Hello again everyone, and welcome to Miami, where the heat is on, all night on the beach til the break of dawn. In case you missed it, last time we analyzed the Buffalo Bills. Today, we move on to the Miami Dolphins. What can we expect from these aquatic mammals in 2020? I’m so glad you asked. And if you didn’t ask, you should have. Because this stuff is important. Kinda.

QB:

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Passing: 135/210-1,506. 12:6 TD:INT
Rushing: 21-93 1 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 116.3(33)
0.5 PPR: 116.3(33)
1 PPR: 116.3 (33)

Tua Tagovailoa: Passing: 144/230-2,009. 14:10 TD:INT
Rushing: 14-74-0 TD: 3 FMBL
Standard: 130.4 (32)
0.5 PPR: 130.4 (32)
1 PPR: 130.4 (32)

Ahh, the first of a few teams where neither quarterback will start all 16 games. Right now, I am seeing Fitzmagic playing 6 games, Tua 10. They drafted Tua to be their QB of the future. This team has its fair share of weapons. They should have a more solid line in 2020. They are going to want to see Tua in action this year. So they will let the beard start off the season while Tua continues learning, and hand the reigns over to him after 6 weeks. Tua will have some growing pains, but he should give the Dolphins what they are looking for heading into 2021. However, I am avoiding him in redraft this year, simply because I think he is going to take a bit of time to adjust to the NFL.

Brace yourselves, football fans. This could very well be the last year we get to see Fitzpatrick play. The Dolphins seem to be keeping him around to mentor Tua. I for one will be sad to see him go. He is fun to watch play football. I would not dissuade you from snagging him in redraft if your guy has an early bye, but the risk that Tua starts earlier is a real one. Therefore, it might be best in redraft to just avoid this quarterback situation entirely. The value on this team lies elsewhere.

An ode to Fitzmagic: “Dear Fitzmagic, thank you for all the fun. Thank you for the way you play football. You have never been that good, but you were always good enough to keep things interesting, and you won so many of us fantasy games. You also lost us more. But it was always fun. Never change, never grow up, and never shave. Please become an analyst, because you are freaking smart. You are the pride of Harvard, and of bearded guys everywhere. I will cherish these last games. Make us proud, buddy. I wish I could say see you in the Hall of Fame, but people would stop reading if I did. So I will see you in my imaginary hall of fun, running up and down the field like a child, your beard flowing in the breeze, calculus equations rattling around in that enormous brain of yours. It was a pleasure sir.”

RB:

Jordan Howard: Rushing: 150-675-8 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 22 targets, 13 catches, 118 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 132.3 (34)
0.5 PPR:138.8 (37)
1 PPR:145.3 (39)

Matt Breida: Rushing: 110-530-3 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 24 targets, 15 catches, 140 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 90 (46)
0.5 PPR: 97.5 (48)
1 PPR: 105 (50)

Kalen Ballage: Rushing: 23-94-0 TD
Receiving: 3 targets, 2 catches, 17 Yds
Standard: 11.1 (96)
0.5 PPR: 12.1 (99)
1 PPR:13.1 (100)

Ok, let me be clear here. I like both of these backs. And if i figured either could get over 200 touches, I would be all over them. The problem is, neither will. They complement each other perfectly. Howard will do the bruising, and Breida the cruising. While you may think Breida is the more prolific pass-catcher, Howard actually has the better pass-catching season on his resume. However, Breida has never been the featured back. These guys will be useful, as long as you don’t plan on starting them week in and week out. Treat them like depth at RB and flex, and know you should get solid albeit unspectacular production from them. Each should have a big game or two, but neither should win you a ship.

Kalen Ballage, you are the odd man out bud. The two guys ahead of you are actually pretty good. Sucks for you. Do not draft this guy unless you think Howard or Breida goes down. And if either do, Ballage should only see a slight uptick in touches. The real benefit will be to whoever is still healthy between the first two. An injury to either could push them above that 200 touch threshold, where these guys could produce serious numbers. However, don’t reach for either, as it literally will take an injury for either of them to significantly outperform their value.

