Leon “Rocky” Edwards has accepted the challenge of welcoming Khamzat Chimaev to the ranked UFC world at the threat of losing his ranking. No matter what happens March 13th, Leon Edwards cannot win. Let’s talk about the super talented athlete fighting out of Birmingham, England, and what to expect when he collides with the newcomer.

Rocky Can Finish or Score

Leon Edwards has been in the octagon with world-class strikers and world-class grapplers. He outpointed Cowboy Cerrone, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Gunnar Nelson in his last three fights, all demonstrations of stand-up excellence. Edwards is a striker first, but not without the threat of submission. In 18 professional wins, nine times he has won on points, six times by knockout, and three times by submission. More important to the “Rocky” nickname, Edwards has heart. He has never been finished, with a loss by DQ once and decision twice. He showcases strong range management and precision striking, along with strong takedown defense. With experience against elite wrestling in the UFC (his last loss came via UD to current champ Kamaru Usman), “Rocky“ is a problem for anyone at 170 pounds.

Rising Star Staredown

Edwards currently finds himself due to face rising star Khamzat Chimaev on March 13. Chimaev took 2020 by storm, setting a new record for fastest back-to-back wins at only ten days. Khamzat sits at 9-0 as a professional, and 3-0 in the UFC. Dana White loves this new addition, and clearly thinks he has a real contender on his hands. Leon Edwards will be the first truly elite fighter to test that theory. “Rocky” was scheduled to face Tyron Woodley early in 2020, but Covid-19 prevented that matchup. Edwards was stuck in neutral for a while, and eventually was removed from the rankings due to “inactivity” (that logic is applied inconsistently across the roster by UFC brass). Immediately after being removed, the matchup vs Chimaev, currently ranked 15, was announced. Backed into a corner, Edwards decided to come out swinging.

Why He Loses No Matter What

Leon Edwards is a savage for accepting Chimaev, because this is a no-win situation. Lets say Edwards comes out and dominates Chimaev, a daunting task based on what we have seen. Leon just justified his current #3 ranking, and the ”talking heads“ will say Chimaev must have been overrated. On the other hand, if Leon loses, he risked that #3 against a guy twelve(!) spots beneath him and is likely to plummet down the board. The risk simply does not match the reward, even if Leon is promised the next title shot behind the scenes. While Leon does deserve that, it will be hard to make happen depending on the potential Covington/Masvidal fight repercussions, especially if Usman retains his belt. The UFC is a business, after all, and unless Edwards wins in devastating fashion, he could see himself on the outside looking in yet again. Overall, this move has the potential to be extremely damaging to Leon’s career, while offering very minimal upside.

What to Expect vs Chimaev

Gauging Chimaev has proven to be a challenge, because he has so thoroughly dominated his opposition. Edwards has shown an ability to survive elite grappling, as he did in his loss to Usman in 2015. Upon rewatching, Edwards does an excellent job against Usman’s pressure initially, but eventually slows down and struggles to keep Usman at bay. Because that fight is from so long ago, it offers very little concrete study material. Besides, MMA math doesn‘t work, so how Edwards did vs Usman has little bearing on how he will fare vs Chimaev. Another wildcard is Chimaev’s hands; he viciously knocked out Gerald Meerschaert in just 17 seconds in his most recent fight. Edwards will boast the advantage of experience, though, as Chimaev’s three fights do not add up to a full round (combined 4:38 fight times). I think if Edwards survives round one he is likely to win the fight, but the unknown factor of Chimaev’s ability makes this an intriguing matchup with massive implications for the entire division.

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