Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football

Lions Projections: Hakuna Matata

Motor City! Detroit is coming into 2020 with a pretty potent offense. Will Stafford be healthy? Is Swift the future? Lots of questions. In case you missed it, we just covered the Chicago Bears. Now buckle up, and put the pedal to the metal as we speed into the Lions 2020 projections.

QB:

Matt Stafford has thrown a lot of TDs. And led a lot of waves. And asked lots of crowds to stand. What he is doing here, nobody knows…

Matthew Stafford: Passing: 378/579-4,625, 28 TD: 11 INT
Rushing: 26-79, 7 FMBL
Standard: 286.9 (13)
0.5 PPR: 286.9 (13)
1 PPR: 286.9 (13)

Chase Daniel: Passing: Look, nobody wants to go through any more Stafford injuries. Technically, he should not be passing in any meaningful way, ever.
Rushing: he has 50 career rushes for 102 Yds. He doesn’t do much rushing, considering he is entering his 10th year as a backup quarterback.

Before we get to Stafford, I mean honestly guys, Chase Daniel is living his best life! He is a career backup who keeps getting signed to cover, he has started 5 career games, is 2-3, and yet continues making teams as a backup, due to his career 68.3 completion percentage I suspect. Good for you Chase, backup QB is not the worst place to be!

On to the main guy, Matthew Stafford. He was on pace to finish very, very high in 2019. This offense has weapons all over the field in 2020. Stafford missed time for the first time since the 2010 season, and his early career injury concerns seem to have grown like wildfire. But I am not buying it. 8 straight 16 game seasons dispels any injury concern in my book. I expect Stafford to be back, and with the cast he has assembled around him, Detroit is going to light some teams up.

RB:

Swift can run. Swift has RB1 upside. But Swift plays for Detroit…. oh no. Hold your horses, everyone, this ain’t your older cousins Detroit Lions

D’Andre Swift: Rushing: 183-794-6 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 45 targets, 37 catches, 381 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 164.5 (25)
0.5 PPR: 183 (24)
1 PPR: 201.5 (23)

Kerryon Johnson: Rushing: 164-656-5 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 34 targets, 26 catches, 226 Yds, 1TD
Standard: 123.2 (36)
0.5 PPR: 136.2 (38)
1 PPR: 149.2 (38)

Bo Scarbrough: Rushing: 19-78, 1 TD
Receiving: 3 targets, 1 catch, 8 Yds
Standard: 14.4 (94)
0.5 PPR: 14.9 (94)
1 PPR: 15.4 (96)

The Lions are gonna be able to run the ball in 2020, largely in thanks to Swift. Swift was everyone’s pre-combine pre-draft RB1 coming into the year. I tend to remind myself, the combine has little to do with actual performance, and drafts are about wants and needs team wide. Detroit needed an RB, and they may have acquired the best one. Swift has little in terms of weaknesses. He is essentially a complete back. He will likely earn bellcow carries in 2021, but maybe late 2020 happens or Kerryon goes down. I like getting some Swift exposure if possible, guys. His floor feels incredibly safe, and his ceiling is high.

Kerryon should offer flex upside. He will get a solid share of touches this year, enough to remain relevant in flex spots. But this is going to be the Swift show sooner rather than later. Unless Kerryon has a huge year, his time with the Lions is limited. And Scarbrough only becomes relevant if both of those guys goes down.

WR:

Kenny G, this man is really, really good. He checks all the boxes, and jumping over people is always cool, isn’t it?

Kenny Golladay: Receiving: 129 targets, 74 catches, 1,218 Yds, 9 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 174.8 (6)
0.5 PPR: 211.8 (7)
1 PPR: 248.8 (8)

Marvin Jones: Rushing: 2-16
Receiving: 103 targets, 64 catches, 892 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 126.8 (35)
0.5 PPR: 158.8 (35)
1 PPR: 190.8 (35)

Danny Amendola: Receiving: 78 targets, 59 catches, 528 Yds, 2 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 63.8 ( 77)
0.5 PPR: 93.3 (65)
1 PPR: 122.8 (65)

Quintez Cephus: Receiving: 50 targets, 33 catches, 418 Yds 2 TD
Standard: 53.8 (90)
0.5 PPR: 70.3 (88)
1 PPR: 86.8 (87)

Chris Lacy: Receiving: 17 targets, 10 catches, 110 Yds
Standard: 11 (143)
0.5 PPR: 16 (141)
1 PPR: 21 ( 139 )

Golladay is a star. He has an incredibly safe floor, and his ceiling is about as high as it gets. This man led the NFL in receiving TDs last year. He turns 27 entering his 4th year, and it is entirely possible he is not done improving. Golladay is a WR1. Period. Get him and enjoy a year with a healthy Stafford. It’s better than Blough.

Marvin Jones is elite when it comes to second WR options on their teams. Since Golladay arrived. Jones has averaged 7.7 TDs per year, and the guy manages to have 4 TD games. Seriously, he wins weeks. In Bestball, I love this guy.

Amendola offers a safe-floor, low ceiling option as flex depth. Cephus intrigues me more, he offers a no floor, moderate ceiling option as flex depth. Please ignore Lacy, and instead grab Amendola late as a safe backup or Cephus late as a flier.

TE:

We know what Hock can do in college. I expect we are gonna see that in the pros in 2020. He has no real weakness, except for apparently his spiking form.

T.J. Hockenson: Receiving: 89 targets, 54 catches, 638 Yds, 5 TD
Standard: 93.8 (9)
0.5 PPR: 120.8 (8)
1 PPR: 147.8 (9)

Jesse James: Receiving: 31 targets, 20 catches, 208 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 26.8 (54)
0.5 PPR: 36.8 (52)
1 PPR: 46.8 (49)

Sign me up for some Hock in 2020! He has exceptional upside, and while his floor remains low, I do not believe he doesn’t at least put up average numbers. His trajectory is pointing up and Stafford is healthy. They have a run game. All signs point to Hockenson making a big step in his development in 2020. Don’t be shocked to see the Lions TE ranked as a top 10 TE coming into 2021. Maybe higher.

Jesse James is a placeholder at this point in his career. He is a serviceable backup and secondary option, but nothing more in the league, and he likely does not belong on any rosters except as a Hockenson handcuff.

I project the Lions to score 1,322.8 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is good for 7th. Wow, 7th?! This offense has ridiculous value and isn’t targeted like other high-powered offenses are. Take advantage, specifically of Hockenson and Stafford. They aren’t getting the love they deserve.

Ok Lions fans, there is hope again, but I am sure all of you are aware that these are the Lions, and Murphy’s Law has seemed pretty accurate lately. But I am investing in Detroit! Call me Ford, or GM. Or don’t do that. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Green Bay Packers.