Raiders obviously added superstar Davante Adams in free agency this offseason. He has tons of existing chemistry with Carr from their time at Fresno State. Adams will eat up a good deal of targets, but so will the return of Darren Waller. The worst-case scenario for Renfrow is a decline to numbers near his rookie or sophomore season due to low volume.  

2. Christian Kirk (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars: (ADP:120, WR 48)

Pros: Christian Kirk played his best season last year and nearly broke the 1,000-yard mark. He just signed a highly lucrative deal to make him the Jaguars’ number one receiving weapon. Trevor Lawrence has praised him as being “really quarterback friendly” and they seem to have early chemistry.  Kirk could easily be heading for a 90+ reception season making him a great late-round bet based on volume alone. 

Cons: Is Kirk actually quarterback-friendly? Kirk has had drop issues throughout his career and the volume uptick last season exposed it even more. He has less than half a season of experience being a team’s top target as well. My biggest concern is whether or not Kirk can continue to produce against top-tier corners. He also may not be available in some leagues as a late-round pick, his potential value is being discovered a bit more as of late. 

3. Tyler Allgeier (RB) Atlanta Falcons (ADP:136, RB 41)

Pros: Allgier had a ridiculous 2020 season at BYU where he averaged over seven yards per carry. His 2021 season was also impressive as he averaged almost six yards per carry on nearly 300 carries. He forced 77 missed tackles which ranked ninth in the nation and added over 1,100 yards after contact, second in the nation. He also managed to find the endzone a whopping 36 times over the last two seasons. Allgeier is set to begin the season behind Cordarrelle Patterson on the depth chart, but could easily overtake him. The Falcons have indicated a split workload designed to keep the 31-year-old Patterson from seeing too many touches. Allgeier could see plenty of early work in goal line situations and as a third-down back for the Falcons. 

Cons: Allgeier doesn’t have the receiving skills that fantasy studs at running back typically do. He totaled less than 500 yards receiving for his college career. Allgeier will also be limited in usage especially early in the year. He also had notable dips in production against the best teams on the schedule last year at BYU.

4. Evan Engram (TE) Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP:180, TE 22)

Pros: Engram has all the athletic traits you want in a tight end. He received an RAS score of nine out of ten coming out of college. He’s been able to produce almost 3,000 yards despite several quarterbacks and a revolving door of coaches. When Engram is on the field he draws a high volume of targets. He’s likely playing with the most talented quarterback of his career this year and should be a major part of the offense. He should be available as a late-round pick in deep leagues and on the waiver wire in others.

Cons: Drops and injuries have earned Engram a bust label. He set seven NFL records as a rookie but has been largely ineffective since. His red zone usage collapsed completely last season, dropping from 14 targets in 2020 to just three. Engram will need to show he has more left in the tank in training camp to earn back those opportunities. 

5. Marlon Mack (RB) Houston Texans. (ADP:181, RB 56)

Pros: Mack is the lead back in Houston’s offense and is guaranteed high volume. He’s currently getting drafted 23 spots after his own backup, and in the same range as rookie Hassan Haskins. Mack struggled with injuries and lost ground to Nyheim Hines but was a 1,000 yards rusher as recently as 2019. He’s definitely worth a late-round pick as a high-ceiling flex option. 

Cons: Mack’s injury history is the largest concern. He’s dealt with a number of injuries in his left leg throughout his career. He may also lose ground to Dameon Pierce throughout the year. Pierce is a highly talented back out of Florida that the Texans drafted in the fourth round this year. 

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