Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Rams Projections: Unknowns

The Sean McVay offense didn’t look so hot without an elite line in 2019. With all those studs they have, the results just weren’t there. What can we expect in 2020? In case you missed it, we just checked out the San Francisco 49ers. Now, let’s go to Hollywood, where the lights are bright, and hang out with the stars. And the Rams.

QB:

Is it just me, or does Goff look confused in this picture? That’s how I see him, as a bit confused.

Jared Goff: Passing: 368/584-4,349 Yds, 26 TD: 13 INT
Rushing: 36-46-1 TD: 11 FMBL
Standard: 264.56 (22)
0.5 PPR: 264.56 (22)
1 PPR: 264.56 (22)

John Wolford: Passing: Time. Wolford intrigues me. He is an excellent athlete. If Goff goes down, he could be streamable.
Rushing: He is good at this. Perhaps McVay weaponizes him ala Taysom Hill.

Ok Goff lovers and Rams fans, don’t freak out just yet. Goff is less than 11 points away from being my QB16. I just don’t think he will be a QB1 this year. The line is a problem, and the run game might be too. In fantasy, Goff regressed in a big way, and he has little to no rushing ability to raise his floor. But I can’t get his 22 TD 2019 out of my head, and fear using him as anything other than a backup QB. He will have big weeks, but I no longer feel comfortable relying solely on him as my QB.

Also, keep an eye on Wolford. If Goff goes down, this guy can run, and through that alone would be worthy of QB2 status. Just be careful in leagues that INTs hurt you badly in.

RB:

Akers is incredibly talented, and his college situation was really bad. For real. His stats are misleading, and he could explode.

Cam Akers: Rushing: 183-802-7 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 41 targets, 29 catches, 226 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 153.8 (29)
0.5 PPR: 168.3 (29)
1 PPR: 182.8 (30)

Darrell Henderson: Rushing: 119-501-5 TD: 2 FMBL
Receiving: 40 targets, 31 catches, 279 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 118 (40)
0.5 PPR: 133.5 (40)
1 PPR: 149 (39)

Malcolm Brown: Rushing: 36-138-2 TD
Receiving: 10 targets, 5 catches, 46 Yds
Standard: 30.4 (76)
0.5 PPR: 32.9 (79)
1 PPR: 35.4 (81)

John Kelly: Rushing: 7-29
Receiving: 3 targets, 1 catch, 8 Yds
Standard: 3.7 (105)
0.5 PPR: 4.2 (105)
1 PPR: 4.7 (105)

Akers could explode… but he could also still have a terrible line. Henderson too. I suspect Akers gets the most touches, but if the Rams line is better, both of these guys could be worthy of targeting. Henderson has been sliding a whole bunch, and he could be a solid flex depth option. Akers is just outside RB2 status, but he has a high enough ceiling to be intriguing. I have more shares of Henderson just because he seems to slide way too far.

Ignore the other two for 2020. Neither should be relevant in fantasy. Brown could approach relevancy if any injuries happen above him.

WR:

Kupp and Woods are both guys with WR1 potential. And I think they are on the same swim team.

Cooper Kupp: Rushing: 3-17, 2 FMBL
Receiving: 120 targets, 82 catches, 1,069 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 142.6 (23)
0.5 PPR: 183.6 (19)
1 PPR: 224.6 (18)

Robert Woods: Rushing: 16-111, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 123 targets, 80 catches, 1,013 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 135.4 (27)
0.5 PPR: 175.4 (26)
1 PPR: 215.4 (24)

Josh Reynolds: Receiving: 62 targets, 31 catches, 418 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 53.8 (91)
0.5 PPR: 69.3 (89)
1 PPR: 84.8 (88)

Van Jefferson: Receiving: 32 targets, 18 catches, 238 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 41.8 (99)
0.5 PPR: 50.8 (100)
1 PPR: 59.8 (101)

Nsimba Webster: Receiving: 5 targets, 2 catches, 31 Yds
Standard: 3.1 (165)
0.5 PPR: 4.1 (169)
1 PPR: 5.1 (169)

Here we are Rams fans. I know there are Woods and Kupp truthers out there. I acknowledge they both have WR1 potential. But I project neither finishes as WR1s. I don’t believe Goff will just be better in 2020. The line has issues. The backs are unknown. And part of me thinks McVay’s offense is getting worked out by opposing defenses. Look, I view those two guys projections as basically their respective floors. I don’t blame anyone for targeting either, because they are both safe bets to finish top 30 easily, and could both be top 10. But I have minimal exposure simply because they go too early for my taste.

Reynolds will be a solid WR, but I don’t believe it translates to fantasy in 2020. I am intrigued with him in dynasty though. Jefferson too. Both of them have big-game potential, but will lack consistency and therefore are gonna be tough to start regularly. Nsimba has an awesome name, but no way should he be rostered.

TE:

Not who you expected to see here, is it? Sorry Higbee, but Everett is gonna be TE1 for the Rams in fantasy.

Gerald Everett: Receiving: 70 targets, 42 catches, 495 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 73.5 (22)
0.5 PPR: 94.5 (22)
1 PPR: 115.5 (24)

Tyler Higbee: Receiving: 73 targets, 45 catches, 504 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 68.4 (26)
0.5 PPR: 90.9 (27)
1 PPR: 113.4 (26)

Brycen Hopkins: Receiving: 5 targets, 2 catches, 22 Yds
Standard: 2.2 (83)
0.5 PPR: 3.2 (83)
1 PPR: 4.2 (83)

Yep, I stand by it too. Everett will finish 2020 with more fantasy points than Higbee. Higbee is getting taken way too early. Everett in 3 years, 45 games, 4 starts: 142 targets, 86 catches, 972 Yds, 11.3 YPC, 7 TDs. Higbee in 4 years, 63 games, 54 starts: 197 targets, 129 catches, 1,406 Yds, 10.9 YPC, 7 TDs. If you break that down to a per game level, it leaves a clear picture that Everett has been more effective than Higbee. Higbee has been healthier, no doubt, but Everett has scored at a way higher rate. And accumulated stats at a way higher rate.

This leads me to believe that Everett is the TE to own for the Rams. Higbee is solid as depth, which is really what Everett is too. But a healthy Everett to me has more upside than Higbee. I am ready for the spears, Higbee truthers. Send enough, and I will just fight in the shade.

I project the Rams to score 1,245.26 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is 20th. They have way higher upside, but I am down on the Rams in 2020. If you think I am stupid, get a lot of exposure to this team. I personally like Kupp and Woods, and feel Akers or Henderson could pay off big time, but so much of this team relies on the play of the offensive line, which is why I am so very concerned.

Thanks for reading. Rams fans, don’t be too mad, I could be wrong. And 20th isn’t that bad in all reality. Still within the middle tier. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Seattle Seahawks.