WR:

DeVante Parker: Receiving: 115 targets, 78 catches, 1,150 Yds, 9 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 168 (8)
0.5 PPR: 207 (9)
1 PPR: 246 (9)

Preston Williams: Receiving: 91 targets, 57 catches, 740 Yds, 5 TD: 2 FMBL
Standard: 100.1 (46)
0.5 PPR: 130.6 (47)
1 PPR: 161.1 (48)

Allen Hurns: Receiving: 41 targets, 22 catches, 286 Yds, 1 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 24 (113)
0.5 PPR: 31 (114)
1 PPR: 38 (113)

Albert Wilson: Rushing: 5-41-0 TD
Receiving: 23 targets, 14 catches, 139 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 33.6 (106)
0.5 PPR: 44.6 (105)
1 PPR: 55.6 (104)

Ricardo Louis: Receiving: 11 targets, 5 catches, 46 Yds.
Standard: 4.6 (158)
0.5 PPR: 7.1 (157)
1 PPR: 9.6 (157)

Isaiah Ford: Receiving: 6 targets, 3 catches, 29 Yds.
Standard: 2.9 (168)
0.5 PPR: 4.4 (169)
1 PPR: 5.9 (169)

Here come some guys I am really high on. Parker was a revelation late in 2019, and I think a lot of that had to do with him getting out of Adam Gase’s shadow/nightmare. He shined with Fitzmagic, but I think he elevates his game to become basically QB proof, and Tua will go to him often if he wants to look good. Parker is a bonafide stud at WR. I have no reservations taking him as the 9th WR. This guy can ball, he showed out last year, and his trajectory is pointing up. Going into his age 27 season, he is far and away the best receiver in his division.

Preston Williams flashed serious potential in 2019, although an injury derailed what looked to be a promising season. His stats when extrapolated to 16 games? 120 targets, 64 catches, 856 yards, 6 TDs. That is some serious production for a team’s WR2. A pretty bad team at that. Miami will be improved in many ways this year. Expect Williams to capitalize on the space created for him by this improved offense. Plenty of people are high on him coming into this year. I get it. He could outproduce these projections. The QB play is a question mark for me. But the talent is there.

As for the rest of these guys, if you draft them, please come join all my leagues. There won’t be enough targets for any of them to make any real difference fantasy-wise. Wilson is a gadget player at best, Hurns is a known commodity with a limited ceiling, and the other guys, just say no. Trust me on this. Especially considering how I feel about the next guy.

TE:

Mike Gesicki: Receiving: 95 targets, 66 catches, 816 Yds. 7 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 138.9 (3)
0.5 PPR: 155.6 (4)
1 PPR: 188.6 (5)

Durham Smythe: Receiving: 9 targets, 4 catches, 34 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 9.4 (71)
0.5 PPR: 11.4 (71)
1 PPR: 13.4 (73)

Hear me out. Mike Gesicki is the next big thing at TE. If you saw my Knox comments, magnify those twofold for Gesicki. I am blinded by his light. He shines bright like a diamond. Magic Mike is a superstar. 89 targets, 51 catches, 570 yards and 5 TDs last year. His 40 mirrors Preston Williams at 4.55, he has a 41.5 inch vertical. he is 6’6″, 250 lbs. He is a physical specimen. I keep hearing about Chan Gailey’s offense and the lack of usage of the TE. However, the last time he had anyone close to as physically impressive as Gesicki, was Tony Gonzalez in 2008. Gonzo had over 1,000 yards that season. Gailey will use his best players. Outside Parker, Gesicki is his best option. Don;t be surprised to see Gesicki lined up in the slot. This is a serious problem for defenses.

I am looking at talent more than situation. And as far as talent goes, there are zero (yes, zero) TEs with the talent Gesicki has naturally. His total package is ridiculous, and yes, that’s what she said. Stop over-studying, stop putting so much effort into scouting and predicting that you ignore the freak of nature TE right in front of you. He is bigger, nearly as fast, stronger, and jumps higher, than Mr. Kittle. He has displayed countless times his ability to make big plays. And now, his team knows what they have. In year three, Gesicki is going to put it all together. Hell he started the process late in year two. I will die on this hill. Mike Gesicki is going to erupt. Do not miss this freight train. I am driving that sucker. Please, listen to me. This is the move you make that wins you the title. TE1 is a real possibility. TE5 is his floor. Enjoy this nugget, thank me later.

I have the Dolphins scoring 1087.3 points in 0.5 PPR formats. which is rank 30. However, my exposure to Parker and Gesicki are through the roof. Do it fools.

Thanks for all the fish! I want to hear from all of you blowholes. Appreciate the read. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the New York Jets!